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Ukraine Invasion Day 1,046: RU tanker still in Finnish custody [1]

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Date: 2025-01-03

A Finnish court on Friday denied a request for the release of an oil tanker suspected by police of damaging an undersea power line and four telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea last week.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 2 to 3.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 93 Shahed and other strike and decoy drones from Millerovo, Rostov Oblast and Bryansk and Oryol oblasts.[58] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 60 Shahed and other drones over Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts; that Ukrainian countermeasures caused 26 decoy drones to become "locally lost" and that one drone remained in Ukrainian airspace as of 0900 local time. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian drones struck several private enterprises and residential complexes in Donetsk and Chernihiv oblasts and that debris from downed drones damaged residential homes and civilian vehicles in Kyiv Oblast. Ukrainian officials stated that Russian strikes also damaged residential areas on the outskirts of Chernihiv City and the private sector of Sumy City.[59] Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk reported that the Russian strike against Kyiv City on January 1 damaged administrative buildings of the Verkhovna Rada.[60] understandingwar.org/... The Hajun Project, an independent Belarusian monitoring group, reported on January 3 that a total of 395 Russian drones entered Belarusian airspace in 2024.[61] The Hajun Project stated that 145 Russian drones entered Belarusian airspace during December 2024 alone, of which 36 returned to Ukrainian and Russian airspace and 109 went missing. The Hajun Project added that air defenses downed 10 Shahed drones over Latvian and Belarusian airspace in 2024. understandingwar.org/...

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined the conditions that must be met to push Russia to agree to a "just peace." Zelensky stated on January 2 that achieving a "just peace" in future negotiations – a concept Zelensky highlighted in his December 31 New Year’s address – requires a strong Ukrainian military, security guarantees from Western allies, and Ukraine's future membership in NATO and the European Union (EU) in order to deter Russia from renewed aggression against Ukraine.[1] Zelensky stated that Ukraine cannot achieve a just peace with a small military, such as "40,000 or 50,000 soldiers" – a reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin's initial demand during the Istanbul peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Spring 2022 that Ukraine demilitarize and only maintain a force of roughly 50,000 personnel.[2] Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly demanded conditions for ending the war that amount to Ukraine's complete capitulation, including the removal of the legitimate Ukrainian government and Ukraine's demilitarization.[3] These demands have not changed since 2021. understandingwar.org/...

Key Takeaways: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined the conditions that must be met to push Russia to agree to a "just peace."

Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukraine is working to further increase its drone and missile capabilities in support of this goal.

Zelensky reiterated on January 2 that the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian law prohibit Ukraine from holding presidential and parliamentary elections during periods of martial law.

Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that several Russian ships will soon arrive at the Port of Tartus in Syria to evacuate Russian military assets to Libya.

Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to support its official “Glaz/Groza” reconnaissance and strike unit coordination software package despite Russian soldiers’ continued reliance on other ad hoc communications systems.

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