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The sky is falling - thanks Elon [1]
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Date: 2025-01-17
ICYMI, a Space X launch experienced a ‘rapid disassembly’ of the upper stage.
The video at the link shows a shower of falling debris. Airliners were forced to change flight plans to avoid the area of risk. The heavy lift first stage was successfully returned and captured, but the upper stage… was not.
As it happens, the risk of falling debris from Space X launches has been forcing airlines to take precautions for some time now. This latest incident shows why, in spectacular fashion.
To be fair, this is a problem not exclusive to Musk and Space X. The pace of commercial space launches is picking up, and so is the risk as launch vehicles get larger.
The number of objects in orbit is increasing at a rapid pace as the cost of getting them there drops — and so is the number of them that will be re-entering the atmosphere, at random.
The potential for real problems increases as low earth orbit becomes crowded. The rising likelihood of KesslerSyndrome is giving informed people insomnia.
A collision between two objects in orbit creates more debris which in turn leads to more collisions in an expanding cascade. The worst case scenario is that LEO (Low Earth Orbit) becomes filled with so much debris, it becomes impossible to operate spacecraft and satellites in it.
This has huge implications for the military; satellites for communications and reconnaissance are essential assets. There’s also vital global information infrastructure that can’t operate without space-based links in real time.
There’s really no avoiding catastrophe if we don’t respond to what’s happening.
Regulation is essential. LEO is too valuable to let it become another Tragedy of the Commons. (Not that co-president Musk is going to accept any limits on his ambitions.)
Requiring anyone that launches anything into orbit also include some means of safely removing it to keep it from becoming a hazard should be a no-brainer.
Developing an orbital capability to capture and remove/reuse/repurpose orbiting space junk would also make sense. This is something that could be done by teleoperation with AI assist.
These efforts also look like something Space Force should be tasked with.
It’s only a matter of time before something happens, whether it’s a huge launch failure, a collision in orbit, or falling space debris causing fatalities.
UPDATE 1310hrs 1-17-25 1BQ has some additional info on this.
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