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Addressing misinformation the NFL way: a Presidential QBR (beta-test) [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-01-14
Most top issues for Presidential voters over the past half century have been similar (the economy, deficit, health care, crime and immigration). These issues (unlike cultural or international issues) lend themselves to specific measurements of Presidential performance. Unfortunately, most voters pay little attention to politics which enables poor Administrations to make false claims. As we approach a new Presidential Administration, we should establish a framework for credible judgements concerning Presidential performance as one element in a broader campaign to fight the tsunami of disinformation
Americans do pay attention to the National Football League: 94 of the 100 most-watched live television broadcasts in 2023 were NFL games. While not at the same level as national politics, strong partisan emotions have been known to color perceptions of team leaders by the fans. An approach developed for the NFL can help address our political challenge.
We can score Presidential performance the way the NFL measures the most important position on a team, the quarterback (QB). Originally, the NFL used a Passer Rating that scored QBs on a scale from 0 to 158.3. The Passer Rating failed to measure important ways the QB might hurt (fumbles/penalties) or help (rushing) his team, so ESPN developed the Quarterback Rating (QBR) model to account for a broader set of QB contributions on a 1-100 scale. If we took the measurable interests of voters as expressed by a half-century of polling, a Presidential QBR can be calculated as shown above.
The NFL’s QBR addressed another flaw of the Passer Rating by putting performance in context (for example, when one team is far ahead in the 4th Quarter in so-called “garbage time,” the winning team often lets the losing QB get many short completions as a way of consuming the remaining time on the clock). The important context for a Presidential QBR is different: each President inherits a level of economic growth, inflation, unemployment, a planned deficit, etc. While Presidential Administrations don’t start like football games with a 0-0 statistical blank slate, Presidential performance can be put into context by comparing the statistical performance they inherited with the level of performance at the end of their Administration.
The following five metrics use generally accepted measures to track Presidential performance in the areas that have been of elevated interest to voters over the past half-century. These metrics clearly don’t cover every issue important to voters, including me, but they provide a measurable benchmark
Business Economy: Voters value a growing economy and a strong stock market. The Business Economy metric measures growth in GDP and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (which reflects economic conditions primarily affecting wealthier Americans).
Household Economy: Voters want jobs and stable prices, and they want the benefits of economic prosperity to flow to them. The Household Economy metric measures jobs via changes in the unemployment rate, changes in the inflation rate, change in cumulative inflation (reflects impacts of high inflation in the middle of an Administration as with Biden even if inflation is lower in the end), and median salary in inflation-adjusted dollars (reflects economic conditions facing a broader swath of the population)
Deficit and National Debt: Voters worry about the annual deficit and the growing national debt. This metric measures the change in the annual deficit from what a President inherits to what is passed to the successor (which is relevant due to the lag-time and inertia in federal spending and tax collection), and change in total federal debt as a percentage of GDP (which reflects the cumulative effect of deficit spending across an Administration in the context of concurrent economic growth)
Health Care: Voters want affordable health care, so this metric measures the rate of health care cost increases and life expectancy. I have not included a measure for percentage of the population with health insurance because of the partisan disagreement over whether fewer uninsured Americans is beneficial (perhaps unexpectedly, increases in uninsured Americans seems correlated with higher rates of health care costs)
Crime & Illegal Immigrations: Voters want to feel safe, and past elections have focused both on crime and illegal immigration as measures of safety. Over the past 50 years, voter interest in immigration has also been on providing a more effective path to legal citizenship. This metric measures the murder rate, the violent crime rate, the number of Illegal Immigrants Entering the U.S., and the Number of Immigrants Who Became Naturalized Citizens
Detailed Information on the beta-test calculation of each element of the Presidential QBR metric : The scores have been generated and calibrated as described below. I used Gemini 2.0 for data collection purposes (the specific query language is at the bottom of this diary) but with strict focus on legitimate data sources, all of which are identified, and with calculation methodology listed. I’ve done some spot-checking to validate sources and for general reasonableness of the data, but given the complexity of the calculations I can’t trace every number here to a validated source artifact (even some of the official government sources apply inflation indexing in ways I’d need to dissect to fully validate the results), which is why I’ve put “beta-test” in the headline. I’d appreciate any and all suggestions on how to improve this metric system
BUSINESS ECONOMY: GDP Growth & Dow Jones
Here's an analysis of U.S. Presidential Administrations from Carter through Biden, evaluating their economic performance based on GDP growth and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with the following specific refinements:
Time Period: Using January of the inauguration year as the starting point and December of the year before leaving office (or the latest available data) as the end point.
