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North Carolina State Senate Districts (2024): SD 1, SD 4, SD 34 [1]

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Date: 2023-12-20

Today, I am looking at the final three competitive North Carolina senate districts: SD 1, SD 4, and SD 34.

North Carolina Senate District 1

NC SD 1 is located on the northeastern corner of the state, encompassing several counties and bordering both Virginia and the East Coast. Under the pre-2018 boundaries, SD 1 was a GOP-leaning district and continued to move away from the Democrats at the presidential level, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by between 12 and 13 points to supporting Donald Trump by larger margin of about 22.5 points in 2016. However, the district was historically friendlier to Democrats down-ballot, with Republican Bill Cook winning the open seat in 2012 by a razor-thin margin of less than 100 votes (against an incumbent Democrat) and winning reelection by a larger, but still fairly close margin of 7 points in 2014. The 2016 senate race was not competitive at all, though, as Cook was reelected by a little more than 18 points. The district became substantially bluer when it was redrawn in 2018, with Trump’s 2016 margin shrinking to between 12 and 13 points. The 2018 senate race was quite competitive, with Republican Bob Steinburg winning the open seat by between 6 and 7 points, though the 2020 senate race wasn’t as close, with Steinburg winning reelection by about 10.5 points. Still, it’s worth noting that Steinburg underperformed the top of the ticket, as Trump won the district by nearly 14 points in 2020 (which is slightly better than his 2016 margin). The 2022 redistricting made SD 1 considerably redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to a little more than 23 points. The district was left uncontested by Democrats in 2022, though Steinburg did lose the GOP primary to Norman Sanderson. However, the 2022 iteration of SD 3 also took in a quite bit of territory from SD 1. SD 3 was competitive at the presidential level, as it supported Joe Biden by between 3 and 4 points, though Republican Bobby Hanig managed to win the open seat in 2022 by about 5 points, presumably due to poor Dem turnout, as was the case with much of the region. For 2024, much of SD 3 has been restored back into SD 1, with Hanig being drawn into the district and Sanderson drawn out. Under the 2024 boundaries, SD 1 has become more competitive than previous iterations, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to just under 9 points, though unsurprisingly, the Democrats did worse here in 2022, with Democrat Cheri Beasley losing the district by a little more than 15 points in the U.S. Senate race. Hanig should be heavily favored, but the district does have the potential to be competitive, given its ancestral Democratic nature and that Trump won it by just single digits in 2020. I’m classifying SD 1 as Likely Republican. One Democrat is running for the seat: Susan Harman-Scott.

North Carolina Senate District 4

NC SD 4 is based in the eastern part of the state and encompasses all of Wilson, Greene, and Wayne counties, the latter of which is home to Goldsboro. Under the pre-2018 boundaries, SD 4 was a completely safe district for Democrats, having supported Barack Obama (in 2012) and Hillary Clinton by over 30 points. The district became slightly more Republican-leaning, but still reliably blue, when it was redrawn in 2018, with Clinton’s margin shrinking to around 19 points. The district did swing a few points to the right in 2020, though, with Biden carrying the district by between 14 and 15 points, underperforming Clinton by about 5 points, despite doing better statewide. Appointed Democrat incumbent Milton Fitch Jr. won the seat by between 17 and 18 points in 2018 and nearly matched Biden’s margin in his 2020 reelection. The 2022 redistricting made SD 4 substantially redder, as Trump would have now carried the district in 2020 by 6 points. Republican Buck Newton, who had previously represented an overlapping senate district, managed to flip the seat in 2022, as he defeated Fitch by a large 15-point margin. Beasley did a few points better than Fitch in 2022, as she lost the district by just under 13 points. Newton should be heavily favored, especially given the overall trends, but the district still warrants notice, given the reasonably close presidential result and that Black turnout should be higher this cycle. I’m classifying SD 4 as Likely Republican. Raymond Smith Jr., who previously represented an overlapping state house district, is the Democratic challenger.

North Carolina Senate District 34

NC SD 34 contains most of Cabarrus County, located just northeast of Charlotte, including the community of Concord. Both the 2022 and 2024 iterations of SD 34 roughly correspond with the pre-2022 iteration of SD 36, which was a solidly Republican district that swung heavily to the left at the presidential level in 2020, as it supported Trump by a little less than 12 points, a sharp reduction from his 22-point victory in 2016. (Interestingly, the district barely moved from 2012 to 2016, having also supported Romney by around 22 points.) Republican Paul Newton easily held SD 36 in 2016, winning the open race by just over 25 points, though the 2018 and 2020 senate races were quite a bit closer, with Newton winning reelection by a little more than 13 points and by between 15 and 16 points, respectively. The 2022 iteration of SD 34 was a few points bluer than SD 36, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to about 8 points. The 2022 senate race for SD 34 was not particularly impressive for Dems, though, with Newton winning reelection by just under 14 points, similar to his previous reelections, despite facing less favorable boundaries. The seat has been redrawn again for 2024 to be slightly redder (but not as red as SD 36 was), with Trump’s 2020 margin increasing by about 2 points. Interestingly, Democrat Cal Cunningham (in the 2020 U.S. Senate race) only ran a percentage point behind Biden in the new district and actually outran Beasley’s 2022 margin by about 2 points, despite his Republican opponent incumbent Thom Tillis being based in neighboring Mecklenburg County. (Note that in Mecklenburg, Cunningham underperformed Biden by quite a bit more than Beasley did.) Newton should be fairly safe, but the district is worth keeping an eye on, given the overall favorable trends for Dems. I’m classifying SD 34 as Likely Republican. Democrat Kim Sexton-Lewter is running for the seat this cycle, as is Libertarian Thomas B. Hill.

Thanks to DRA (for all statewide/presidential results of the 2024 districts), cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the 2022 districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for remaining presidential results).

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