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North Carolina State Senate: 2024 Ratings [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-12-21

Up next in my state legislative summary posts (for 2024 ratings) is the North Carolina State Senate. A chart with my ratings for all the competitive seats can be found at the top of the post. As per usual, I have excluded non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”). It should be noted that the candidate filing deadline was last Monday.

While there aren’t any rating changes, there are a few candidate updates.

Most importantly, SD 18 is now open, as incumbent Democrat Mary Wills Bode did not file for reelection. The Democratic candidate for the seat is Terence Everitt, who currently represents an overlapping house district. In addition, there is a Libertarian candidate for the seat, Brad Hessel, who previously ran in 2016 and 2018.

SD 13 also has a Libertarian challenger, Susan Hogarth, who was the (Libertarian) candidate for SD 17 (which had considerable overlap with SD 13) back in 2016.

This probably isn’t necessary to note, but the districts are classified as Democratic-held or Republican-held in a way to preserve the current partisan balance of the chamber and with respect to incumbency (all districts with Dem incumbents are Dem-held and likewise for Republicans). Note that the 2024 NC districts generally use the same numbering system as those for the existing (2022) map. No Republican incumbents have been drawn into any Dem-held senate districts, and the only Democrat to be drawn into a GOP-held senate district isn’t running for reelection. Therefore, all the senate districts in the chamber that were Dem-held under the 2022 lines have remained classified as Dem-held for 2024 and likewise for Republican-held districts.

In my chart, SD 13 has the notation as “Open/Grafstein,” due to the somewhat unusual situation of the incumbent relocating to an entirely new area to run.

My overall assessment for the chamber is Safe Republican. Currently, the balance in the chamber is 30R – 20D, meaning that the Democrats need a net gain of five seats for control of the chamber if they win the Lieutenant Governor’s race (as LG serves as a tiebreaker) and a net gain of at least six seats otherwise. While winning every competitive seat (many of which favor the GOP) would give the Democrats a narrow majority (at 26D – 24R), with one competitive seat being unnecessary if they also win the LG race, this scenario seems unrealistic. However, if my ratings for any of the Republican-leaning districts are shifted leftward, I could see the chamber becoming Likely Republican.

With regards to the supermajority odds, my assessment is Lean Supermajority for the GOP. Currently, the Republicans have a bare three-fifths supermajority. Assuming both parties win all the seats they are favored in and Dems hold all three of the toss-ups (SD 13, SD 18, and SD 42), this would result in no net change. In order to break the supermajority, Democrats need to flip at least one Republican-leaning seat, with SD 11 and SD 7 being the most promising targets.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/21/2213012/-North-Carolina-State-Senate-2024-Ratings?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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