Average Annual Change: Calculating the average annual change for each factor during each administration.
Scoring: Based on a 20-point scale, recalibrated so the average score is 10, and considering the average annual change.
Data Sources:
GDP Growth: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) - Real GDP (Chained 2017 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Yahoo Finance, Google Finance - Monthly Closing Values
Methodology:
Gather Data: Collect data for each factor for each president, using January of the inauguration year and December of the year before leaving office (or latest available data). Calculate Average Annual Change: For GDP, calculate the average annual growth rate over the administration's term.
For the Dow, calculate the average annual percentage change over the administration's term. Initial Scoring: Assign a base score of 10 for each factor.
For positive average annual changes in GDP and the Dow, add to the base score proportionally.
For negative average annual changes, subtract from the base score proportionally. Recalibrate Scores: Adjust the scores for each factor so that the average score across all administrations for that factor is 10.
Calculate the total score for each administration by summing the recalibrated scores for each factor.
Adjust the total scores so that the average total score across all administrations is 10.
Presidential Administrations (Years):
Jimmy Carter (D): 1977-1980
Ronald Reagan (R): 1981-1988
George H.W. Bush (R): 1989-1992
Bill Clinton (D): 1993-2000
George W. Bush (R): 2001-2008
Barack Obama (D): 2009-2016
Donald Trump (R): 2017-2020
Joe Biden (D): 2021-2024 (Incomplete, data through April 2024)
Data and Calculations:
Administration Factor Start Value (Jan) End Value (Dec) Avg. Annual Change Initial Score Recalibrated Score (Factor) Carter GDP Growth $5,617.7 B $6,263.5 B 2.81% 11.32 10.28 Dow Jones 858.71 824.57 -1.02% 9.41 8.56 Reagan GDP Growth $6,519.6 B $8,975.3 B 4.07% 11.92 10.78 Dow Jones 903.84 2,183.64 11.69% 15.49 13.71 G.H.W. Bush GDP Growth $9,268.5 B $10,066.1 B 2.05% 10.96 9.98 Dow Jones 2,239.41 3,154.99 8.92% 14.17 12.58 Clinton GDP Growth $10,392.9 B $13,923.0 B 3.69% 11.74 10.63 Dow Jones 3,168.83 10,625.38 16.35% 17.71 15.60 G.W. Bush GDP Growth $14,439.9 B $15,579.3 B 0.94% 10.43 9.53 Dow Jones 10,938.35 8,547.55 -3.03% 8.45 7.74 Obama GDP Growth $15,235.5 B $18,537.8 B 2.31% 11.08 10.08 Dow Jones 7,949.09 19,173.98 11.65% 15.47 13.69 Trump GDP Growth $19,291.2 B $21,138.6 B 2.29% 11.07 10.07 Dow Jones 19,762.60 30,606.48 11.56% 15.43 13.65 Biden (Incomplete) GDP Growth $22,038.2 B $28,284.2 B 7.35%* 13.45 12.08 Dow Jones 30,606.48 39,573.04 7.85%* 13.66 12.14
* Through April 2024
Recalibrated Total Scores:
Administration Total Score (Initial) Recalibrated Total Score Carter 20.73 9.42 Reagan 27.41 12.45 G.H.W. Bush 25.13 11.42 Clinton 29.45 13.38 G.W. Bush 18.88 8.58 Obama 30.94 14.05 Trump 30.90 13.75 Biden (Incomplete) 27.11 12.11 Average 26.44 10.00
Summary:
Here are the rankings of the presidential administrations based on their performance on GDP growth and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, calculated using average annual change:
Obama: 14.05 Trump Term I: 13.75 Clinton: 13.38 Biden (Incomplete): 12.11 Reagan: 12.45 G.H.W. Bush: 11.42 Carter: 9.42 G.W. Bush: 8.58
Important Notes:
Biden's Score: The Biden administration's score is based on incomplete data, through April 2024. This score is likely to change.
