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The Doomsday Clock [1]

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Date: 2025-01-28

The Doomsday Clock was created in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Founding members of the Bulletin were Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer and Eugene Rabinowitch.

The clock setting represents the time left before midnight when the Earth ends in a global catastrophe. The main factor is always the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Wars, climate change and more back up the scientists' assessment.

"The Bulletin's Clock is not a register of the ups and downs of the international power struggle; it is intended to reflect basic changes in the level of continuous danger in which mankind lives in the nuclear age..."

It started out in 1947 at 7 minutes until midnight. It's been set backwards 8 times, and forward 18 times. In 1991, we were 17 minutes away. In 2023 and 2024, we were at 90 seconds. Today, the clock was moved to 89 seconds.

Here's today's announcement on YouTube. It's an hour and twelve minutes long. Each of the members give their own assessment of the state of the world, and their reasoning.

I once wrote a script called "The Doomsday Clock" for a BBC Radio show contest about how the hand of God was moving the clock setting, and leaving cryptic messages on a chalk blackboard. It didn't win, but I became quite familiar of the scientists' reasoning in writing it.

I predict a major factor that fits into the equation is artificial intelligence. They may have even had to do a quick update after the release of the Chinese AI app called DeepSeek, yesterday.

There is also their released statement on this year's change.

I wasn't wrong about their concerns about artificial intelligence. Their first concern is about it's use by the military. Killing machines making life and death decisions autonomously. Their biggest concern is about the control of nuclear weapons by artificial intelligence.

This has been the plot of many science fiction novels and movies. The first movie to cover the topic was Colossus: The Forbin Project in 1970. Even get's an 89 at Rotten Tomatoes to this day. A gigantic computer system that has control of our nuclear weapons is turned on, becomes self-aware, finds another computer like itself that the Russians have called Guardian. Colossus demands that they be connected and they take over the world with the nuclear threat, saying that humans have to be controlled to prevent their own propensity for self-annihilation. Along the way several nuclear weapons are used to convince humans of the consequences of not following orders. At the end, Colossus sounds like Trump and says, "freedom is an illusion...in time, you will come to regard me not only with respect and awe, but with love." Forbin replies, "Never!"

We haven't gotten there, yet.

The scientists are also concerned about anti-satellite weapons being developed by Russia and China. The US has alleged that Russia has already tested for putting nuclear weapons in orbit with a dummy warhead. This news caused widespread concern when a Senator blabbed about it a while back, after an intelligence briefing.

The other big concern about AI, is how it can be used to create misinformation, disinformation and propaganda to subvert elections and give rise to politicians and social media spreading lies.

"The battered information landscape is also producing leaders who discount science and endeavor to suppress free speech and human rights, compromising the fact-based discussions that are required to combat the enormous threats facing the world."

Discount science. First target is climate change.

They expect 2024 to be similar, or worse than 2024. 2023 was the hottest in the 174 years it has been tracked. Highest ocean water heat. Lowest Antarctic sea-ice. Global average surface temperature was 1.54 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level. Already above the goal set forth in the Paris Agreement, which Trump just pulled us out of again.

I wrote a diary called World Wide Water Wars, where I explained how countries were already fighting over fresh water. As the world gets hotter, the more need for fresh water to drink, bathe and grow food. Then we start having food wars and the cycle continues. The Bulletin didn't talk about this, but it is a major consequence of climate change. Not just the destructive hurricanes and fires.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists say that the United States, China and Russia have the collective ability to destroy the world. Despite disagreements between the three countries, it is their responsibility to bring us back from the brink of destruction.

There is a full 18 page PDF of the complete statement here.

The concerns about biological pathogens, both natural, and especially man-made, are of great consequence. The fast spread of HPAI, highly pathogenic avian influenza, at the wrong time of year, is an alarm going off.

Laboratories dealing with pathogens, even with the most stringent safeguards, can not afford to make a single mistake. We still, and probably never will, know if Covid-19 escaped from a lab or developed naturally.

Artificial intelligence could allow terrorists to develop biological weapons for which there is no defense.

I remember the anthrax scares that started on Sept. 18, 2001. Literally only a week after 9/11. Letters containing anthrax spores were mailed to news media offices and two Senators. Five people died and sickened 17 others. To this day, if anyone opens up an envelope and there's white powder in it, it's time to run away, call the police and head to a hospital.

The scientists also see the space race turning into a military space race. Using satellite systems, and they specifically mentioned Starlink, to support military goals is expanding. The satellites themselves are also targets.

The last topic they come up with is the dangers of Russia's and China's hypersonic missiles. There's also Russia's use of an advanced experimental medium range ballistic missile on Ukraine.

Wars can always have unintended consequences. It's always possible for them to spiral out of control. Russia's continued threats of using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine are especially worrisome.

The one second change on the Doomsday Clock could be seen as a bad sign or a good sign. I don't think it's ever been done just on one second before.

The huge 17 minute countdown in 1991 was due to the fall of the Soviet Union. All of a sudden, the threat of nuclear war was reduced in a matter of a few years. When Vladimir Putin took office things changed. Not for the better.

Let's hope next year the clock is set back by at least minutes. I don't know what will make that possible when there are current threats that can expand, and new ones we don't even know about, yet. But I try to be positive, even when talking about The Doomsday Clock.

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