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Ukraine Invasion Day 667: population substitution is not humanitarianism [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-12-21
Russia has incurred direct military costs, GDP losses, and financial capital destruction as a result of its invasion of Ukraine.
The failure of Russian operations in Ukraine to achieve Russian President Vladimir Putin’s maximalist objectives thus far is not a permanent condition, and only continued Western support for Ukraine can ensure that Putin’s maximalist objectives remain unattainable. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on December 20 that Putin has already failed to achieve his principal objective of “erasing [Ukraine] from the map and subsuming it into Russia.”[1] The Russian military has failed to force Ukraine to capitulate to Putin’s maximalist objectives to replace the Ukrainian government with one acceptable to the Kremlin under veiled calls for “denazification,” to destroy Ukraine’s ability to resist any future Kremlin demands under calls for “demilitarization,” and to prohibit Ukraine’s right to choose its own diplomatic and military partnerships under calls for Ukrainian “neutrality.”[2] The Kremlin has also pursued additional undefined objectives for territorial conquest in Ukraine that have resulted in the illegal annexation of parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and the occupation of small parts of Kharkiv and Mykolaiv oblasts, none of which represents either a departure from or the full accomplishment of Putin’s initial “principal” objectives.[3]
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 21, 2023 ■ Strikes on both sides well above 7-day average, more combat engagements, fewer settlements under artillery fire ■ Casualties slightly above average, total casualties surpass the 350,000 mark ■ High landbased equipment losses, 7-day average… pic.twitter.com/iLZY15EwtH
ISW has assessed that the collapse of Western aid would likely lead to the eventual collapse of Ukraine’s ability to hold off the Russian military and that the current positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate because the current instable balance could readily be tipped in either direction by decisions made in the West .[5] Continued Western security assistance that empowers Ukrainian forces to repel ongoing and future Russian offensive efforts and to liberate more Ukrainian territory is the only course of action at this time that can make the Russian failure to achieve Putin’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine permanent.
⚡️Russia has fired 7,400 missiles at Ukraine since February 2022. Russia has fired 7,400 missiles at Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale war in February 2022, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat told Hromadske.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued positional engagements northeast of Kupyansk on December 21. Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that fighting continued in the Kupyansk direction near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, and Stelmakhivka.[44] Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed nine Russian tanks and 19 armored vehicles in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions on December 20.[45]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces reportedly advanced northwest of Bakhmut near Spirne, but there are no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area.[48]
Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance near Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on December 20 indicates that Russian forces advanced along a section of the railway line east of Klishchiivka (southwest of Bakhmut).[49] ... Ukrainian and Russian forces stated that fighting occurred on Bakhmut’s northwestern and southwestern flanks near Andriivka, Klishchiivka, Khromove, Ivanivske, and Bohdanivka, and northwest of Horlivka (south of Bakhmut).[51] Elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division reportedly continue to operate northwest of Bakhmut, and elements of the Russian 58th Spetsnaz Battalion (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps) reportedly continue to operate near Bakhmut.[52]
Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance near Avdiivka. Geolocated footage published on December 19 indicates that Russian forces advanced northwest of Krasnohorivka on Avdiivka’s northwestern flank.[53] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces withdrew from positions in the Avdiivka Coke Plant in northwestern Avdiivka.[54] Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces advanced near Stepove and advanced up to 200 meters towards Novokalynove (northwest of Avdiivka).[55] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these Russian claims, however. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian forces attacked northwest, east, southeast, and southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, and Nevelske and near the Avdiivka Coke Plant.[56] Elements of the Russian 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR Army Corps) are reportedly operating in the Avdiivka direction.[57] The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Avdiivka direction stated that there is room for maneuver near Avdiivka, unlike in the Zaporizhia direction where there are only narrow cleared corridors through minefields, and that Russian forces are continuing waves of both infantry and mechanized assaults.[58]
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