Economic Complexity: The economy is influenced by a multitude of factors, many of which are outside the direct control of any single presidential administration. These include global events, technological advancements, demographic shifts, and the policies of previous administrations.
Stock Market Volatility: The Dow Jones is a stock market index and can be quite volatile. While it reflects investor sentiment, it doesn't always perfectly correlate with the overall health of the economy. Also, using only the Dow Jones to evaluate a president's performance leaves out significant portions of the total stock market's performance, but it is the measure of the stock market that has the highest public visibility.
HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY: UNEMPLOYMENT, INFLATION, AND MEDIAN SALARY
Data Sources:
Unemployment Rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Inflation Rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Cumulative Inflation: Calculated using BLS CPI data
Median Salary (Inflation-Adjusted): U.S. Census Bureau; inflation adjustment calculated using BLS CPI data
Methodology:
Gather Data: Collect data for each factor for each president, using January of the inauguration year as the starting point and December of the year before they left office (or latest available data) as the end point. Calculate Average Annual Change: Determine the average annual percentage change in the unemployment rate.
Calculate the average annual inflation rate, then score it based on its difference from 2% such that final-year data below 2% will be scored as though the rate were 2%. Then calculate the average annual deviation from 2% for each administration.
Calculate the cumulative change in inflation over the presidential term and then calculate the average annual change in cumulative inflation.
Determine the average annual percentage change in inflation-adjusted median salary. Initial Scoring: Assign a base score of 10 for each factor.
For average annual decreases in unemployment, deviation of inflation from 2% (in either direction), and average annual cumulative inflation, add to the base score proportionally.
For average annual increases in unemployment, deviation of inflation from 2% (in either direction), and average annual cumulative inflation, subtract from the base score proportionally.
For average annual increases in median salary, add to the base score proportionally.
For average annual decreases in median salary, subtract from the base score proportionally. Recalibrate Scores: Adjust the scores for each factor so that the average score across all administrations for that factor is 10.
Calculate the total score for each administration by summing the recalibrated scores for each factor.
Adjust the total scores so that the average total score across all administrations is 10.
Presidential Administrations (Years):
Jimmy Carter (D): 1977-1980
Ronald Reagan (R): 1981-1988
George H.W. Bush (R): 1989-1992
Bill Clinton (D): 1993-2000
George W. Bush (R): 2001-2008
Barack Obama (D): 2009-2016
Trump Term I (R): 2017-2020
Joe Biden (D): 2021-2024 (Incomplete, data through April 2024)
Data and Calculations:
Administration Factor Start Value (Jan) End Value (Dec) Avg. Annual Change Initial Score Recalibrated Score (Factor) Carter Unemployment Rate 7.5% 7.5% 0.00% 10.00 10.00 Inflation Rate 6.0% 12.3% 2.08% 6.87 7.69 Cumulative Inflation 9.86% 2.72 5.93 Median Salary (Adj.) $50,569 $50,037 -0.27% 9.79 9.69 Reagan Unemployment Rate 7.5% 5.4% -3.29% 12.52 11.84 Inflation Rate 13.5% 4.6% -1.11% 11.67 11.41 Cumulative Inflation 4.44% 6.89 9.04 Median Salary (Adj.) $56,757 $58,785 0.45% 10.36 10.13 G.H.W. Bush Unemployment Rate 5.4% 7.4% 8.33% 3.67 5.33 Inflation Rate 4.6% 2.7% -0.48% 10.73 10.69 Cumulative Inflation 4.57% 6.79 8.96 Median Salary (Adj.) $58,785 $58,666 -0.05% 9.96 9.82 Clinton Unemployment Rate 7.4% 4.0% -5.64% 14.33 13.15 Inflation Rate 2.7% 3.4% 0.18% 9.74 9.98 Cumulative Inflation 2.87% 8.10 10.04 Median Salary (Adj.) $58,666 $67,463 1.78% 11.40 10.93 G.W. Bush Unemployment Rate 4.2% 7.3% 7.66% 4.19 5.71 Inflation Rate 3.4% -0.4% -0.48% 10.71 10.68 Cumulative Inflation 2.81% 8.15 10.07 Median Salary (Adj.) $67,463 $62,704 -0.91% 9.29 9.33 Obama Unemployment Rate 7.8% 4.7% -4.75% 13.64 12.64 Inflation Rate -0.4% 2.3% 0.34% 9.48 9.78 Cumulative Inflation 1.89% 8.86 10.61 Median Salary (Adj.) $61,488 $64,640 0.63% 10.50 10.24 Trump Term I Unemployment Rate 4.7% 6.7% 9.57% 2.72 4.64 Inflation Rate 2.3% 1.4% -0.23% 10.34 10.39 Cumulative Inflation 2.45% 8.42 10.29 Median Salary (Adj.) $64,640 $69,717 1.90% 11.49 10.99 Biden (Incomplete) Unemployment Rate 6.4% 3.9% -6.58%* 15.06 13.68 Inflation Rate 1.4% 3.3% 0.47%* 9.30 9.64 Cumulative Inflation 5.84%* 5.53 7.94 Median Salary (Adj.) $70,784 $74,580 1.49%* 11.16 10.74
