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Why we lost and what to do about it [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-01-02
Why We Lost
Job One is to understand what motivates Trumpers.
Why? The same reason that any competitor tries to learn as much as possible about the opposition. Sports teams scout the next opponent. Generals spend billions to gain intelligence on the enemy.
"If you know the enemy you need not fear the result of a hundred battles"
— Sun Tzu
Let’s be clear. We don’t want to learn about the enemy in order to empathize with them. NO! We want to defeat them. Most progressives can’t stand the thought of talking to a MAGA, let alone get inside their heads. I’m sorry. We have no margin of error left! HOLD YOUR NOSE AND MARCH FORWARD.
One single statistically significant variable predicts whether a voter supports Trump—and it’s not race, income, or education levels: It’s Authoritarianism. Authoritarian personalities believe that society is arranged hierarchically. The people on top are owed allegiance by the people below. If somebody moves up the totem pole, they must necessarily displace someone above them. We live in a zero-sum world. According to Dr. Bob Altemeyer authoritarian personalities are driven by fear.
Altemeyer and other researchers have accumulated truly massive amounts of data to prove that MAGAs are desperately afraid that their place in the totem pole will be taken by someone below. That position is more important to them than life itself.
According to Altemeyer, Authoritarians “do not see laws as social standards that apply to all. Instead, they appear to think that authorities are above the law, and can decide which laws apply to them and which do not”. Given that laws are less important to Authoritarians than appointed leaders, to Authoritarians A STRONG LEADER IS NECESSARY TO PROVIDE PROTECTION AND SAFETY.
You may ask why so many women voted for Trump. The reason is that while women are not at the top of the MAGA totem pole, they fear being displaced by groups below them. In addition, he was perceived as that strong leader who could protect them.
Trumpers believe that without Trump they are nothing.
The rest of us live in an egalitarian world. If someone betters themselves, it’s not bad for me. In fact, it’s probably good, because they might be moving off welfare, or paying more taxes.
It’s NOT the economy, stupid.
Polling data would have us believe that the biggest reason for Kamala’s defeat was the economy. DON’T BELIEVE IT. Oh, for sure that’s what people will tell a pollster. And I’m sure that’s what they’re telling themselves, too. What’s the real reason? Do you really think that most people will admit that they’re racists or misogynists?? Even to themselves?
A number of studies have shown that Trump supporters are NOT motivated by economic worries, but rather, by CULTURAL FEAR:
Time to Kill the Zombie Argument: Another Study Shows Trump Won Because of Racial Anxieties — Not Economic Distress
https://theintercept.com/2018/09/18/2016-election-race-class-trump/
In May 2017 The Atlantic magazine and Public Religion Research Institute, or PRRI, published the results of a joint analysis of post-election survey data.
https://www.prri.org/research/white-working-class-attitudes-economy-trade-immigration-election-donald-trump/
in January 2018 a study concluded that “…racism and sexism attitudes were strongly associated with vote choice in 2016, even after accounting for partisanship, ideology, and other standard factors.”
http://people.umass.edu/schaffne/schaffner_et_al_PSQ_accepted.pdf
These data are from the 2016 election. But when the studies are completed on the 2024 election, they will show the same thing.
What to do about it
Ok, so now we know what drove the election to Trump in 2024. What do we do about it?
The answer will come in two parts. First, what can each of us do individually, second, what should Democrats do next time around.
First, what can each of us do individually?
Talk to your friends and, yes, even your Trumper friends. We don’t like conflict. And we Americans are not overloaded with patience. When someone disagrees with us, we quickly give up and consign the opponent to idiocy. I know this is not easy, but there’s so much at stake, you really need to make the sacrifice.
Keep in mind that you’re in sales now. Sales is tough. Even the best realize that they’ll lose the sale MOST of the time. That’s OK. Here’s a tip I heard from a top rainmaker: START BY LISTENING!
Listen to them with the intent of understanding. Actively listen, interrupting only with questions of clarification. FORMULATING WHAT YOU’RE GOING TO SAY WHILE THE OTHER ONE SPEAKS IS NOT ACTIVE LISTENING.
What’s their motivation? Not what they SAY is their motivation; what’s really motivating them?
Even if you don’t change their mind, the fact that you spent your valuable time listening to them will convince them that you value them as a human being. And that’s a lot.
Join your local Democratic Party. IF YOU WANT THE RIGHT TO COMPLAIN, YOU NEED TO GET DOWN INTO THE MUD AND FIGHT. It won’t be fun, but maybe you can bend the trajectory (Which way? Keep reading).
Second, what should Democrats do for 2028?
We need a candidate who is perceived as strong. I believe that Harris was a strong candidate and would have been an excellent president. However, she was not PERCEIVED as strong.
A Gallup poll in October ’24 showed that Trump was viewed as “a strong and decisive leader” by 11 percentage points over Harris, and “Can get things done” by 12%. All other characteristics were either even or positive for Harris. The message here is that AMERICANS VALUE STRENGTH AND DECISIVENESS IN THEIR LEADERS ABOVE ALL.
Harris is strong and decisive. But her campaign did not convey that truth.
Why??
Here’s one reason:
HARRIS HUMILIATED TRUMP IN THE DEBATE. That should have been a clue to MAGA that she’s stronger than he is. But clues are never enough for people who are paralyzed with fear. She challenged him to another debate. He refused. MAGA still didn’t apprehend the clue.
After that? Silence from Democrats about the debate.
That debate challenge should have been blasted at 120 decibels on all media, including Joe Rogan, every day from the Harris campaign: “Trump is afraid to debate me because TRUMP IS WEAK!”
Had the Harris campaign done that, they would have deprived the MAGAs of the strong leader that they so desperately need, and at least a few would have stayed home.
The Ask: Folks, the stakes are high. Prepare yourself for the coming Crash. Maybe it will only be as bad as the 2008 financial melt-down. More likely it will approach the Great Depression. Many of the clowns that Trump appoints to his cabinet will crash out of the sky, ripping great chunks of our Constitutional protections with them. Millions of lives will be ruined. Democrats will need to be prepared to bail out the country as we always do. Start by loudly asking, “Who hired those criminals?”
My challenge to you is to get involved in the Democratic Party and INSIST ON A CANDIDATE WHO WILL RADIATE STRENGTH ON ALL FREQUENCIES.
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