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Ukraine Invasion Day 1,045: In Moscow, people came out to see the fireworks. But there were none. [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-01-02

Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 31 to January 1.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 111 Shahed and other strike drones from Bryansk and Oryol oblasts; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Crimea.[85] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 63 Shahed and other drones over Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zaporizhia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv oblasts; that 46 decoy drones were "locally lost" without negative consequences, likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference; and that two decoys flew back over Belarusian and Russian airspace. Ukrainian officials reported that debris from downed Russian drones damaged residential infrastructure in Pecherskyi Raion and transportation infrastructure in Svyatoshynskyi Raion in Kyiv City.[86] ... Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck Odesa Oblast with a cruise missile on the afternoon of December 31, damaging an administration building.[88] Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Ivan Fedorov reported that 10 Shahed drones flew over Zaporizhia Oblast, five of which Ukrainian forces downed.[89] Khmelnytskyi Oblast Head Serhii Tyurin reported that Ukrainian forces downed two Shaheds over Khmelnytskyi Oblast.[90] Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 47 Shahed and other drones over Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts Russian forces also conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 1 to 2. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 72 Shahed and other strike drones from Bryansk, Oryol, and Kursk oblasts and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[91] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 47 Shahed and other drones over Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts; that 24 decoy drones were "locally lost", likely due to Ukrainian EW interference; and that one drone remained in the air as of 0800 local time. Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported on January 2 that Ukrainian forces destroyed seven Shahed drones over southern Ukraine.[92] Mykolaiv Oblast Administration Head Vitaly Kim reported on January 2 that Ukrainian forces destroyed two Shaheds overnight and that Russian forces launched ballistic missiles, possibly S-400s, on January 1 against Mykolaiv Oblast.[93] ...Fedorov reported that Russian forces struck Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhia Oblast with 11 KAB glide bombs on January 2, destroying a five-story residential apartment building.[95] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported during his New Year's national address on December 31 that Ukrainian forces shot down 1,310 cruise and ballistic missiles and 7,800 Iranian Shahed drones in 2024.[96] Kharkiv City Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported on January 1 that Russian strikes targeting Kharkiv City were less intense in December 2024 than in previous months and that Russian forces struck the city 318 times with missiles, drones, and aerial bombs in 2024.[97] Kremlin newswire TASS claimed, citing Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) data, that Russian forces conducted over 1,500 strikes with high precision weapons and drones against targets in Ukraine in 2024.[98]

When New Year celebrations go wrong: Car filled with fireworks cooks off in Moscow region. According to eyewitnesses, the vehicle caught fire after a collision, setting off the fireworks inside.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signaled that Ukraine will increase drone and missile strikes against Russia in 2025 as part of efforts to bring Russia to accept Ukraine's demands for a "just peace" in future negotiations. Zelensky stated in his New Years Eve address on December 31, 2024, that Ukraine seeks to accomplish a "just peace" in the war and announced that Ukraine is once again building its own missiles and produced over one million drones in 2024.[14] Zelensky noted that Ukraine is producing large quantities of "Palyanytsya," "Peklo," "Ruta," "Neptune," and "Sapsan" missiles, some of which Ukrainian forces have yet to use. Zelensky emphasized that the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) produced 30 percent of all military equipment that Ukrainian forces used on the frontlines in 2024. Zelensky described Ukrainian missiles and drones as Ukrainian "arguments for a just peace" and noted that Ukraine can only accomplish such a peace if it is strong. Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike in Kursk Oblast, reportedly against a Russian military command post. Geolocated footage published on January 2 showed a damaged building and Russian military vehicles after a Ukrainian missile strike against Ivanovskoye, Kursk Oblast.[18] Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike, possibly with HIMARS, against the command post of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF], Southern Military District [SMD]) in the settlement, while Kursk Oblast Acting Governor Alexander Khinshtein claimed that the strike damaged the House of Culture in the area.[19] x x YouTube Video Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) specified new details about the December 31 Ukrainian naval drone strike against Russian Mi-8 helicopters in the Black Sea as Ukrainian strikes continue to degrade Russian operations in occupied Crimea. The GUR reported on January 2 that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone used missiles to destroy two Russian Mi-8 helicopters and damage one in the Black Sea on December 31.[21] The GUR previously reported that the naval drone strike only destroyed one helicopter and damaged another.[22] Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk doubted Russian reports that there were eight crewmembers aboard the helicopters but noted that the loss of highly trained helicopter crews is significant.[23] Pletenchuk also noted that Ukrainian strikes against occupied Crimea have deprived Russian forces of sustainable logistics in the area, including by damaging the railway on the Kerch Strait Bridge and ferries that transported railway cars and fuel tankers.[24] www.understandingwar.org/... x x YouTube Video

Key Takeaways: Blue circles are the last remaining routes, all within striking distance for Ukrainian Armed Forces' homegrown missile arsenal. Ukraine's decision to not renew its contract to transport Russian gas through Ukrainian territory will likely significantly impact Russian gas revenues despite Kremlin posturing to the contrary.

Gazprom is likely attempting to exploit the cessation of gas transits through Ukraine to create an artificial energy crisis to destabilize Moldova.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signaled that Ukraine will increase drone and missile strikes against Russia in 2025 as part of efforts to bring Russia to accept Ukraine's demands for a "just peace" in future negotiations.

Russia intends to issue Russian licenses for the operation of all six of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant's (ZNPP) reactors by 2028 as part of Moscow's long-term efforts to legitimize its illegal occupation of the plant and exploit Ukraine's energy supplies.

Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike in Kursk Oblast, reportedly against a Russian military command post.

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) specified new details about the December 31 Ukrainian naval drone strike against Russian Mi-8 helicopters in the Black Sea as Ukrainian strikes continue to degrade Russian operations in occupied Crimea.

Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to inadequately supply Russian military personnel with basic equipment and ammunition, forcing soldiers to provide their own materiel.

Ukrainian and Russian forces continued combat engagements in Ukraine's salient in Kursk Oblast on January 1 and 2, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. ... The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled six Ukrainian counterattacks in Kursk Oblast on January 1.[29]... Elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF]) and 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in the Kursk direction.[33] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... x x YouTube Video www.understandingwar.org/...

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