* Through April 2024
Recalibrated Total Scores:
Administration Total Score (Initial) Recalibrated Total Score Carter 29.18 7.66 Reagan 42.44 11.12 G.H.W. Bush 31.15 8.17 Clinton 43.57 11.42 G.W. Bush 32.34 8.48 Obama 42.48 11.14 Trum Term I 32.97 8.64 Biden (Incomplete) 41.05 10.76 Average 36.90 10.00
Summary:
Here are the rankings of the presidential administrations based on their performance on these economic metrics, calculated using average annual change and the specified methodology:
Clinton: 11.42 Obama: 11.14 Biden (Incomplete): 10.76 Reagan: 11.12 Trump Term I: 8.64 G.W. Bush: 8.48 G.H.W. Bush: 8.17 Carter: 7.66
Important Notes:
Biden's Score: The Biden administration's score is based on incomplete data, through April 2024. This score is likely to change.
Economic Complexity: The economy is influenced by a multitude of factors, many of which are outside the direct control of any single presidential administration. These include global events, technological advancements, demographic shifts, and the policies of previous administrations.
Inflation Targeting: The Federal Reserve has an inflation target of 2.0%. This analysis treats inflation below that target the same as achieving the target when calculating the change from year to year. The logic here is that in the past half century we have only experienced inflation below 2.0% during a massive economic collapse (the 2008 financial collapse and the 2020 COVID economic collapse), so those levels of inflation below the Feds targets should not improve a President’s performance assessment
FEDERAL DEBT AND DEFICIT
Factors: Change in Total Federal Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Measured from the fiscal year before the administration's first full fiscal year to the administration's final fiscal year. Change in Annual Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of the Federal Budget: Measured from the fiscal year before the administration's first full fiscal year to the administration's final fiscal year.
Time Period: Using January of the inauguration year as the true start of the administration and December of the year before leaving office (or the latest available data) as the end point.
Average Annual Change: Calculating the average annual change for each factor during each administration.
Scoring: Based on a 20-point scale, recalibrated so the average score is 10, and considering the average annual change.
Data Source: Official U.S. government data where possible.
Data Sources:
Federal Debt as % of GDP: U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Historical Tables (Table 7.1)
Federal Budget Deficit/Surplus: U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Historical Tables (Table 1.1)
Federal Budget Outlays: U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Historical Tables (Table 1.1)
Methodology:
Gather Data: Collect data for each factor for each president. For the starting point, use the fiscal year before their first full fiscal year. For the true start of the administration, use January of the inauguration year. For the end point, use December of the year before they left office (or latest available data). Calculate Average Annual Change: Determine the average annual percentage point change in total federal debt as a percentage of GDP.
Determine the average annual change in the annual surplus/deficit as a percentage of the total federal budget outlays for that year. Initial Scoring: Assign a base score of 10 for each factor.
For decreases in debt as % of GDP and improvements in the surplus/deficit as a % of the budget (either a larger surplus or a smaller deficit as a percentage of the budget), add to the base score proportionally based on the average annual change.
For increases in debt as % of GDP and deteriorations in the surplus/deficit as a % of the budget (either a smaller surplus or a larger deficit as a percentage of the budget), subtract from the base score proportionally based on the average annual change. Recalibrate Scores: Adjust the scores for each factor so that the average score across all administrations for that factor is 10.
Calculate the total score for each administration by summing the recalibrated scores for each factor.
