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"The Fed's Key Inflation Rate just fell below 2%" [1]

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Date: 2023-12-22

The economy is humming along. The unemployment rate is 3.7% and the economy added 199,000 jobs. We appear to be on track for a soft landing .



Inflation finally dips below 3 percent as U.S. economy nears ‘soft landing’ . A key annual inflation metric fell below 3 percent in November, the latest sign that the U.S. is coming in for a rare soft landing from high price growth without a recession. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index dropped to 2.6 percent year-over-year in November, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.





Core pce inflation has run at a rate of 1.9% annualized over the last six months



The Fed's Key Inflation Rate Just Fell Below 2%; S&P 500 Rises The Federal Reserve's primary inflation rate, the core PCE price index, showed that core price pressures continued to cool more than expected in November. Core inflation has run at just a 1.9% annualized rate over the past six months, Commerce Department data show. S&P 500 futures pointed higher.











The gross domestic product grew at a rate of 5.2% over the third quarter of 2023 .





The US economy is doing well and the global economy is recovering as well



The U.S. economy in 2023 outperformed expectations along three key dimensions: growing economic output, labor market resilience, and slowing inflation. The Biden Administration’s focus on supply-side measures via the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act is working to expand our productive capacity to create space for faster growth without stoking inflation. We offer three key conclusions: The United States has seen a particularly strong GDP recovery and is on track this year to reach the level that would have been predicted by the pre-pandemic trend.

Global labor markets continue to strengthen, and the United States has been especially resilient.

U.S. inflation has cooled sooner and more quickly than in other advanced economies.



Name the last time an incumbent president ran for reelection and did not win the presidential nomination of his political party. President Biden WILL be the nominee of the Democratic Party. That's just a fact.



It won't hurt Joe Biden if he's not reelected. It will hurt all marginalized communities and young people and Muslims and people of color and women and finally everybody who prefers a democracy to an autocracy. More than 3/4 of democrats approve of the job President Biden has been doing as president . That's despite irrational criticism from those who have confused his office with that of the prime minister of Israel. He's also not Congress which on Earth 1.0 has the power of the purse. Aid for Ukraine, Israel, and the border will be a complicated negotiation. When Israel was attacked by a terrorist organization, President Biden, in recognition of a millennium of anti-semitism, supported Israel. He has consistently warned Israel against taking actions that would lead to mass Palestinian civilian casualties. Yet, Hamas has made it virtually impossible to avoid Palestinian civilian casualties by using them as human shields. Demanding that Israel not respond militarily to the terrorist attack is a non-starter. Israel is not going to accept that. A speech condemning Israel and Bibi Netanyahu might make certain people here feel good. Would it help the Palestinians? No. That would be for the press and domestic political consumption. The way he influences Prime Minister Netanyahu is by talking to him. When President Biden gives a speech condemning Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu, then that's not good news. It means that he no longer thinks he can influence Prime Minister Netanyahu in a way that helps the Palestinians. At that point, Bibi Netanyahu ignores what the US has to say. Unfortunately, we appear to be approaching that point. We do not control the House of Representatives. If we want aid for Ukraine to go through, then we are going to have to make an agreement with the Republicans in Congress on aid for Israel and the border. We already are going to have to reject their poison pill border policy demands. I doubt that we have enough room to eliminate all aid to Israel because that's going to be a requirement to get Ukraine aid passed along with some negotiated agreement on the border. Right now, I am not big on supporting Israel with aid either based upon their actions. But I don't see a choice.





55% of Americans support Israel's actions in Gaza



The Wall Street Journal poll found that 55 percent of respondents said they believe Israel is taking the necessary action to defend itself and prevent Hamas from launching another attack. Twenty-five percent said that Israel’s actions are disproportionate and are going too far, while 20 percent said they did not know.





50% of Americans support Israel's actions in Gaza



Americans Back Israel's Military Action in Gaza by 50% to 45% STORY HIGHLIGHTS Half of adults approve of Israel’s military action in Gaza; 45% disapprove

71% of Republicans, 36% of Democrats approve

Four in 10 say U.S. sending too little humanitarian aid to the Palestinians



What we read here isn't necessarily the views of the majority of the country. And it's tricky politically. Do you oppose a majority of voters? When you're going to win the primary of your own political party? When if you lose reelection, then the United States loses its democracy?



President Joe Biden absolutely cannot beat the Democratic Party Jesus in a poll. He would defeat any actual named candidate. There is no one major elected democrat who unites the entire political party more than the incumbent president. For any such candidate to try to defeat President Biden, they will have to go all scorched earth and carpet bomb President Biden on age, inflation, and the bullshit cognitive deficit. And when they lose the primary as they in all probability would, if any damage to President Biden's candidacy could be in any way reasonably attributed to them, they would have ended our democracy and their own political future with the Democratic Party. These people are smarter than to attempt political suicide.



Several events will take place that will alter the polls. Eventually, all democrats will understand that President Biden will be the nominee. The voters will gradually understand and acknowledge the truth about the economy. More news about Trump's prosecution will come out. The federal indictment of Donald Trump for the attempted coup is designed for speed and should yield a verdict before the conventions and that verdict is likely to be guilty. The two political parties will have their conventions. Almost all Democrats and some independents and a few Republicans will understand that the numbers show that the economy is very good. As poll respondents indicate that their own personal economy is good, then it's mostly dishonesty that produces the Earth 2.0 results. In addition, more progressive and liberal voters will see that under the Biden administration a lot of good legislation has passed. Finally, voters will see that not only is President Biden the Democratic Party's nominee for president, but that Donald Trump will be the Republican Party's nominee for president. Therefore, current polls are unreliable.





President Obama standing with democrats, independents, and republicans is less than stellar



Among Democrats, his approval rating was 72 percent, while with independents, it was at 34 percent and with Republicans, it was 13 percent.





President Obama is looking at the lowest poll numbers in his presidency



By Mark Murray When Barack Obama unveils his jobs and economic plan to a joint session of Congress on Thursday, he'll do so at the lowest point of his presidency, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. After the bruising debt-ceiling fight — as well as Standard & Poor's subsequent downgrade of the nation's credit rating — Obama's job approval rating has sunk to a low of 44 percent, a 3-point drop since July. His handling of the economy stands at a low of 37 percent. And only 19 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction, the lowest mark for this president.







President Obama trails in a dozen swing states as of December 13 poll



In a dozen key swing statesacross the country, President Barack Obama is trailing Mitt Romney by 5 percentage points and Newt Gingrich by 3 percentage points, according to a new Gallup/USA Today poll on Tuesday.





"Harvard poll predicts Obama loss"



Job approval ratings continue to slide for Obama as well as Democrats and Republicans in Congress. Obama’s job performance rating among America’s 18- to 29-year-olds is currently at the lowest point since IOP polling of the Obama administration began in the fall of 2009. Forty-six percent of millennials approve of the job Obama is doing as president — a decrease of 9 percentage points from February 2011 IOP polling (55 percent) — with 51 percent saying they disapprove. Obama’s job approval has also fallen among college students from 60 percent in February to 48 percent today.



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I don't believe that the poll below means anything at all for the reasons I already wrote about above.



Recent Biden poll



Biden leads Trump by four points among likely voters in the seven states with the most closely contested results in 2020: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Michigan, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.





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