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Ukraine Invasion Day 1,071: RU continues sabotage and destabilization campaign against NATO states [1]
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Date: 2025-01-28
Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 27 to 28.
A senior NATO official acknowledged that Russia is escalating a sabotage and destabilization campaign against European NATO member states to deter further military assistance to Ukraine. NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai stated at the European Parliament on January 28 that NATO states have faced acts of sabotage in recent years, including train derailments, arson, attacks against politicians' property, and assassination plots against defense industry figures, including a Kremlin plot to assassinate Rheinmetall Head Armin Papperger.[18] Appathurai emphasized that the Kremlin aims to "create disquiet to undermine support for Ukraine" and called for NATO states to more assertively deter Russian sabotage acts.[19] The Kremlin has consistently attempted to use information operations to deter Western states from providing additional military assistance to Ukraine.[20] The Kremlin's sabotage and destabilization campaign directly targeting NATO states supports ISW's assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin sees Russia as waging a hybrid war directly against NATO.[21]
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 100 Shahed and decoy drones from Oryol, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea .[80] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 65 drones over Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kherson oblasts; that 28 decoy drones were “lost,” likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference; that two drones flew toward Russian and Belarusian airspace; and that one drone remained in the air as of 0930 local time. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian strikes damaged civilian infrastructure in Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Odesa oblasts.[81] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian strikes damaged a critical infrastructure facility in Umanskyi Raion, Cherkasy Oblast, and caused temporary power outages in 72 settlements in the raion.[82] Odesa Oblast Head Oleh Kiper reported that Russian missile and drone strikes on the morning of January 28 damaged civilian infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.[83]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on January 28 but did not make any confirmed advances. A Ukrainian brigade operating in Kursk Oblast posted footage on January 28 showing Ukrainian drones repelling a reinforced platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault in an unspecified area of Kursk Oblast.[22] The Russian MoD claimed that elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade advanced along the Snagost River and participated in the seizure of Nikolayevo-Darino (west of Sudzha).[23] ...Russian sources claimed that Russian forces recently repelled a Ukrainian infantry attack near Nikolskyi.[26] Elements of the Russian 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Pogrebki (northwest of Sudzha), and elements of the 5th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (98th VDV Division), 106th VDV Division, and 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) reportedly continue to operate in Kursk Oblast.[27]
Russian security forces told Kremlin newswire TASS on January 28 that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group operating near Bilopillya, Sumy Oblast across the international border from Tetkino, Kursk Oblast.[28] ISW has not observed independent confirmation of this claim.
The North Korean force grouping in Kursk Oblast reportedly continues to suffer significant manpower losses and may be temporarily withdrawing from combat operations due to these losses. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko stated on January 28 that North Korean forces have not learned to counter Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes and have suffered significant losses as a result.[29] Kovalenko stated that Russian commanders and North Korean officers are working to remedy these "mistakes." A Ukrainian special operations commander told Sky News on January 27 that North Korean troops appear to have temporarily withdrawn from the frontline in Kursk Oblast after suffering significant losses and may be tending to wounded servicemembers or waiting for additional reinforcements.[30] The Ukrainian commander suggested that North Korean troops will return to combat soon, however. Other Ukrainian servicemembers told Sky News that North Korean forces appeared unaware of the threat of drone and artillery strikes when they first arrived in Kursk Oblast and often operated in easily identifiable groups of 20 to 60 personnel.[31] The Ukrainian servicemembers reiterated that North Korean and Russian forces have poor communication due to the language barrier and that North Korean forces have higher quality small arms and uniforms than Russian forces but often lack access to armored vehicles and must attack and transport supplies on foot.
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