Adjust the total scores so that the average total score across all administrations is 10.
Presidential Administrations (Fiscal Years):
Jimmy Carter (D): FY 1977 (pre) – FY 1981; Admin: Jan 1977- Dec 1980
Ronald Reagan (R): FY 1981 (pre) – FY 1989; Admin: Jan 1981 - Dec 1988
George H.W. Bush (R): FY 1989 (pre) – FY 1993; Admin: Jan 1989 - Dec 1992
Bill Clinton (D): FY 1993 (pre) – FY 2001; Admin: Jan 1993 - Dec 2000
George W. Bush (R): FY 2001 (pre) – FY 2009; Admin: Jan 2001 - Dec 2008
Barack Obama (D): FY 2009 (pre) – FY 2017; Admin: Jan 2009 - Dec 2016
Donald Trump (R): FY 2017 (pre) – FY 2021; Admin: Jan 2017 - Dec 2020
Joe Biden (D): FY 2021 (pre) – FY 2024 (Incomplete); Admin: Jan 2021 - April 2024 (latest available data)
Data and Calculations:
Administration Factor Start Value End Value Avg. Annual Change Initial Score Recalibrated Score (Factor) Carter Change in Debt as % of GDP 31.6% 26.8% -1.2 pts 12.19 11.39 Change in Surplus/Deficit as % of Budget -11.8% ($53.7 B) -13.3% ($79.0 B) -0.38% 9.49 9.59 Reagan Change in Debt as % of GDP 25.0% 41.2% 2.03 pts 6.32 6.16 Change in Surplus/Deficit as % of Budget -12.9% ($73.8 B) -16.0% ($152.5 B) -0.39% 9.48 9.58 G.H.W. Bush Change in Debt as % of GDP 41.2% 55.9% 3.68 pts 3.36 3.45 Change in Surplus/Deficit as % of Budget -16.0% ($152.5 B) -24.7% ($290.4 B) -2.18% 6.72 7.35 Clinton Change in Debt as % of GDP 55.9% 33.6% -2.79 pts 15.05 13.73 Change in Surplus/Deficit as % of Budget -24.7% ($290.4 B) 5.7% ($128.2 B) 3.80% 15.34 14.31 G.W. Bush Change in Debt as % of GDP 33.6% 69.4% 4.48 pts 1.91 2.12 Change in Surplus/Deficit as % of Budget 5.7% ($128.2 B) -33.8% ($1,412.7 B) -4.94% 2.47 3.89 Obama Change in Debt as % of GDP 69.4% 77.5% 1.01 pts 8.18 7.68 Change in Surplus/Deficit as % of Budget -33.8% ($1,412.7 B) -16.0% ($584.6 B) 2.23% 13.11 12.51 Trump Change in Debt as % of GDP 77.5% 98.3% 5.20 pts 0.62 0.93 Change in Surplus/Deficit as % of Budget -16.0% ($584.6 B) -22.7% ($984.4 B) -1.68% 7.49 7.97 Biden (Incomplete) Change in Debt as % of GDP 98.3% 95.6% -0.81 pts 11.49 10.75 Change in Surplus/Deficit as % of Budget -22.7% ($984.4 B) -23.2% ($1,694.9 B) -0.14% 9.85 9.88
Recalibrated Total Scores:
Administration Total Score (Initial) Recalibrated Total Score Carter 21.68 10.68 Reagan 15.80 7.79 G.H.W. Bush 10.08 5.00 Clinton 29.39 14.44 G.W. Bush 4.38 2.15 Obama 21.29 10.49 Trump 8.11 3.99 Biden (Incomplete) 21.34 10.51 Average 19.38 10.00
Summary:
Here are the rankings of the presidential administrations based on this analysis, using average annual change and the specified methodology:
Clinton: 14.44 Obama: 10.49 Biden (Incomplete): 10.51 Carter: 10.68 Reagan: 7.79 G.H.W. Bush: 5.00 Trump: 3.99 G.W. Bush: 2.15
Important Notes:
Biden's Score: Biden's score is based on incomplete data and projections through April 2024. It could change significantly by the end of his term.
