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Dispatches From The Future - Red Secession In 2029 [1]
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Date: 2025-01-24
Preamble
If you think that everything is going to be fine or that certain aspects of our country are permanent, you will not enjoy this. I am writing a series of diaries on future possibilities. These focus, but are not exclusive to, some of the crazy scenarios and places our current trajectory could take us. None of this is inevitable. And NONE of these are what I want or predictions of what I think will happen. I prefer a democratic change scenario within our current parameters of government.
I say that all as preamble to cut off freakouts and accusations in the comments, both of which distract from considering these and other future possibilities. The intent is to better recognize risks and stress to then work to avoid them rather than to avert our eyes.
I will be posting this same introduction ahead of every one of these diaries.
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Analysis taken from Multipolar Unbound, Chapter 4: The Breakup of the United States, digital conglomeration and publication, 2078, Bantam-Bezos
Countries are seen as permanent, until they are not. Outside of a few, isolated opinions, the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 was not predicted. The same goes for the breakup of the Russian Federation in 2027, as well as the United States breakup in 2029. Yet these were all part of a trend of disunion and regionalism that could be seen economically and politically in the 2010s and 20s. The United Kingdom’s Brexit experiment from 2016 to 2027 was yet another example of this, causing untold economic hardship. Since then, some of these breakups have reversed (i.e., the UK rejoining the EU and adopting the Euro in 2036).
Others are still with us, such as a disunited United States. In hindsight, the signs leading to this disunion were clear.
Large parts of the United States had subscribed to an increasingly nationalistic brand of politics. This politics, represented by the Republican Party was anti-democracy, anti-diversity and operated in an all-or-nothing approach to politics. It also relied on vilifying and alienating “liberal” parts of the country, focusing on the West Coast and Northeast.
An unreformed federal bureaucracy that appeared distant from and unresponsive to its citizenry.
Over 30 states has become one-party rules states where the minority party had little chance of upending the state’s political order.
The Democratic Party was divided between progressive activists and old guard institutionalists, creating relatively weak pushback in “not being the Republicans” or in dealing in appeasement and a deep desire to avoid confrontation.
The Supreme Court largely backed states rights, including radical departures in abortion and voting rights and later what ability states had to remain part of the Union or not.
Money had come to so dominate politics that economic interests dominated to the detriment of national unity. Social media and disinformation backed by this money only accelerated disunion.
Despite all of this, entering the election of 2028 the United States appeared politically sound and united. Trump was term limited and JD Vance easily won the GOP nomination. Vance had Trump’s tacit blessing, but Trump was unenthusiastic in this support. By this time Trump was also limited to a wheelchair and on oxygen, following a series of concealed strokes from 2025 on. His mental state had been declining for years, which further prevented his participation on the campaign trail. Plenty of close confidants doubted that Trump would have helped Vance much even if he were healthy.
The Democratic primary was a vicious battle between two governors: Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer. Whitmer faced more obstacles, the largest of which was a cry of “not again” in nominating a woman to head the ticket after Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016 and Kamala Harris’ loss in 2024. Just as many howled that a Californian could not win the race. Several key endorsements made the difference for Whitmer, including Barack Obama, AOC and a retired Bernie Sanders.
The 2028 Election
Whitmer engaged in the most vicious campaign since LBJ’s 1968 campaign. For Democrats wanting a more aggressive posture, Whitmer delivered. There was less hope and joy in the campaign and more a demand for an American dream stolen from the average citizen. This included direct attacks on singled out billionaires as responsible for all manner of social and economic ills. When asked by a reporter if her tone was unnecessarily divisive she replied: “This is about steering a better course for the United States of America, it’s past time to put on your big boy pants.”
The campaign laid every misstep of Trump’s second term (of which there were many) at Vance’s feet. Vance had in fact been one of the most invisible and uninvolved VP’s in recent memory, banished by Trump for most of his second term. The GOP campaign was no less aggressive, if more typical. Fake AI videos proliferated on GOP-friendly news stations, networks and social media sites. These showed everything from Whitmer slapping children to personally pushing a resisting women into an abortion clinic. The GOP’s media machine remained dominant, but struggled against the economic narratives. Inflation had remained barely controlled and persistent. The DNC had also better learned to leverage the online environment and hyper social media cycles. This made the most difference with young people.
