(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
Logical Fallacy Bootcamp: Anecdotal Evidence [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-01-17
>>> Dedicated to the memory of Witgren <<<
Before Witgren’s untimely death from colon cancer last summer, he wrote a series of very informative articles for Daily Kos about common arguments that mislead with logical fallacies. He called his series “Logical Fallacy Bootcamp”.
I would have liked to have seen just one more Witgren essay, focusing on the specific logical fallacy of anecdotal evidence. However, he didn’t cover that one; except as it related to other logical fallacies. I will do my best to fill that gap, although I’m not claiming to be as good a writer as he was.
Anecdotal evidence is the cherry-picked use of just one example as “proof” of a claim. Some examples:
“My neighbor’s cousin’s barber had a vaccination and still got covid, and that proves that the vaccine doesn’t work.”
“I know that it’s safe to drive through a red light because I drove through a red light one time and no accident occurred.”
“My grandfather smoked for most of his life and he never got cancer. That proves that smoking does not cause cancer.”
“It’s cold outside today. Therefore, global warming is a hoax!”
“That serial killer didn’t believe in Jesus. That proves that there can be no morality without faith in Jesus.”
Anecdotal evidence can be used to “prove” superstitious beliefs:
“I know a guy who walked under a ladder and he lost his wallet the next day.”
(That’s an example of anecdotal evidence, and also a “Post Hoc” argument.)
Racists often use anecdotal evidence to try to validate their beliefs. For example:
“20 years ago, a girl was raped by a Mexican. That proves that all Mexicans are rapists and should never be allowed into our country!”
Anecdotal evidence is related to (and often overlaps with) confirmation bias, which Witgren explained here.
Another close cousin of anecdotal evidence (also covered by Witgren) is the aforementioned Post Hoc argument. Post Hoc arguments claim that when one event occurred after another event, it “proves” that the first caused the second. An examples of a Post Hoc argument would be:
“My brother ate a carrot and the next day he fell down a flight of stairs. That proves that carrots are dangerous!”
The opposite of anecdotal evidence is large data. Legitimate evidence includes examining large numbers of examples, as opposed to just one. For instance, extensive data indicates that cigarette smoking increases the risk of lung cancer because lung cancer rates are much higher among smokers than among non-smokers. Some people fail to understand the concepts of increased and decreased risks. Although smokers have higher lung cancer rates, the rate is not 100%; and so anyone could easily cite one example of a smoker never getting cancer as “proof”.
If you want to learn the objective truth about anything, disregard any “I know this one guy” stories and look instead at large data! And always be objective; disregard any personal biases you have and be ready to accept the evidence you find, regardless of what it ultimately shows.
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/1/17/2297502/-Logical-Fallacy-Bootcamp-Anecdotal-Evidence?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web
Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/
