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Ukraine Invasion Day 671: F-16s are go! [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-12-25

Russia has launched 7,400 missiles and 3,700 drones at Ukraine since the invasion’s start.

Russian sources claim that Ukrainians have received a squadron of F-16 fighter jets, strategically deploying them across airfields in western Ukraine. This aligns with the Institute for the Study of War’s observation, citing a recent Estonian Ministry of Defense strategy document indicating plans for the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium to send F-16s to Ukraine before year-end. This adds fuel to speculations surrounding the recent ambush and the unusual quietness in Russian aviation. Russian forces are reportedly decreasing aviation activity and their use of glide bombs in Ukraine after Ukrainian forces shot down three Russian Su-34s in southern Ukraine between December 21 and 22. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on December 24 that Russian forces decreased their use of glide bombs and air strikes in southern Ukraine.[5] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on December 24 that Russian forces are limiting their use of manned aviation near occupied Crimea, particularly in the northwestern Black Sea region.[6] ISW previously assessed that Russian forces may have recently intensified their use of glide bombs against Ukrainian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in part because Ukrainian forces reportedly suppressed Russian long-range artillery in the area.[7] Continued decreased Russian glide bomb strikes in Kherson Oblast may present an opportunity for Ukrainian forces to operate more freely in near rear areas in west bank Kherson Oblast and establish a safer position on the east (left) bank from which to conduct future operations if the Ukrainian high command so chose. Russian forces reportedly use glide bomb strikes so that Russian aircraft can remain 50 to 70 kilometers behind the line of combat engagement, and the decreased Russian use of glide bombs suggests that Russian forces are concerned about Ukrainian air defense capabilities following recent losses.[8] Ukrainian Ground Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo stated on December 23 that Russian forces also reduced their use of aviation and increased their use of strike drones in the Kupyansk and Bakhmut directions.[9] Ihnat also stated on December 24 that Ukrainian forces can deploy air defense systems in any direction, not only in those where Russian forces suffered aircraft loses.[10] www.understandingwar.org/... x Ukraine’s Armed Forces successfully neutralized 28 out of 31 Shahed drones and two missiles during a Russian attack on Dec. 25, with two Russian military aircraft eliminated over the past 24 hours.https://t.co/F89ZfnWsjQ — The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) December 25, 2023

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed Russian troops had gained full control of the eastern Ukrainian town of Marinka in what would be their first major breakthrough since the capture of Bakhmut back in May. Ukrainian military spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun denied the Russian claims. “It’s not correct to talk about seizing Marinka,” he told national television. “Our forces are within the city.”

Five people were killed after Russian shelling of Ukraine’s southern city of Kherson and towns elsewhere in the region hit an apartment block and residential homes. Nine other people, including a 15-year-old, were wounded while gas and water supplies were partially cut off in the attacks.

killed after Russian shelling of Ukraine’s southern city of Kherson and towns elsewhere in the region hit an apartment block and residential homes. Nine other people, including a 15-year-old, were wounded while gas and water supplies were partially cut off in the attacks. Russian-installed authorities, meanwhile, said one person had been killed and six wounded in Ukrainian shelling of the Russian-occupied eastern town of Horlivka.

Ukraine said it shot down 28 of 31 drones launched by Russia overnight as well as two missiles mostly targeting the south of the country.

Russian and Ukrainian military officials both reported bringing down enemy aircraft in different areas of the 1,000km-long (621-mile) front line. Mykola Oleshchuk, the commander of Ukraine’s Air Force, said Ukrainian anti-aircraft units had hit a Russian Su-34 fighter bomber near the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Russia’s Defence Ministry, meanwhile, said its air defence systems shot down four Ukrainian military aircraft over the previous 24 hours.

Ukraine is proposing lowering the age of those who can be mobilised for combat duty from 27 to 25, according to the draft text of a new law on conscription.

Ukraine celebrated Christmas on December 25 for the first time in part of an ongoing effort to distance itself from Russian influence. Russia marks the holiday in January.

Ukraine received $1.34bn in funds from the World Bank. The money will be used to support non-security related financial and economic stability, Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance said.

$1.34bn in funds from the World Bank. The money will be used to support non-security related financial and economic stability, Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance said. Hundreds of supporters of Igor Girkin, a jailed former commander of Russian-backed fighters in Ukraine who is better known by his alias Igor Strelkov, rallied in Moscow to back his bid to stand for president. Girkin was a key leader of fighters in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and has criticised Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine for being “too kind”. He was detained in July.

Denis Manturov, the Russian deputy prime minister who oversees arms production, told the RIA news agency that Russia had the upper hand in weapons production over Western countries and intended to grow its arms industry. Manturov said that the volume of state defence orders in 2023 had doubled compared with the previous year, with production of “certain weapons” rising ten-fold. SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES

x 🚨 BREAKING: Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of the Air Force of Ukraine reports Russia's Black Sea Fleet Large Landing Ship Novocherkassk (BDK-46) has been SUNK at the Feodosia port in Crimea as a result of this night's strike.

Footage of this 112.5m long (369 ft) ship from 2020: https://t.co/JC43bdRZGc pic.twitter.com/i3e6pDTW5U — Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) December 26, 2023

x https://t.co/cFh7JJbimM

Timeline /from local witnesses/:

Initial detonation was heard at 2:49-2:50.

The fire started on the ship.



At 3:31 a larger explosion was heard that popped windows in the nearby homes.



Then serious ammo detonation started — Ukrainian Ministry of Accidental Russian Fires (@EPICGOPFAIL) December 26, 2023

New Russian history book for 11th graders says Trump lost the 2020 elections "as a result of obvious electoral fraud by the Democratic Party"...Marc Bennetts @marcbennetts1

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 25, 2023



■ Fewer combat engagements & settlements under artillery fire

■ Strikes on both sides below 7-day average

■ Great equipment losses including a Su-34 & Su-30 bringing the total of the week to 5 military jets

■ Casualties below average, 7-day… pic.twitter.com/2TeXceXJaR — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) December 25, 2023

The United States has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think. A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit. Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean. The Ukrainian military with Western support has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022 according to US intelligence sources, but the Russians have replaced those manpower losses and are ramping up their industrial base to make good their material losses at a rate much faster than their pre-war capacity had permitted.[1] www.understandingwar.org/... A victorious Russian army at the end of this war will be combat experienced and considerably larger than the pre-2022 Russian land forces. The Russian economy will gradually recover as sanctions inevitably erode and Moscow develops ways to circumvent or mitigate those that remain. Over time it will replace its equipment and rebuild its coherence, drawing on a wealth of hard-won experience fighting mechanized warfare. It will bring with it advanced air defense systems that only American stealth aircraft—badly needed to deter and confront China—can reliably penetrate. Russia can pose a major conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s in a timeframe set to a considerable extent by how much the Kremlin invests in its military. Since Moscow has already committed to an ambitious post-war military expansion program the US cannot be confident that the timeframe will be very long.[2] www.understandingwar.org/...

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