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Overnight Science News: Completely eliminating AI hallucinations is impossible [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-01-25
Artificial Intelligence’s hallucinations are a feature because they promote inventiveness, and also a bug because interspersing fantasies and facts makes statements unreliable. “`They sound like politicians,’ says Santosh Vempala, a theoretical computer scientist at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. They tend to `make up stuff and be totally confident no matter what’.” (Thus aligned with their creators.) While developers have tricks to stop this, they claim “some hallucinatory behaviours might get worse before they get better.”
Other stories this week including one with The Best Headline of 2025—Galactic chaos at cosmic noon may have stunted Milky Way planet formation—plus the following stories.
The eXodus: scientists are exiting X and going to Bluesky because it’s much better for science.
Astronaut’s eyes weaken during long space missions. Even if you could travel to Mars, you might not see it when you get there.
How to navigate uncertainty in an unpredictable world—advice from a statistician.
Mount St Helens, gophers, and how small positive actions can make a big difference.
High fertilizer use in grasslands halves pollinator numbers.
As oceans warm, predators are falling out of sync with prey.
The new science of menopause (there really wasn’t much of an old science TBH).
Why scientists are enlisting fungi to save endangered plants.
Giant iceberg on a collision course with an island full of penguins.
New research shows internal microplastics can cause brain bleeds.
World’s botanic gardens raise alarm as space to protect endangered plants is running out.
How to navigate uncertainty in an unpredictable world—advice from a Great Blue Heron.
x Roughly 6,000 readers answered our poll, with many declaring that Bluesky was nicer, kinder and less antagonistic to science than X
https://go.nature.com/42tH8Ai
[image or embed] — Nature (@nature.com) January 24, 2025 at 3:52 AM
Although the survey is not statistically representative of Nature readers or the scientific community at large, it echoes recent enthusiasm for Bluesky among researchers and disillusionment with X. Of roughly 5,300 readers who responded to a question about X, 53% said they used to be on X but have now left (see ‘Mass exodus’). “Bluesky is much better for science. There is much less toxicity, misinformation, and distractions,” wrote one respondent. “My feed is almost entirely scientists and I actually get updates on research that is relevant and timely,” wrote another.
The low levels of gravity (microgravity) in space cause significant changes in astronauts' eyes and vision after six to 12 months aboard the International Space Station (ISS), according to a study published in the IEEE Open Journal of Engineering in Medicine and Biology. Université de Montréal ophthalmologist Santiago Costantino found that at least 70% of astronauts on the ISS have been affected by spaceflight-associated neuro-ocular syndrome, or SANS. [...] "Weightlessness alters the distribution of blood in the body, increasing blood flow to the head and slowing venous circulation in the eye," explained Costantino. "This is probably what causes the expansion of the choroid, the vascular layer that nourishes the retina."
How to navigate uncertainty in an unpredictable world — nature
The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck David Spiegelhalter Pelican (2024)
Spiegelhalter, a renowned statistician, has crafted a masterful examination of how to understand, measure and communicate uncertainty. His great ability to translate complex statistical concepts into accessible language is fully on display. Drawing from decades of experience, he neatly weaves together historical anecdotes, real-world examples and rigorous statistical analyses to provide a comprehensive overview. This book asks how we can use data and statistical analysis to make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. It equips readers with the tools to think critically about risk and chance, enabling them to make better choices in their lives. Spiegelhalter exposes the limitations of intuitive reasoning about uncertainty, advocating replacing gut feelings with evidence-based analysis. He encourages readers to question their assumptions and demonstrates how even seemingly straightforward questions can have surprisingly complex answers.
x This is a science 🧪 story about Mount St Helens, and gophers, and how small positive actions can, in time, make a big difference. I thought a few of you might need to hear it this week. (1/x) 🧵 — Margaret Harris (@drmlharris.bsky.social) 2025-01-23T21:45:50.575Z
When Mount St Helens erupted in May of 1980, it blew itself apart, blanketing its surroundings in a cubic mile of rock and ash. Around 57 people were killed, along with thousands of birds and mammals, millions of trees and an estimated 12 million baby salmon. (2/x) In the worst-affected areas, even the microbes in the soil perished, incinerated by the thermal energy of 1600 Hiroshima bombs. An expedition to the area above Spirit Lake found no measurable carbon or nitrogen in the soil at all. (3/x) Two years later, little had changed. Very little life existed anywhere in the new Pumice Plain apart from a few straggly lupine flowers that probably grew from seeds dropped by birds. And even they were struggling. (4/x) Still, their presence gave scientists an idea. Lupine seeds are food for pocket gophers, and each gopher can shift as much as 227 kg of soil month digging for them. They may even do it deliberately, improving the soil so more seeds grow. Like farmers! 🧪 www.theatlantic.com/science/arch... (5/x)
It’s well known that all kinds of generative AI, including the large language models (LLMs) behind AI chatbots, make things up. This is both a strength and a weakness. It’s the reason for their celebrated inventive capacity, but it also means they sometimes blur truth and fiction, inserting incorrect details into apparently factual sentences. [...] Because AI hallucinations are fundamental to how LLMs work, researchers say that eliminating them completely is impossible3. But scientists such as Zou are working on ways to make hallucinations less frequent and less problematic, developing a toolbox of tricks including external fact-checking, internal self-reflection or even, in Zou’s case, conducting “brain scans” of an LLM’s artificial neurons to reveal patterns of deception. Zou and other researchers say these and various emerging techniques should help to create chatbots that bullshit less, or that can, at least, be prodded to disclose when they are not confident in their answers. But some hallucinatory behaviours might get worse before they get better.
