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Bibi May Not Be Able to Close the Deal - Nor Want To [1]

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Date: 2025-01-16

In what even some Republicans (!) admit was an unusual effort at cooperation between two people who really don’t like each other, President Biden accepted help from his incoming successor to broker a cease-fire in Gaza — basically on the same terms the US has been pushing since May. That Trump would jump the gun in announcing it and also try to take total credit was only to be expected. Was was also expected, or should have been, was that Netanyahu — Bibi — would find some way to stall the deal his own negotiators in Doha had agreed to.

Middle East latest: Israel's Netanyahu says Gaza ceasefire deal is not complete (14 hours ago):

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said late Wednesday that a ceasefire agreement with Hamas is still not complete and the final details are being worked out. Netanyahu's statement comes hours after the United States and Qatar announced the deal, which would pause the devastating 15-month war in Gaza and clear the way for dozens of hostages to go home. The conflict has destabilized the Middle East and sparked worldwide protests.

adding:

Netanyahu claims Hamas backtracked on an earlier understanding about prisoner release in the ceasefire deal

But. . . .

Here are the latest developments. (NYT, this morning)

Izzat al-Rishq, a senior Hamas official, said the group was committed to the deal. Hamas officials did not immediately answer specific questions about the latest disputes.

As has happened before, Bibi is accusing Hamas in order to have an excuse to back away.

Israeli ministers were unlikely to meet before Friday to ratify the agreement, the prime minister’s office said, citing disagreements with Hamas. The holdup prompted fears of further delays in carrying out the agreement, which was announced on Wednesday by brokers Qatar, Egypt and the United States.

Why? Two reasons:

First, Netanyahu could lose his Knesset majority because the far-right members of his coalition want to keep on fighting (and fighting, and fighting):

Deal Has Exposed Fissures in Netanyahu’s Right-Wing Government

Two days before Israel and Hamas reached a long-awaited cease-fire and hostage-release deal, Itamar Ben-Gvir, a rebellious far-right Israeli minister, issued a video statement calling on another far-right coalition partner to join forces and scupper the agreement by quitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Mr. Ben-Gvir also asserted that these far-right coalition parties had used their political leverage to thwart a similar deal “time after time” over the past year, causing an uproar.

It is possible, given the current cabinet, that the deal could pass even if Ben-Gvir and Smotrich refuse to go along, and Bibi could still maintain his Knesset majority:

Another far-right cabinet member, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, called the agreement “bad and dangerous to Israel’s national security” and said he absolutely opposed it. But he did not explicitly threaten to leave the government.

But the pressure will still be on from the ultra-Orthodox to either scuttle the deal or to leave soon after. That may well trigger the fall of the government and another election, which Bibi could well lose.

And it’s not just that Bibi wants to stay in power. He has to stay in power, and for much the same reason Trump had to win the election: the threat of conviction and prison. That gives his right-wing coalition partners extraordinary leverage over him:

Netanyahu Faces a Political Crisis Over the Gaza Cease-Fire Deal (NYT, this morning):

The Gaza cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas had yet to be ratified by Israel’s government on Thursday, but the battle over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future has already begun. Hours after the deal was announced, Mr. Netanyahu was facing a potential internal rebellion from far-right partners in his governing coalition on whose support he depends to remain in power. There is a majority in the cabinet in favor of the cease-fire agreement, and if there is a vote it is expected to be approved even without the far-right parties’ votes. But the far-right parties, led by Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, and the minister for national security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, vehemently oppose the deal.

On one side, Bibi has the United States — in the persons of the current and future presidents — the families of the hostages, most of the world, and probably most Israelis outside the ultra-Orthodox pushing for the ceasefire, while on the other side, he has the far-right parties — who can save him or wreck him — denouncing the deal, with some even hinting they may leave the coalition, especially if he carries out the second part in around six weeks.

The far-right ministers have threatened to quit the government if Mr. Netanyahu proceeds from the first phase of the cease-fire agreement, which calls for a temporary, six-week truce, to a permanent one.

I can’t offhand think of a Biblical parallel to the Greek myth of Scilla and Charbydis, where the hero is caught between two evils and has to choose one or the other. And Netanyahu is certainly no Odysseus — but he’s the same spot, so that is a good description of where he is now.

My prediction: The cabinet will go along with the deal for now, but the far right will force Netanyahu to find (or manufacture) some excuse to block the second phase — at which point the war could well resume. Side prediction: Trump, who by then will (Bog help us) be in charge, (1) will not know what to do; (2) will not have a competent team (even with Rubio) to tell him what to do; (3) will find some way to blame Biden.

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