International events had little impact. The world was largely at peace with Palestinian technocrats running Gaza under one of the largest rebuilding operations in history. Russia remained in chaos following economic and social collapse. China continued to grapple with rising economic and demographic challenges, which Trump’s targeted tariffs had accelerated.
After large scale deportations and widespread tariffs failed to materialize early in Trump’s term, the United States economy continued a modest growth rate with occasional pullbacks. There was a light recession in 2026-2027, the first normal recession since 2002. Ultimately, the American people still craved change to make more of their lives better and Trump was seen as having failed to deliver this just like Biden. And like Kamala Harris, JD Vance was seen complicit in that failure.
Polls were generally disregarded in 2028, but turned out to be more accurate than in any presidential cycle since 2012. Whitmer locked down Michigan where she remained popular while running mate, Ruben Gallego helped to solidify the Southwest. The 2028 election’s margin was slightly larger than 2024. Bad news for Vance came almost immediately with his underperforming in the critical states of Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The race was called at 12:04 AM EST.
Stirrings of Trouble
The day after Election Day Vance gave a non-concession speech to a packed hall. He categorically rejected the election results, calling various state results fraudulent and due to a globalist conspiracy to enslave “Real America”. He ominously ended the speech with “This will not stand.”
Whitmer and her transition team prepared to take office with no help from the Trump administration, which was chaotically and actively destroying and deleting electronic documents and other evidence of wrongdoing. Trump’s Attorney General made noises of staying on to “keep Whitmer honest”.
Meanwhile various Red State governors met and coordinated with media and corporate connections. The RNC, Vance campaign officials, Trump family members and several tech barons participated in these talks. The GOP Media Machine reported nonstop on voting irregularities and illegal immigrants voting 3 to 5 times in states like North Carolina and Arizona. AI-created videos showed various individuals dropping off and submitting multiple ballots at once and striking an election worker when asked about it. There was also a countdown to “The End of America” with a mushroom cloud graphic on most every FOX broadcast.
Team Blue remained optimistic and ignored these events, calling them “sour grapes” and that America had decided to turn the page. Democrats had expanded their majority in the House, improbably taken back the Senate and regained the White House. Talk of an expansive progressive agenda began, including Senate filibuster reform to pass the biggest policy changes in decades. Democrats referred to their Senate rules reform package as the Mitch McConnell Ensures Decency Act.
Mass protests occurred as Congress certified the Election. The National Mall was largely empty, but in state capitols across the country rage was on open display. Whitmer was burned in effigy and crowds stormed and took over several federal facilities in the days leading up to Inauguration Day. The departing Trump administration issues strict orders to completely comply with “local authorities” and to cede all control. In some states that included military bases where Trump loyalists aided and abetted the takeovers.
Red State Exit
Mere minutes before President Whitmer’s Inauguration Day speech several networks switched over to Texas governor Greg Abbot. He was flanked by 8 other state governors and dozens of Senators and Representatives. His delivery was grave. The federal election was false and the United States was no longer a shining example of democracy. Accordingly, all of the states present at this address represented Real America and would not recognize the federal government. Abbot invited Vance, the legitimate winner, to create his own government. This government would take up residence in Tallahassee, Florida, which Vance’s VP, former governor Ron DeSantis, was familiar with. There was still hope for a United States Abbot declared, but only if Whitmer resigned immediately and worked with Congress to appoint Vance to the presidency. This created immediate outrage from Americans that voted for Whitmer and jubilation from those who voted for Vance. Both groups of citizenry demanded that “their side” NOT back down.
