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Opinion: Trump’s 2nd-1st 100 days. The plot of a sequel can be lost quickly. Let’s make it happen. [1]
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Date: 2025-01-22
Opinion: Trump’s second first 100 days. The plot of a sequel can be lost quickly. Let’s make it happen.
There have been numerous stories about how the Trump administration will have more power than before and be effective because they control the legislative branches. However, I posit that the idea that the administration can lose the narrative quickly in this sequel and we can make it happen.
The analogy is as follows: Trump’s second administration was born out of a cult-push to make a sequel from a movie that bombed at the box-office the first time. It’s like a movie getting a Rotten Tomatoes score of 45% that then developed some sort of cult following to make studios excited about creating a sequel. A sequel appeared financial appealing, and the cult won. But these movies are often a bad idea. They bring together most of the same cast or character-types but don’t quite relive the magic. Audiences get excited but when the plot veers, they lose interest quickly. This isn’t a trilogy where the second movie can summarize gaps in a third move. Despite our concern, there really isn’t a third Trump term unless one constitutional amendment overturns another.
The same analogy holds true in business when CEOs step away and come back or sports when head coaches step away and come back to the SAME team. For football fans, think Joe Gibbs and Jon Gruden. Situations and challenges are different from their early success. They cannot reproduce their same success.
Why do sequels not do well?
Rushed production. Analogy: His cabinet is a bunch of loyalists and not a strategic team. Lack of original cast. Analogy: Keep in mind, although he will have motivated people, he has alienated effective and knowledgeable people in his prior administration and prior Republican administrations that knew how to get things done. Even some old, loyal people are hard to get back because I mean, it’s the government. He can’t double their salary for them to come back for one to two years. His current picks for his administration are somewhat “weird”. He wants to fill his administration with loyalists and all he can do is find a few senators and representatives. Drawing upon legislators is going to be problematic as the house and senate are effectively even. Plot issues. The plot may be a rip-off of the original, or it may not expand on the narrative. See information below about the analogy to the Trump administration. Similar to the original - The sequel may feel like the same product as the original, just in different packaging. For example, the sequel may have a similar villain, threat, or consequences. Analogy: tariffs, borders, China, etc. Spectacle over substance. This requires no description about the second Trump administration.
So what are the plot issues? Let’s start with Trump’s motivation. He was somewhat serious the first time at the age of 70 to govern the country in his vision. But seriously, 78-year-old businessman wants to govern again? His clear motivation is to stay of out jail, clear his name, and accumulate power for himself and take it to the enemies. However, what else? I mean, if he creates billions for himself and family, why is he really sitting in the White House trying to help the nation rather than enjoying his twilight years? I think when the going gets rough, he’ll lose any motivation quickly.
Differences #2. He also remembers the good economic times from 2016-2018 that he thinks he oversaw rather than being a result of Obama’s stewardship. The economic trajectory was upward. Now, the trajectory is murky at best. The nation has put him in charge of “righting” the ship. Our situation is of a “soft economic landing” which we have NOT achieved yet. The plane is close to landing but is now making a course correction. This is no longer Obama’s good economy but rather an economy that is fragile. Turbulence is on the way. I predict irrational exuberance is going to hit the markets followed by a nasty down-turn.
So what are some ideas forward. I suggest a few.
First idea. Let the saga between business leaders play out and let’s figure out a way to divide. He’ll eventual fall-out with all of the them because he is jealous of their success. He wants to be top dog and have the wealth of Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos. They are not friends with mutual short or long-term interests. Let’s come up with creative ways to cultivate divisions.
So there becomes the administrations real dilemma. What next? What can they accomplish in 4 years? There is no second-term. They can make assumptions about heirs to the MAGA movement but really, that is a horizon that take longer than 4 years.
Second idea: Lawsuits (which have started) and more lawsuits. It needs to be all about state’s rights. This is the only way to stop the Supreme Court from intervening. They’ll have to bend themselves in knots to make themselves make sense given recent rulings such as Dobbs. Start mucking up the system like Republicans have done for so long. Any initial delays in implementation of administrative policies are going to drive them crazy. They’ll quickly realize that really don’t have an 8- year arc. They have months to make an impact before something changes. The first 100 days are crucial to derail.
Third. Legislative theatrics. For example, I want the Democrats to go along with legislation Republican craft with the idea that they WILL pull support at the last minute. Construct legislation where it looks bipartisan with Republicans losing 20 members (the crazies) but gaining 20 democrats. At the last minute, Democrats withhold support because “X amendment” is not there so that Republicans look like they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. In this way, the 20 members Republicans need will not get on board because they are too crazy. Politics 101 which republicans have been doing for years. If they have to bring the crazies on board, then they have to start over. This will make 47 more crazy as he realizes he has less time to get things done.
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Post-mortem 2024:
Look, it sucks to lose. But I’ve been there and done that. In 2004, we lost a hard-fought election. In that same year, we had an enthusiastic Democratic convention. But GWB won and the administration had larger house and senate margins than Trump 2024. We lost a lot of good people that year. This was followed by awesome elections in 2006 and 2008. Let’s make this happen again.
Of note, it’s taken years as a borderline GenX-Millennial for my financial life to stabilize because of my career choices. However, they have stabilized in the last 5 years. I invest in socially responsible ETFs including green energy. I fit the demographic that avidly supports Democrats. I’m willing to invest (donation or otherwise) into the right directions. I think based on the economic demographics that vote democratic, others are as well. Just give us the right path.
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