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How Donald Trump Changed Pennsylvania’s Electorate: Tracking Voter Registration Trends Over the Past [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-01-23
Larry Sabato (UVA Center for Politics)
Way back in the summer of 2016, when I first started to examine Pennsylvania’s voter registration trends, I wrote that “the idea that [Donald Trump] is single-handedly changing PA’s electorate has little support.” At that moment, the evidence seemed to support my assertion. Time, of course, made a fool out of me.
Over the years, I periodically tracked the shift in the margins of the PA numbers, starting with May 2015, right before Trump descended the escalator and launched his campaign. All my updates would examine the revisions since the previous article, and while this method helped illuminate all the microscopic modifications that were taking place statewide, I now worry it caused me to miss the bigger picture.
While there was plenty of movement among the existing group of voters, what I failed to properly appreciate was the influx of registrations that were growing the overall voter pool. For instance, on May 19, 2015, the Pennsylvania numbers were as follows:
3,963,864 Democrats
2,964,437 Republicans
1,104,062 Other
8,032,363 Total
By Jan. 20, 2025, the numbers looked like this:
3,814,026 Democrats
3,622,722 Republicans
1,399,419 Other
8,836,167 Total
Those 803,804 new registrants were the main impetus behind the Democratic advantage dropping from 999,427 to 191,304 over the past nine and a half years.
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[1] Url:
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