Federal Inaction
Whitmer’s administration was paralyzed over what to do. Heading off a new age insurrection was not on the agenda. Everyone from party activists to keyboard warriors were shocked by this turn of events, having said for years that such could not happen. It was illegal, inappropriate and nonsensical. Right on all counts, this incredulity and collective denial wasted time and opportunity to respond to a real crisis.
Remaining Trump loyalists in the federal government actively disrupted operations and sowed chaos. Computer systems crashed, secure information was posted and messages told workers not to report or to work at odd times of day. Much of this sabotage was headed off, especially as Whitmer’s administration took over. Some federal agencies suffered this chaos for months later, inhibiting work.
The GOP Media Machine immediately blamed Whitmer for the crisis. “This is what happens when you pick a woman for a man’s job” was the sexist refrain. A few administration officials wanted a hard line, putting everything on the table from withholding federal funding to deployment of the military to protect federal assets. Others suggested ignoring it as the performative protest that it undoubtedly was. Ultimately, Whitmer decided to wait and react to what the Red States did next.
In retrospect, this inaction was a mistake, allowing Real America to continue to gain momentum. Vance and others soon set up a shadow government with its own press conferences. Some politicians were members of both Congresses, although Real America’s was intermediate ahead of future planned elections in the Fall. The United States still sent federal monies to all states and little else changed. Vance gave speech after speech, highlighting his better communications compared to Trump. He was in no way stopped from doing this, traveling to several states that had voted for Whitmer. In two states, Kentucky and North Carolina, Democratic governors foiled attempts to join Real America, refusing to sign passed legislation. Tens of thousands of protesters descended on the governor mansions , forcing those governors to flee. Many of these protesters were not even from the states. The legislatures then illegally replaced the Democratic governors with MAGA members who eagerly signed the legislation to join Real America. Elon Musk tweeted “JOIN US” in support. There was also sporadic violence throughout the country. That included in parts of Blue states such as eastern Washington and Oregon.
National Divorce
The Whitmer administration does their homework, reviewing data, meeting with consultants and those on each sides of the widening divide. When asked if States should be forced to stay in the Union, even it it required use of the military, the data is clear. Just 21% of Americans support such action. Even among Democrats support was just 53%. Few actively wanted violence or conflict to force Real America to remain in the Union. Support was much higher among Democrats in states wanting to join Real America at 67%.
Because of this, Whitmer was reluctant to use the military or take other confrontational approaches. The fear was that that would drive more states to Real America. What is more, military advisors noted that the U.S. armed forces were not set up to occupy large parts of the country, not without instituting a draft. A draft was seen as political suicide. In addition, plenty of military members and leadership made it clear that they would also protest any such orders, no matter the consequence.
Meanwhile, Real America organized its National Guard (which Whitmer could take over), militias and other armed volunteers in “defense against tyranny”. YouTube was full of promotional videos showing forces on parade and calling for all citizens to join the “Liberty Brigades”. One of the most popular AI videos was a mash up of Whitmer and King George III.
By May it was clear that any confrontation had the potential to kill a large number of Americans. In internal messages among Real America leaders, MAGA and the oligarchs saw any casualties as a win-win for international support. The environment was one of tense waiting. The economy has had troubles since the start of the crisis. The stock market crashed, partially recovered and has hung even since then, waiting to see if there will be violence and war.
Real America’s formation and associated state legislature and governor actions faced several legal challenges. A few of rushed to the Supreme Court. Whitmer’s administration hoped that the Court would undercut the legitimacy of Real America as there was a long legal precedent against any state seceding from the Union. The Alito Court largely demurred, citing Texas v. White (1869), which said that a State could not secede, but that certain circumstances may allow for such. One of those circumstances was consent given by other states. The Alito Court said it could not issue a ruling as it was unclear if such consent by other states was given or not as of yet. This does nothing to head off the crisis or lend legitimacy to Whitmer proactively dealing with the crisis. Two Supreme Court justices make no secret that they would serve on Real America’s judiciary if given the choice. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson issues a blistering dissent.