Using high levels of common fertilisers on grassland halves pollinator numbers and drastically reduces the number of flowers, research from the world’s longest-running ecological experiment has found. [...] Bees were most affected – there were over nine times more of them in chemical-free plots compared with those with the highest levels of fertiliser, according to the paper, published in the journal npj Biodiversity. The lead researcher, Sussex University’s Dr Nicholas Balfour, said: “As you increase fertilisers, pollinator numbers decrease – that’s the direct link that to our knowledge has never been shown before. “It’s having a drastic effect on flowers and insects. The knock-on effect goes right up the food chain,” he said.
As Oceans Warm, Predators Are Falling Out of Sync with Their Prey — yale environment 360
In the sea as on land, climate change is driving shifts in the abundance and distribution of species. Scientists are just beginning to focus on why some fish predators and prey — like striped bass and menhaden on the U.S. East Coast — are changing their behavior as waters warm.
x Few medical options are typically presented to people going through menopause, but t outlook for managing it is now starting to change. A feature in Nature outlines the emerging therapies, which includes a relook at hormone replacement therapy. #Medsky 🧪
[image or embed] — Nature Portfolio (@natureportfolio.bsky.social) January 25, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Why scientists are enlisting fungi to save endangered plants — knowable Mag
Hundreds of tubes of soil pack a row of fridges and a nearby cold room at a greenhouse facility in Lawrence, Kansas. They’re nothing much to look at, but under a microscope, tiny beads within the dirt sparkle like jewels. Some are lemon yellow, others like teardrops of amber; some are white pearls stamped with brown dots that look like eyeballs staring back at you. These microscopic gems are spores from fungi. “The spores are actually very pretty,” says the collection’s co-curator, plant ecologist Jim Bever of the University of Kansas. Beyond their charm, spores such as these may be a key to restoring imperiled plants and their ecosystems, whether critically endangered tallgrass prairie, patches of cloud forest in Colombia or some of the most threatened members of Hawaii’s unique flora. The spores will spawn mycorrhizal fungi, the oldest and most widespread partner of plants — the two have lived and worked together for some 500 million years.
The world's largest iceberg is on a collision course with a remote British island, potentially putting penguins and seals in danger. The iceberg is spinning northwards from Antarctica towards South Georgia, a rugged British territory and wildlife haven, where it could ground and smash into pieces. It is currently 173 miles (280km) away. Countless birds and seals died on South Georgia's icy coves and beaches when past giant icebergs stopped them feeding.
x Microplastics are everywhere—including inside us. And that's not awesome, given that new research in mice finds they can mess up blood flow in the brain. That and more of the best from @science.org and science in this edition of #ScienceAdviser: www.science.org/content/arti... 🧪
[image or embed] — Christie Wilcox (@nerdychristie.bsky.social) January 25, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Galactic chaos at cosmic noon may have stunted Milky Way planet formation — science news
The Milky Way keeps its planets close to its chest. Stars in a thin, flat disk bisecting the galaxy have more planets on average than stars in a thicker, enveloping disk — and astronomers now think they know why. Stars that currently live in the galaxy’s thick disk were born during a time of galactic chaos, says MIT astrophysicist Tim Hallatt. The stars’ violent upbringing hindered their ability to grow and retain planets, he and astrophysicist Eve Lee, formerly of McGill University in Montreal, report January 22 in the Astrophysical Journal.
Botanic gardens around the world are failing to conserve the rarest and most threatened species growing in their living collections because they are running out of space, according to research from the University of Cambridge. Researchers analysed a century’s worth of records from 50 botanic gardens and arboreta, collectively growing half-a-million plants, to see how the world’s living plant collections have changed since 1921. The results, published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, suggest the world’s living collections have reached peak capacity, while international restrictions on plant collecting are impeding efforts to study and preserve global plant diversity.
a heron show us how to navigate uncertainty in an unpredictable world
x YouTube Video
Click HERE you want to try ChatGPT.
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