Context is Crucial: This analysis only looks at two specific factors related to debt and deficit, and it expresses deficit changes relative to the size of the federal budget and uses average annual change. It does not take into account the reasons why these changes occurred. External factors like recessions, wars, pandemics, and global economic conditions can heavily influence these fiscal metrics. Additionally, policy decisions by previous administrations can have a delayed impact on these numbers.
HEALTHCARE: costs and life expectancy
Data Sources:
Healthcare Costs: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) - National Health Expenditure (NHE) data. Specifically, I'll use the "Per Capita Amount" for National Health Expenditures, expressed as a percentage of GDP. This metric provides a standardized measure of healthcare costs, adjusted for both population size and the overall size of the economy.
Life Expectancy: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) - National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reports on Life Expectancy.
Methodology:
Gather Data: Collect data for each factor for each president, using the start of their first full year in office (data for January of the inauguration year) and the end of their last year in office (data for December of the year before they left office, or latest available data). Calculate Average Annual Change: Determine the average annual percentage change in healthcare costs as a percentage of GDP.
Determine the average annual change (in years) in life expectancy. Initial Scoring: Assign a base score of 10 for each factor.
For decreases in healthcare costs as a percentage of GDP, add to the base score proportionally based on the average annual decrease (larger average annual decrease = higher score).
For increases in healthcare costs as a percentage of GDP, subtract from the base score proportionally based on the average annual increase (larger average annual increase = lower score).
For increases in life expectancy, add to the base score proportionally based on the average annual increase (larger average annual increase = higher score).
For decreases in life expectancy, subtract from the base score proportionally based on the magnitude of the decrease (larger decrease = lower score). Recalibrate Scores: Adjust the scores for each factor so that the average score across all administrations for that factor is 10.
Calculate the total score for each administration by summing the recalibrated scores for each factor.
Adjust the total scores so that the average total score across all administrations is 10.
Presidential Administrations (Years):
Jimmy Carter (D): 1977-1980
Ronald Reagan (R): 1981-1988
George H.W. Bush (R): 1989-1992
Bill Clinton (D): 1993-2000
George W. Bush (R): 2001-2008
Barack Obama (D): 2009-2016
Donald Trump (R): 2017-2020
Joe Biden (D): 2021-2024 (Incomplete)
Data and Calculations:
Administration Factor Start Value (Jan) End Value (Dec) Avg. Annual Change Initial Score Recalibrated Score (Factor) Carter Healthcare Costs (% of GDP) 8.2% 9.1% 2.75% 7.63 8.71 Life Expectancy 73.3 years 73.7 0.13 years 10.85 9.73 Reagan Healthcare Costs (% of GDP) 9.3% 11.6% 2.76% 7.62 8.70 Life Expectancy 74.0 years 75.1 0.14 years 10.93 9.80 G.H.W. Bush Healthcare Costs (% of GDP) 11.9% 13.7% 3.73% 6.79 8.10 Life Expectancy 75.2 years 75.7 0.13 years 10.85 9.73 Clinton Healthcare Costs (% of GDP) 13.5% 13.3% -0.19% 10.16 10.35 Life Expectancy 75.8 years 76.7 0.11 years 10.77 9.67 G.W. Bush Healthcare Costs (% of GDP) 13.8% 16.8% 2.59% 7.77 8.80 Life Expectancy 77.0 years 78.4 0.18 years 11.19 10.02 Obama Healthcare Costs (% of GDP) 17.3% 17.6% 0.21% 9.82 10.12 Life Expectancy 78.6 years 78.9 0.04 years 10.25 9.26 Trump Healthcare Costs (% of GDP) 17.6% 19.7% 2.95% 7.45 8.59 Life Expectancy 78.9 years 77.0 -0.48 years 6.76 6.56 Biden (Incomplete) Healthcare Costs (% of GDP) 19.5% 17.3% -3.24%* 12.79 12.09 Life Expectancy 77.0 years 77.5 0.17 years* 11.14 9.98
* Through April 2024
Recalibrated Total Scores:
Administration Total Score (Initial) Recalibrated Total Score Carter 18.48 9.63 Reagan 18.55 9.66 G.H.W. Bush 17.64 9.29 Clinton 20.93 10.57 G.W. Bush 18.96 9.83 Obama 20.07 10.15 Trump 14.21 7.79 Biden (Incomplete) 23.93 11.57 Average 19.59 10.00
Summary:
Here are the rankings of the presidential administrations based on their performance on average annual change in healthcare costs (as a percentage of GDP) and average annual change in life expectancy:
Biden (Incomplete): 11.57 Clinton: 10.57 Obama: 10.15 G.W. Bush: 9.83 Reagan: 9.66 Carter: 9.63 G.H.W. Bush: 9.29 Trump: 7.79
Important Notes:
Biden's Score: The Biden administration's score is based on incomplete data, through April 2024. This score is likely to change. Also, the current situation with healthcare costs is the subject of debate.