America’s tense standoff lasted into the summer, during which time Senate Republicans filibustered every introduced bill. The federal government and related business remained largely at a standstill. No filibuster or other reform was possible during this time. In July, negotiators between Whitmer’s administration and Real America began secret meetings as violence continues to increase. The worst of this was several right-wing groups parading through inner cities bristling with weaponry. In Compton, one such parade was ambushed, despite police protection, and resulted in 24 fatalities.
In September 2029 an initial agreement was announced. Real America received essential self-governance. It was (and is) still technically a part of the United States, but would only send non-voting advisors to Congress. Real America had its own government and was in charge of its own territory, along with a Congress and other elected officials under its own drafted and approved Constitution. There was a common economic and currency zone to last no less than 10 years (this has been regularly renewed). Citizens and companies could move back and forth during that same time period, but must express a matching preference for citizenship and taxation purposes. The debt and other common national assets were divided and reallocated. Also, several states had to hold votes on which entity they preferred and that state boundaries would be respected. The number of states holding such votes was a matter of great debate and fewer than Whitmer had wanted. By fall all of these states had voted with Ohio, Kentucky and North Carolina voting for Real America and Arizona, Alaska and (most surprisingly) Utah, voting for the United States.
Real America in Red (pink states voted for inclusion). United States in blue (light blue states voted for inclusion)
Postscript
The larger details of this separation took years of negotiations and meetings to fully work out. At the end of the process in 2035 the constitutions and territory of the residual United States and Real America were very different. The residual United States was much more liberal and enacted a raft of progressive goals and systemic reforms by the end of Whitmer’s second term. That included national healthcare, a green energy revolution and several new Constitutional amendments. One of those amendments was that no remaining state had a legal right to secession.
Over time, Real America devolved into the 2nd world country that it is today. There were still ample resources in a large, but mostly unpopulated territory. That was especially true with agriculture and strong export partners. The value of agriculture dropped over time as the market for soybeans and beef declined. 3D printing of food further depressed this demand. The United States and Real America cooperated more than not economically when it came to imports and exports, but labor rights declined in Real America and the United States partnered more with countries in line with its national ethics, such as Canada and an expanding EU. Real America’s economy started off roughly 1/3 the size of the residual United States. Immigrants were allowed to work in Real America, but as 2nd class, non-citizens with no recognized rights. Nor were their children citizens. Much of the Texas border was armed with nonstop drone surveillance and attacks for anything coming within ½ mile of the border.
Oligarchs helped fund the new government with heavy corporate influence built-in from the start. Corruption and boom and bust cycles have characterized this economy, which has also suffered from brain drain to the residual United States. That drain was and is doubly true for women emigrating to the United States. Roughly 11 million people have emigrated from Real America, while just 5 million left the residual United States. Further stressing Real America was an ill-advised military adventure following Puerto Rico joining Real America in 2033.
In contrast, the United States avoided military conflict, despite a tense confrontation during China’s Civil War, and enjoyed economic success. To this day the country remains bisected by Real America, but that is of little concern in the digital and AI economy. AI economic gains were rolled back into individual bank accounts, ensuring everyone profited from technological innovation. Indeed, the tech industry largely shattered after 21st century trust busting by President AOC, punitive fines placed on active disinformation and passing a Bill of Digital Rights. There were also active incentives for Americans to move and mix in political regions different from their own to create more social balance. Undergirding this was an emphasis on unity and what Americans had in common and shared. The original 27 U.S. states also increased to 30 with statehood for D.C., the U.S. Virgin Islands and the former Pacific territories.
Whether or not this division could have been avoided remains an active debate. Some view a division of a large land mass and population as different as that in the United States as inevitable, especially given its aged institutions that could not keep pace with modern technology and changes. Others claim that several factors could have been mitigated when the opportunity still existed, specifically during the Bush and Obama administrations. This requires those administrations to have a level of foresight beyond what leaders had just before the breakup. Still others predict that Real America’s obvious decline will lead to an eventual reunification of the country. That sentiment is not shared by Real America’s Republican leadership or the Social Capitalists currently running the United States.
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