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Ukraine Invasion Day 673: drone war continues [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-12-27

​Russian forces launched another series of Shahed-136/131 drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on December 27.

Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched 46 Shaheds in several waves from the directions of Balaklava (occupied Crimea) and Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Krasnodar Krai, Russia).[24] Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down 32 Shaheds, and Ukrainian air defense systems activated over Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhia, Khmelnytskyi, and Kirovohrad oblasts. Ukrainian military officials reported that most of the drones that Ukrainian forces could not shoot down hit frontline areas, especially in Kherson Oblast.[25] Several Shaheds also fell without any consequences. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk reported that Russian forces have changed their tactics and are now attempting to direct Shaheds through residential areas, where Ukrainian forces reportedly cannot maintain stationary air defense systems.[26]

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 27, 2023 ■ More strikes on both sides but fewer combat engagements, unchanged number of settlements under artillery fire ■ Casualties & landbased equipment losses below 7-day average ■ December on track though to become a record month in terms of… pic.twitter.com/c5extap67z

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces reportedly advanced near Kreminna amid continued positional fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 27. ...Ukrainian and Russian sources claimed that positional fighting occurred northeast and southeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Ivanivka and west and southwest of Kreminna near Dibrova and the Serebryanske forest area.[52]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces recently made advances northeast of Bakhmut and continued positional fighting with Ukrainian forces in the area on December 27. Geolocated footage published on December 27 indicates that Russian forces advanced closer to the eastern outskirts of Spirne (northeast of Bakhmut).[53] …. Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces are trying to develop an offensive operation in the direction of Spirne and Bilohorivka (21km northeast of Bakhmut) and are training assault units from unspecified Russian Airborne (VDV) formations to conduct offensive operations in the area.[55]

Russian forces reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on December 27 and continued positional engagements with Ukrainian forces. ...Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that positional battles occurred northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka, west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske and in the direction of Chasiv Yar, and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.[57] Syrskyi stated that the Russian command recently transferred unspecified elements of the Russian Volunteer Corps from the southern direction to the Bakhmut area and that unspecified personnel of the Caspian Flotilla are participating in offensive operations in the area.[58] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on December 24 that the Russian command is deploying elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) near Kurdyumivka (southwest of Bakhmut) after withdrawing these elements from fighting near Krynky and Pidstepne in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast for reconstitution and replenishment over an unspecified period of time.[59]

Ukrainian forces recently advanced west of Horlivka and continued positional engagements with Russian forces on December 27. Geolocated footage published on December 26 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced further into a waste heap west of Horlivka.[60] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on December 27 that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian assault near Niu-York (west of Horlivka).[61]

Russian forces recently advanced north of Avdiivka and continued positional engagements with Ukrainian forces on December 27. Geolocated footage published on December 26 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in eastern Stepove (north of Avdiivka).[62] Additional geolocated footage published on December 27 indicates that Russian forces advanced south of the Avdiivka waste heap (northeast of Avdiivka).[63] Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that positional fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Ocheretyne, Novokalynove, and Novobakhmutivka; north of Avdiivka near Stepove; near the Avdiivka Coke Plant in northwestern Avdiivka; near the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Sieverne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.[64] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that Russian forces are conducting assaults with armored vehicle support near Avdiivka and that in the past day, Ukrainian forces destroyed 60 percent of the Russian armored vehicles that participated in assaults.[65] Elements of the irregular Russian “Pyatnashka” Brigade are reportedly participating in Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka.[66]

Tarnavskyi, the Ukrainian commander responsible for the Avdiivka direction, stated on December 27 that the Russian effort to capture Avdiivka continues to be the Russian military’s main offensive effort in Ukraine. Tarnavskyi stated that the Avdiivka direction is the main direction of the current Russian offensive effort, that the Marinka direction is a subordinated Russian offensive effort, and that Russian offensive operations in the Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City) and Novopavlivka (western Donetsk Oblast) directions are diversionary efforts.[67] Tarnavskyi stated that Russian forces do not want to repeat attritional frontal urban assaults reminiscent of the gradual likely Russian capture of Marinka and instead plan to bypass and encircle Avdiivka.[68] Tarnavskyi stated that Russian forces are constantly transferring forces, primarily Storm-Z and Storm-V units, to the Avdiivka direction to support attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses.[69]

Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and retook positions that Ukrainian forces had captured during the summer 2023 counteroffensive, likely after Ukrainian forces withdrew to more defensible positions near Robotyne for the winter. Geolocated footage published on December 14 and 27 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced west of Verbove (9km east of Robotyne).[7] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated in an interview with BBC published on December 27 that Russia’s leadership wants to retake Avdiivka at a minimum but has a more ambitious goal of capturing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and recapturing the territory Russian forces lost in Zaporizhia Oblast during the Ukrainian counteroffensive.[8] ISW assessed that the Ukrainian capture of nearby positions in August 2023 was tactically significant because it could have allowed Ukrainian forces to begin operating past the densest Russian minefields and subsequent Russian defensive layers but does not assess that the recapture of these positions by Russian forces is particularly significant at this time.[9] Recent Russian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast nevertheless support ISW’s assessment that the current positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate because the current balance can be tipped in either direction by decisions made in the West or in Russia, and limited Russian gains could become significant especially if the West cuts off military aid to Ukraine.[10]

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/27/2213976/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-673-drone-war-continues?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

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