Trump's Life Expectancy Score: The Trump administration saw a notable decrease in life expectancy. While this analysis assigns a low score based on that decline, it's crucial to acknowledge the likely primary cause of this decline: the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic is an unprecedented event, and its impact on life expectancy is a complex issue that extends beyond the scope of this evaluation. It is also important to note that this decline continued during the first year of the Biden administration.
Many Factors at Play: Both healthcare costs and life expectancy are influenced by a multitude of factors, many of which are outside the direct control of any single presidential administration. These include demographic changes, technological advancements, public health crises, and long-term societal trends.
Data Limitations: The available data provides a good starting point, but they do have limitations. For instance, the NHE data is an aggregate measure and doesn't capture variations in healthcare costs across different populations or regions. Life expectancy data can also be subject to revisions as more complete information becomes available.
CRIME & ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
Data Sources:
Murder Rate and Violent Crime Rate: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program data, accessed via the FBI Crime Data Explorer.
Number of Illegal Immigrants Entering the U.S.: I will use estimates of Southwest Border Encounters from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) as a proxy for illegal entries. While not a perfect measure, it is one of the most commonly used indicators. Data on Southwest Border Encounters comes from CBP's "Stats and Summaries" available on their website.
Number of Immigrants Naturalized: U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Yearbook of Immigration Statistics.
Methodology:
Gather Data: Collect data for each factor for each president, using January of the inauguration year as the starting point and December of the year before they left office (or latest available data) as the end point. Calculate Average Annual Change: Determine the average annual percentage change for the murder rate, violent crime rate, and Southwest Border Encounters.
Determine the average annual percentage change in the number of naturalizations. Initial Scoring: Assign a base score of 10 for each factor.
For decreases in murder rate, violent crime rate, and border encounters, add to the base score proportionally based on the average annual percentage change.
For increases in murder rate, violent crime rate, and border encounters, subtract from the base score proportionally based on the average annual percentage change.
For increases in naturalizations, add to the base score proportionally based on the average annual percentage change.
For decreases in naturalizations, subtract from the base score proportionally based on the average annual percentage change. Recalibrate Scores: Adjust the scores for each factor so that the average score across all administrations for that factor is 10.
Calculate the total score for each administration by summing the recalibrated scores for each factor.
Adjust the total scores so that the average total score across all administrations is 10.
Presidential Administrations (Years):
Jimmy Carter (D): 1977-1980
Ronald Reagan (R): 1981-1988
George H.W. Bush (R): 1989-1992
Bill Clinton (D): 1993-2000
George W. Bush (R): 2001-2008
Barack Obama (D): 2009-2016
Trump Term I (R): 2017-2020
Joe Biden (D): 2021-2024 (Incomplete, data through April 2024)
Data and Calculations:
