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The Republican Party's Donald Trump Problem [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-01-20

One of the bad parts about the Democratic Party's "save democracy" 2024 rhetoric is it leads to defeatism if you lose. Donald Trump is the President, he will make things worse, freedoms will recede, but there are also a lot of other facts out there that show that this will not last forever.

1. I see a lot of "Trump will appoint himself President for life," comments. I don't think he could do that. But even if he did, Donald Trump is 78.5 years old. Let's take a look at some nationally known political figures who died recently: Ted Kennedy died at 77, John McCain died at 81, Harry Reid died at 82. The actuarial tables say it's 50/50 that Trump even survives his term (the country can't keep electing septuagenarian men and not expect a President to die in office). And then what? Is President JD Vance, a phony's phony and the least popular person on either ticket, suddenly going to be popular? Or will he be seen as the tool of tech billionaires that he is and drive working class voters away from the Republican Party?

2. While the Supreme Court sucks and has meddled in elections for far too long, they are not going to collectively give up their power and give Trump everything he wants. Roberts and Coney Barrett will check the worst impulses (but will still allow too many steaming piles of garbage to stand).

3. There are two things they absolutely won't allow: a President trying to cancel elections and a President not allowing Congress to be seated. Elections certificates expire. That means there has to be elections in 2026--and there will be some special elections before that. Trump has caused a realignment. In years past, Democrats usually did worse in mid-terms because their voters weren't as reliable. As college educated people became Democrats in greater numbers, that has shifted. During the Biden Administration Democrats over-performed in special elections and the 2022 mid-terms. It won't entirely shock me if control of the US House changes during the term given the narrow majority and Democrats' propensity to overperform in low-turnout elections. Republicans are also poised to nominate Vivek Rasamswamy to statewide office in Ohio, something that is sure to be a drag on the ticket there. Thom Tillis, Susan Collins and John Husted are all very beatable. And you never know when a total clown might make it through the primary and give us a seat we shouldn't have (see Alabama 2017). Maybe Matt Gaetz gets the Florida Senate nomination…

4. There are signs that artificial intelligence is a bubble on par with, if not exceeding, the dot com bubble. There are also signs that crypto will eventually crash, and given that trillions is now stored in things like the latest Trump crap coin, it has the potential to take the economy down with it. Elon Musk demanding a bailout of Dogecoin, which could happen within 18 months, is not going to be popular.

5. The prices of eggs, chickens, milk and beef are about to go through the roof. Farmers have been culling flocks and herds due to the avian flu. Give this four months to work through the supply chain, and it's going to be a total disaster. When eggs are ten bucks a carton, people will blame Trump.

6. And even if none of the above happens and four years passes and there aren't any awful things, whomever is the next Republican nominee will have this problem: Donald Trump was on television for years playing an eponymous character who was edited to "tell it like it is." People trust Trump and believe him because they feel they know him. JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz? Not so much.

Don't get me wrong, today really sucked. The next two years (or maybe one year if Dems in the House pull off a miracle and win a few special elections) are going to suck. But then there'll be a new Congress, and that Congress will check Trump. Focus will shift away from Trump himself to who might replace him. Republicans are likely to have a particularly nasty primary between the likes of Hawley, Vance, Haley, Cruz, etc. They'll have to take stupid positions--like embracing violent proud boys and claiming Elon Musk is a genius--that will alienate the general public.

Meanwhile, Democrats--after losing in 2024 are likely to do what they did in 2020: find a candidate that addresses perceived weaknesses. It'll be less about the culture wars and more about the war on the working class. Whether it's Ruben Gallego or Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsom or Josh Shapiro or Kamala Harris or Tim Walz or Alexandria O'Casio Cortez or Alyssa Slotkin or Lisa Blunt Rochester or Angela Alsobrooks or Wes Moore or Raphael Warnock or Jon Ossoff or Martin O'Malley or Collin Allred, and I could go on and on and on, whomever we nominate will be the favorite because they'll have a better chance of having a connection with the American public than weirdos like Vance, Hawley and Cruz.

Life goes on, things ebb and flow. Political parties based on personalities falter when their leader can no longer run.

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