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The Coming Recession [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-01-08
Though I am not formally trained as an economist, as an avid reader of economic journals, and having some background in economics as an undergraduate many years ago, I don’t see how a recession can be avoided given the purported aims of the incoming administration. Paradoxically, the best chance of avoiding a recession would be for the Congress to prevent Trump from passing any of his goals.
The signs of the coming recession are already visible. Interest rates have stopped decreasing and in fact are increasing. The cost of doing business because of this will inevitably increase for this reason if no other. While job and economic growth is currently satisfactory, the ongoing and future increase in long term interest rates will probably within the next six to nine months will slow down and reverse this growth. The Federal Reserve projects another 25-50 points of interest rate reduction this year but I wouldn’t bet on it. There may be in fact in increase in rates before the end of the year. Finally the stock market, although not the best of future indicator of economic growth, is looking more and more shaky each passing day.
The domestic economic goals of the incoming administration combined with its international saber rattling promises to make any recession worse. I am dumbfounded that Trump doesn’t realize that his proposed tariffs on imported goods will only increase inflation in this country while decrease our exports because other countries will inevitably retaliate against our goods. This outcome helped to extend the Great Depression. His policy against so called illegal immigration will cause extreme shortages of agricultural and construction workers. Prices for food and housing will shoot up causing further economic hardship for everyone.
Trump has never taken any responsibility for any stupid decision he has made throughout his life. He is a bully and will blame everyone outside of his inner circle of advisors. All democrats will be subjected to lies regarding our actions and how we caused the economic quagmire that we will find ourselves in by the beginning of 2026. We, when we vote in November, 2026 must be certain to kick as many republicans out of office as is possible. Hopefully, we will be joined by those republicans who will see the economic devastation that Trump’s policies are causing and will value their country and its workers above their party.
I hope the coming Congress in view of how closely divided it is, will smooth the worst aspects of Trump’s policies to modify its potential negative impact on the economy. If this doesn’t happen, I sincerely hope I am wrong in my analysis of the future of our economy.
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