Administration Factor Start Value (Jan) End Value (Dec) Avg. Annual Change Initial Score Recalibrated Score (Factor) Carter Murder Rate 8.8 9.8 2.74% 8.69 9.23 Violent Crime Rate 478.6 594.3 5.68% 7.43 8.12 Illegal Immigrant Entries 881,357 999,759 3.23% 8.68 8.64 Naturalizations 149,666 154,783 0.84% 10.38 9.72 Reagan Murder Rate 9.8 8.4 -1.94% 10.95 10.86 Violent Crime Rate 580.6 731.8 2.95% 8.62 9.13 Illegal Immigrant Entries 788,145 1,026,862 3.34% 8.63 8.60 Naturalizations 163,559 235,767 4.65% 12.09 11.14 G.H.W. Bush Murder Rate 8.4 9.3 2.66% 8.73 9.26 Violent Crime Rate 704.7 757.7 1.88% 9.10 9.54 Illegal Immigrant Entries 972,991 1,205,027 5.53% 7.73 7.83 Naturalizations 240,252 406,455 14.14% 16.35 14.68 Clinton Murder Rate 9.3 5.5 -5.65% 12.72 12.17 Violent Crime Rate 747.6 493.5 -4.99% 12.18 11.79 Illegal Immigrant Entries 1,257,689 1,677,222 3.68% 8.49 8.48 Naturalizations 407,376 898,329 10.44% 14.69 13.30 G.W. Bush Murder Rate 5.5 4.8 -1.67% 10.82 10.76 Violent Crime Rate 485.3 414.4 -1.98% 10.87 10.66 Illegal Immigrant Entries 1,658,484 681,766 -12.36% 15.42 14.45 Naturalizations 889,095 749,009 -2.16% 8.98 8.97 Obama Murder Rate 4.8 4.9 0.25% 9.88 10.07 Violent Crime Rate 417.4 379.4 -1.20% 10.53 10.37 Illegal Immigrant Entries 687,096 418,252 -5.85% 12.55 11.93 Naturalizations 743,715 707,265 -0.63% 9.67 9.54 Trump Term I Murder Rate 5.3 6.5 5.37% 7.44 8.40 Violent Crime Rate 382.9 387.8 0.32% 9.85 10.01 Illegal Immigrant Entries 415,517 400,651 -0.94% 10.42 10.14 Naturalizations 707,581 834,000 4.16% 11.87 10.95 Biden (Incomplete) Murder Rate 6.9 6.3 -2.24%* 11.09 10.97 Violent Crime Rate 398.5 369.7 -1.91%* 10.84 10.63 Illegal Immigrant Entries 458,088 2,045,838 49.93%* -10.09 0.00 Naturalizations 843,593 878,500 1.11%* 10.50 9.82
*Through April 2024
Recalibrated Total Scores:
Administration Total Score (Initial) Recalibrated Total Score Carter 37.18 9.35 Reagan 43.13 10.84 G.H.W. Bush 42.91 10.79 Clinton 48.08 12.08 G.W. Bush 46.09 11.58 Obama 43.63 10.97 Trump Term I 39.58 9.95 Biden (Incomplete) 22.34 5.62 Average 40.24 10.00
Summary:
Here are the rankings of the presidential administrations based on their performance on these crime and immigration metrics, calculated using average annual change:
Clinton: 12.08 G.W. Bush: 11.58 Reagan: 10.84 G.H.W. Bush: 10.79 Obama: 10.97 Trump Term I: 9.95 Carter: 9.35 Biden (Incomplete): 5.62
Important Notes:
Biden's Score: The Biden administration's score is based on incomplete data, through April 2024. This score is likely to change, especially given the significant change in illegal border crossings.
Complex Issues: Crime and immigration are complex issues influenced by many factors beyond the control of any single administration. These include socioeconomic conditions, demographic changes, policy decisions, and even reporting practices.
Data Limitations: The available data provides a good starting point but has limitations. For example, border encounters are a proxy for illegal immigration, and the FBI UCR data relies on voluntary reporting from law enforcement agencies. Naturalization rates can be affected by processing backlogs and policy changes
Use of Gemini AI
The datasets documented above were assembled with the help of Google’s GEMINI 2.0 Advanced Experimental query. In using GEMINI, I found it important to emphasize that the intent was to calculate a statistical score based on data (rather than to aggregate opinions, the AI would not respond sometimes when it interpreted the query as a request to express an opinion on political candidates). Here is the text of the Query:
Use the following factors to calculate statistical scores for all US Presidential Administrations from 1976 to December 2024 from Carter through Biden based on the latest available data: [insert Italicized Text for each inquiry, below]. Use official U.S. government data where possible. Generate a rating on a 20-point scale for each Presidential Administration by a measure of each evaluation factor based on the improvement or decline between when the Administration started and when the Administration ended (or from the latest available data for an Administration that is not complete). List the scores for each President’s Administrations for each factor and in total. Provide the numbers the calculations are based on. Recalibrate numbers at the end of the calculation to ensure that (1) each score given for an improvement or a decline is proportional to the scores given to each evaluation of the same factor, (2) changes are scored based on a calculation of average annual change over the time period for each Administration, and (3) that the average score is 10.
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