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ADAPTIVE INDOMITABLE UKRAINE: Velyka Novosilka-Mokri Yaly River Valley & Attrition of Russians [1]

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Date: 2025-01-26

The news from the battle around Velyka Novozilka is still somewhat hazy and unsettled. The Russians claim to have taken the previously peaceful home of about 5,000 souls, mostly farmers in far Southwestern Donetsk oblast, Ukraine. Videos of Russian forces waving various battle flags in the center of the town.

However, elements of the defending Ukrainian force, especially the 110th Brigade, famed for their stalwart 2 year long stand at Avdiivka, dispute Russia’s claim of complete hold:

According to the 110th Brigade, Russian forces have a significant advantage in infantry numbers. “But we’ve made them bleed and continue to do so. From areas where encirclement was a threat, our units skillfully withdrew using weather conditions to their advantage,” the brigade said. The report added that fighting in Velyka Novosilka continues, with Ukrainian forces focusing on minimizing their own losses while inflicting maximum damage on the enemy. Assessing the enemy’s prospects, the brigade emphasized that Russia would not be able to continue advancing from Velyka Novosilka(emphasis mine). Soldiers noted that this is a typical situation for Russian forces: prioritizing symbolic gains over strategy and outcomes. www.msn.com/...

It is probably safe to say that by the looks of things, Velyka Novosilka, is under Russian control as I write but that the much hoped for Russian dream of an encirclement has not happened. It may be hard for those of us who have Ukraine’s cause at heart to see them withdraw from another town. Once again seemingly performing with relative ease one of the most difficult tactical field maneuvers … a fighting retrograde. The Ukrainian army is re-writing the book on how to do this thing. Something that is likely to become course material for future warriors in military academies the world over. Somehow as hard as they try the Russian Wile E. Coyote just never quite seems to be able to spring the trap on that pesky Ukrainian Road Runner. Yeah, I am old, I know. Lol!

Be that as it may the above excepted quotes from the Ukrainian 110th Brigade also serves to illuminate the kernel of Ukraine’s ongoing strategy … attrit, attrit, attrit and attrit some more … “focusing on minimizing their own losses while inflicting maximum damage on the enemy.” Until the Russian Leviathan is eventually rendered prostate and pusillanimous … unable to go any further.

But at Velyka Novosilka there is an interesting twist. As stated above it is highly likely that Russian forces may not be able to continue advancing from Velyka Novosilka.:

At the same time, the fighters with the 110th Brigade continue to strike at Russian forces, which have trapped themselves by entering Velyka Novosilka. The 110th Brigade with the Ukrainian Armed Forces assures that Russian troops will not be able to move forward from there. "Continuing the offensive from Velyka Novosilka will no longer be possible for Russian troops. It's a typical situation for the Russians – 'the main task is to plant the flag.' The cost and prospects don't matter. The Mokri Yaly River, which created problems for our supply units, has now become an obstacle to the Russian advance. Having entered Velyka Novosilka, the Russians have fallen into a fire trap where they will find no peace; any movement is suppressed by shells and drones," the brigade explained. "As for the city itself, there are no intact buildings left in the settlement," the 110th Brigade concluded.

It all seems like “déja vu all over again”, to quote the old chestnut attributed to a fellow St. Louisan, the late Baseball Hall of Fame NY Yankees catcher, Yogi Berra. Some might recall that the eastern wing of the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive aiming for Mariupol started off from Velyka Novosilka down the Mokri Yaly river valley. And the rural settlements, towns and villages such as Neskuchne, Starozheve, Makarivka, Urozhaine(bloodiest battle in that series), etc, are the same ones that Ukraine battled so hard to take back from the Russians in 2023. Taking advantage of the mostly riverine topography of the area, the Russians mounted a strong defense(part of the famed Surovikin line at Zavitne Bazhannya. The Ukrainian drive faltered here and did not make it to the linchpin Russian fortress at Staromilnivka… roughly half way to Mariupol by road and the sea of Azov from Velyka Novosilka.

Now the tables appear to have turned. The Russians may have taken Velyka Novosilka but it would appear that once again the Ukrainians plan to give the Russians a taste of what they dished out to Ukraine after the Ukrainians retook Urozhaine in 2023 ... here and no farther in the Mokri Yaly river valley. Turnabout is fair play. The Ukrainians will take full advantage of what Russia did to them in 2023 by blowing up the Novodarivka dam to slow the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The river is much wider than it was before Russia destroyed it. It now harbors marshes, forests and high river banks which obscure movement of the defenders and do not leave too many places where the attacking force can attempt a river crossing. And we all know how challenging river crossings have been for the Russians in this war… the disaster at Bilohorivka, the Oskil, the Dnipro and the Sehm(Kursk) to name just a few.

River crossings by their very nature are extremely challenging to pull off successfully, especially if the defenders are aware and have made their defensive dispositions accordingly … eyes everywhere 24/7, well-placed artillery, mine fields and various forms of killer drones by the thousands. And now all river crossing bridges have long disappeared.

If the Russian southern pincer to encircle Pokrovsk is predicated on moving northward along the Mokri Yaly through Velyka Novosilka, the Ukrainians are bound and determined to not let that happen. The Russians will have to take Pokrovsk head on(something they have been reluctant to do but now seem doomed to) or take the long route through Zaporizhizhia oblast for their dream encirclement. That will take a long time … a long slog that will bog down the Russian behemoth and cause it to eventually run out of gas, running on fumes as they currently are anyway. And the Ukrainians will be waiting.

Its all coming into view now, if it wasn’t before….attrit, attrit, attrit and attrit some more. It isn’t sexy but it works. Ukraine may not have millions of disposable mobiks to throw into “meat assaults” but contrary to what Josef Stalin said about quantity having a quality of its own, qualitative technology, which Ukraine now has and continues to develop in abundance, also has a quality all of its own. Putin and the Russians ought to remember their own war history.

SLAVA UKRAINI !

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/1/26/2299427/-ADAPTIVE-INDOMITABLE-UKRAINE-Velyka-Novosilka-Mokri-Yaly-River-Valley-Attrition-of-Russians?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

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