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Harris needs a Dem Senate in 2025. Let's do this. The Village 9-18-2024 [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2024-09-18

Harris needs Democrats in control of the US House and Senate to govern well, get liberal laws passed, and continue to appoint qualified Dem judges. We are losing WV, so we must pick up one and hold all other Senate seats.

Let’s look at the tightest Senate races right now.

AS of Sept 12, Cook Report www.cookpolitical.com/… says:

Leans Dem Toss Up Leans R Likely R

AZ-OPEN (Gallego) MI-OPEN (Slotkin) MT-Tester FL-Scott vs Mucarsel-Powell

NV-Rosen OH-Brown TX- Cruz vs Allred

PA-Casey Jr.

WI-Baldwin

[Angela Alsobrooks, holds a slight lead over Larry Hogan, the former Republican governor, in public polls for MD-OPEN in a Likely Dem state.]

CBS News poll for 2024 Senate races shows Democrats lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Though Democrats face a formidable U.S. Senate map in 2024, they're currently ahead in three key races. In CBS News' first poll of the race for Michigan's open Senate seat, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is leading former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers by seven points. Meanwhile, Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin are ahead in their reelection bids by seven points and eight points, respectively... www.cbsnews.com/...

Since Sinema quit the race, Gallego consistently has led in publicly available polling. The nonpartisan FiveThirtyEight political website shows 24 polls other than the Club for Growth in the Arizona race since Sinema quit. Gallego has led in 21 of them with two ties. His average lead in those polls is nearly 5 percentage points. www.azcentral.com/…

Rosen in NV and Brown in OH seem to have small, but consistent leads in their states.

SO, Lets Focus on

Tester in MT, Mucarsel-Powell in FL, & Allred in TX

Jon Tester in MT- We need to keep him in place

Tester’s race was always going to be a tough one, as Montana has gotten steadily redder since he first won his seat in 2006. Running on his background as a moderate state senator and family farmer, he ousted his GOP opponent, Sen. Conrad Burns, by only 3,562 votes. Tester’s first two re-election campaigns came a little easier. He outperformed Barack Obama by 7 points in 2012, winning re-election in a state the president lost. His third race saw him win more than 50% of the vote during an election season where four of his fellow incumbent red-state Democrats lost their seats…

A recent poll from the AARP that gives Sheehy a strong but not insurmountable lead was the tipping point for the prognosticators to say there’s a better chance for Tester to be toppled.

But as Semafor’s Burgess Everett recently noted, “Montana is also hard to poll and its statewide elections can turn on just a few thousand votes, leaving plenty of potential wrinkles and unknowns to potentially tip the race.” Sheehy has had missteps, too, including being caught on tape demeaning Native American residents in comments at fundraisers. www.msnbc.com/...

For your GOP friends, share this: I’m a Republican and voting for Jon Tester | Don Seifert

Donation site for Tester: secure.actblue.com/…

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL — Let’s Boost Her Profile & Funds

Florida is among 10 states national Democrats are targeting for a $25 million push to expand voter outreach, according to multiple outlets. Why it matters: New spending from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shows the party is working to maintain its Senate advantage and sees winning in the Sunshine State as a potential way to do that. For years, the party overlooked Florida.

This year, citing an anticipated boost in progressive interest due to referenda on marijuana and abortion rights, party leaders here have been urging national Democrats to flip the script. www.axios.com/...

Past work in the House—

Serving in Congress, Debbie fought to expand opportunity for every American. Debbie wrote the bill to expand seniors’ Medicare Advantage coverage, and she worked with Republicans to provide economic relief to families and small businesses, and secured $200 million for Everglades restoration. Today, Debbie takes care of her elderly mother and knows firsthand what it’s like to take care of aging parents while also taking care of her own children. www.debbieforflorida.com/...

Fun Florida Fact—

What state has the most Haitians? Florida

Florida has the highest number of Haitians in the United States, with 487,632 individuals, representing 2.15% of the state's population.

Also, more than 300,000 Haitian-Americans are registered voters in Florida. In 2018 (when their voting data was analyzed), they had a 73% voting rate which was about 10 pts higher than that other non-Haitian Floridians.

Wonder if that will matter this year? GOP Scott won his last race by about 10,000 votes.

Donation site for Mucarsel-Powell: secure.actblue.com/...

Colin Allred in TX —Let’s Boost His Profile & Funds

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