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Coffee Will Be Getting More Expensive, Blame Climate Change [1]
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Date: 2025-01-26
Whether you call it Java, Brew, Joe, Dirt, Mud, Cuppa, or simply coffee, whether it is perked, pressed, siphoned or dripped, the price of your morning cup is going to get more expensive because of climate change. Tariffs rules, trade wars, and new technologies are not going to help. The beans are in trouble!
When I was in high school in the 1960s, I worked on Saturdays as the counterman at a luncheonette and a cup or a container of coffee cost 15 cents. By the time I started college the price was a quarter. Because of inflation, 25 cents in 1967 would be $2.36 today, but I recently purchased a small container of coffee at Starbucks for $3.50 plus tax. According to some reports, the price of a cup of coffee in London and New York approaching £5 or $7 for a cup. The price of arabica coffee beans rose almost 70% on the New York Stock Exchange in 2024 and the wholesale price of coffee beans on the world market jumped more than 30 percent in just the last three months There are many explanations for the skyrocketing cost of coffee, but climate change is the big one. According to Elizabeth Shapiro-Garza, associate professor o at Duke University, “Coffee is the canary in the coal mine for climate change and its effect on agriculture.”
Coffee only grows under very specific conditions. It requires warm, humid days with cool evenings and soil free of disease, so hilly regions in tropical zones are best for production. The beans grow on small evergreen trees between 10 and 40 feet tall. Arabica beans grow at higher altitudes and are sensitive to changes in temperature and humidity. Some areas of Hawaii are the only region in the United States where coffee trees can flourish. Droughts in major coffee producers Brazil and Vietnam are already driving up coffee prices around the world. Brazil, the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee, the bean most used in premium coffee blends, has its driest weather conditions in decades. The Minas Gerais region, which produces 30% of Brazil’s coffee beans has had almost no rain for the past three years. Vietnam is the major producer of robusta coffee beans used to make expresso and instant coffee.
It is projected that climate change will drastically reduce suitable coffee-growing regions by 2050, maybe by as much as 50%. In Central America, about 1/3 of the farmland used in coffee bean agriculture will no longer support coffee growing and in another 1/3 conditions will require major adaptations to in order to sustain production.
Rising coffee prices are only a small measure of the impact of climate change. Extreme weather caused events, flooding, forest fires, winds, blizzards, droughts, the spread of diseases to new areas, and insect and rodent infestations are reminiscent of the 10 biblical plagues of Egypt. Maybe God, if there is a God, is angry at humanity for defiling his or her creation.
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