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The Evolution of Russia's War Losses in Ukraine [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-01-23
Using the data compiled by our own annieli’s daily reporting on the war in Ukraine, I’ve put together three charts to illustrate just how the war has been progressing from the standpoint of Russian average daily losses in both personnel and equipment over the past three years, arranged by specific quarter. Note that the first quarter (22-I) started on Feb 22, 2022, and thus represents just 38 days, and the current quarter (25-I) covers just the first 22 days thus far.
The first thing worth pointing out is that while the opening stage of the war wasn’t all that costly to Russia in terms of actual casualties, it was enormously destructive in terms of their military hardware — particularly tanks and armored personnel vehicles that were abandoned or destroyed in their hundreds during the abortive campaign to take Kyiv. Those initial loss rates have never come close to being duplicated since that initial debacle.
(Corrected)
OTOH, note how Russia’s artillery losses have followed a rather different pattern from tank and APV losses — fairly minimal during the first year of the war, but then skyrocketing dramatically thereafter as Ukraine began receiving more effective and longer-range weapons with which to attrit Russia’s traditional mainstay of its military doctrine. Indeed, the sudden drop in Russian artillery losses after last summer (24-III) suggests the Russians really are scraping the bottom of their stockpiled reserves, and it is now only the infusion of North Korean supplies that is staving off a complete collapse in that combat arm.
Likewise, note how daily Russian manpower losses have continued to ratchet up each quarter following their resumption of the strategic offensive since the Fall of 2023, and their increasing reliance on ‘meat’ assaults to grind out what relatively minimal territorial gains they’ve managed thus far — though here again an increasing share of those personnel losses seem to be coming from NK cannon fodder.
Finally, a word of explanation about the third chart. Vehicles here refer to anything used to transport men and/or supplies up to the front lines, and now cover all sorts of nontraditional vehicles like civilian cars, Chinese golf carts, and even motorcycles; and UAVs (drones) illustrate their growing importance in the war. Hopefully the enormous surge we’ve seen in Russian drone strikes over the last few weeks is not sustainable in the long run.
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UPDATE: Just noticed a transcription error in my 24-IV data point for UAVs that is now corrected, and the relevant chart has been updated. So while there has definitely been a very significant upsurge in Russian drone strikes recently, it’s just not quite as extreme as originally portrayed.
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