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I had a meeting with Sen. Gillibrand today... [1]
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Date: 2025-02-03
..focusing on both New York election performance (she was the driving force behind our first coordinated campaign) and the 2026 Senate contests (she’s Chair of the DSCC for this cycle).
The first part was some cold, dark reality on the Harris performance. The unpleasant fact is that every County in NY shifted towards Trump vs the vote in 2020:
Statewide: +11 Trump
Bronx: +22 Trump
Queens: +21 Trump
Staten Island: +15 Trump
Nassau County: +14 Trump
Brooklyn: +11 Trump
This reflects every demographic: upper class, working class, white, black, asian, hispanic. The problem (encountered nationwide) was especially bad in big cities in “safe” Democratic States.
A core problem is that, while voters still support “Democratic Issues” (cracking down on rent gouging, access to reproductive rights and contraceptives, support for comprehensive immigration reform) many swing voters focused on candidate personalities (“experience to get things done”:Trump+37 ; “a strong and decisive leader”: Trump+33; “represents change”: Trump+12).
Add to which, Republicans have been able to sell a message that Democrats care about “others” rather than “you” (which was the real impact of the Trump Trans ad).
The good news is the Democrat House candidates all outperformed the top of the ticket, resulting in three new seats and one hold out of the five competitive races. And reproductive rights, which Trump was able to muddle his position on, is still a potent issue for down ballot races.
With respect to the Senate, there is not currently a clear path to a Democratic majority. The Republicans have more seats up but only two are immediately seen as vulnerable (NC and Maine). Meanwhile we are likely to have an open Primary to hold Michigan.
Successes in 2024 (wins in MI, AZ and WI and over-performance vs the Presidential candidate almost everywhere) focused on:
framing each Senate race as a candidate specific contrast not connected to partisanship or the top of the ticket
Early messaging on lowering costs and economic priorities
Early messaging on border security
Defining Republican opponents early and aggressively in both earned media and paid media
General discussion in the room focused on more Dem-leaning Independents to run in traditionally Red contests (Dan Osborn in Nebraska did surprisingly well but peaked early, allowing Republicans to focus attacks on him).
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