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About That Lab Leak Theory [1]

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Date: 2025-01-26

Yesterday, the CIA publicly released its low confidence assessment that the SARS-CoV II virus that causes COVID was a result of a lab leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. To deal with the obvious and simple part of this first, the announcement is certainly politically motivated. Although the assessment appears to predate the new administration, according to CNN, “But the determination to declassify and make that assessment public represents one of the first major moves by Ratcliffe, who has long favored the theory….” So, yeah, the announcement is all part of Dodgy Don’s Deflect, Distract and Blame strategy. That may be the only thing we can be absolutely certain about.

That there are two competing stories for the virus’ origin is certainly not news. In fact I was reading a very good article about exactly that a week ago, on the Medical Xpress website (found it through Phys.org, a great source for science news). To very briefly summarize, the article breaks down the respective arguments this way. To read the article yourself, follow the link at bottom.

The case for the lab leak

The earliest cases of COVID emerged in Wuhan, China, while the nearest known bat populations with similar SARS viruses are more than on thousand miles away. The Wuhan Institute of Virology was working with similar viruses apparently doing research that could increase virulence and transmissibility. Also, the behavior of the Chinese government in the aftermath of the outbreak has been consistent with an effort to cover up the virus’ origins.

The case for natural spillover

Virologists on the other hand look at genomic data, geography, and environmental samples from the Huanan Seafood Market and elsewhere. They note that the earliest cases are all a clustered around the market. Researchers looking at genomic data argue that it’s unlikely the virus was circulating widely in humans prior to November 2019. A September 2024 study found other species at the market including raccoon dogs (related to foxes) that can carry SARS type viruses.

For my part, I find the evidence for the lab leak uncompelling, for the same reasons that the CIA would only offer low confidence in that assessment. Wuhan is a huge metropolitan area with a population roughly comparable to the Los Angeles Metropolitan area. Incidentally, it was a huge logistical hub for American forces flying The Hump during WWII. I included the map above to show the distance between the two locations involved. It’s a half hour drive between the two. Blaming an outbreak clustered around the market on a leak at the Virology Institute is a bit like blaming a disease outbreak in Newark, NJ on a lab leak in Manhattan. Certainly not impossible, but it doesn’t seem too likely.

That the intelligence community would lean toward the lab leak theory, should not be surprising. They do not have the medical or biological expertise that that the scientific community does, and they are to a large extent built around the idea that there is no such thing as a coincidence. Coupled with the Chinese government’s penchant for secrecy, especially in a situation that might look bad for them, a lab leak is a perfectly reasonable conclusion. For my part, I suspect the local government did try to cover up the initial outbreak altogether, in order to avoid embarrassment.

So why is the scientific community so certain that the outbreak was a result of natural mutation? According to a study published in September 2021, three corona viruses related to the SARS CoV II virus have been found in bat populations in Laos. These viruses are more similar to the COVID_19 virus than the viruses being studied at The Wuhan Institute. Other studies have shown that the mutations that make SARS CoV II transmissible to to humans are consistent with natural evolution. For a deeper read on the subject, I highly recommend an article from Ethan Siegel on his Medium page Starts-with-a-bang, The link is below.

Allow me a quick edit to add one significant point I left out initially. At the end of the day, I find the debate over whether the virus came out of the market or the lab to be somewhat trivial. The changes to lab security and procedures that should be made to prevent future lab leaks should be made regardless of the source. Likewise, the changes required to prevent diseases from crossing species in an environment like the market should be made regardless of the source of this particular virus. The much more interesting and useful lessons to be learned come after the first cases were identified when the spread had started.

medicalxpress.com/...

medium.com/...

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