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Speaker Mike Johnson’s Narrow Majority: The Chaos to Come [1]
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Date: 2025-01-04
It’s official. Mike Johnson (R-LA) is officially the Speaker of the House after just one round of voting. 1 The vote, which took place last Friday, was a remarkably narrow 218 to 215, with Rep. Johnson barely managing to peel away his opposition to his side at the last minute. Now that he holds the gavel, Speaker Johnson faces a historically narrow majority.2 He also confronts a radical faction in the Freedom Caucus that could sink the 119th Congress before it truly begins.
What Happened?
Earlier Friday afternoon, the House of Representatives met to elect the Speaker of the House. This process, which is usually symbolic in its nature and is a requirement before any new Congressmembers are sworn in, has proven difficult for the House Republicans in recent years. In January of 2023, Rep. Kevin McCarthy went through a humiliating 15 rounds of voting before he was finally elected to the Speakership. 3 He was subsequently removed from the Speakership in October thanks to members such as Matt Gaetz. Gaetz has since resigned his position amid sexual misconduct allegations announced by the House ethics committee. 4 5
In the context of this dysfunction, Mike Johnson’s victory in the first round is honestly surprising. The Republican Party, despite nominating Donald Trump three times for the presidency, is far from unified, especially in the House. 6 7 8 Hard-right members such as as Representatives Thomas Massie (R-KY), Keith Self (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-NC) all openly opposed Johnson’s election. Six other Republicans abstained until it became clear that Johnson would lose the vote if they didn’t move.
As the New York Times explains:
By the time three other Republicans — Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Keith Self of Texas and Ralph Norman of South Carolina — voted for lawmakers other than Mr. Johnson, it appeared that he was at risk of losing the gavel to Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic leader. But eventually, the six lawmakers who had initially withheld their votes changed them to support Mr. Johnson, a Louisiana Republican. With three defectors, he was still short of the majority necessary to win re-election. Mr. Johnson then huddled with two of the holdouts — first in the center aisle of the House floor, and then in an adjacent room — as the vote was held open for nearly an hour. They returned together to the floor, and Mr. Self and Mr. Norman strode to the center of the chamber and changed their votes with Mr. Johnson looking on, handing him the support necessary to win another term as Republicans stood and applauded. 9
Speaker Johnson denies that any deal was made in exchange for the Speakership. He argues that he promised the pair of lawmakers “nothing.” Needless to say, it would be naïve to believe him.10 Republican hardliners had consistently been pushing Johnson for commitments to include them in negotiations going forward, in addition to demanding spending cuts. In an interview with The Hill, one Republican House member explained:
“I would say it’s two things: One, we want a real commitment for real spending cuts. And then the other thing is that we want him to start using the members to negotiate these bills and what’s gonna be in these packages. 11
That push for commitments and the hesitation of nine Republicans to support Johnson in the initial vote suggests that, at the very least, Johnson isn’t in any position to ignore the concerns of his right-wing colleagues. Combine that with Johnson’s reliance on the endorsement of President-elect Donald Trump, and it becomes painfully obvious that Johnson is standing on unstable ground in the House. 12With only a five-seat majority, and several members leaving due to appointments to the Trump administration, Johnson can ill-afford to lose any support.13
What Now?
While it is unlikely that we will see another revolt against the Speaker yet, as the incoming Trump administration wants a smooth transition, there is a serious risk to the House’s ability to govern. With Democrats having gained a seat in the last election, and Republicans leaving, every vote counts. If Johnson fails to appease Democrats and hardliner Republicans, he could find the House becoming historically unproductive and useless.
In 2024, the 118th Congress earned the undesirable distinction of the least productive Congress since the Civil War.14 While nothing is guaranteed, and Trump is almost certainly going to try to prevent that through pressure politics, the House is likely on track to earn that distinction as well. Though as with all things, we will have to wait and see.
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Originally published at
https://theprogressiveamerican.com on January 4, 2025.
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References
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