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Renewable Tuesday [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-12-19

The COP28 final declaration last week was disappointing. It doesn’t say to phase out fossil fuels, but it did name them for the first time. And we got a plan to triple renewables. The market realities continue to astonish those who don’t or won’t look. And we got a plan to triple renewables worldwide, and another to help the poorest countries suffering the worst climate damage, and yet another to cut methane leaks severely.

Meanwhile, in the real world,

Renew Economy: AEMO’s jaw dropping prediction for coal power – all but gone from the grid in a decade

The Australian Energy Market Operator is predicting that the country’s remaining coal fired generators are likely to close much quicker than expected, saying they are becoming less reliable, more difficult to maintain and less able to compete with the growing share of renewables. AEMO’s draft 2024 Integrated System Plan, the latest version of its 30-year planning blueprint, suggests coal fired generation will be gone from Queensland and Victoria within a decade – by 2033/34 – and that the last coal unit will close in NSW by 2038.

Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA): U.S. on track to close half of coal capacity by 2026

Roughly 40%, about 80.6 gigawatts, of remaining U.S. coal-fired capacity is set to close by the end of 2030. Fewer than 200 large-scale coal-fired units (50 MW or more) remain without announced retirement dates, and 118 of those are at least 40 years old.

Now we’re cooking with magnets (induction cooktops and iron or steel pots and pans).

And looky here.

x As of today, 1,600 big funds--with $40 trillion in assets--have divested from fossil fuel.

So many people have worked so hard to make this happen, and all of them were vital! pic.twitter.com/wDetvZk69t — Bill McKibben (@billmckibben) December 15, 2023

x “Whether you like it or not, fossil fuel phase out is inevitable.”



– @antonioguterres as #COP28 Climate Conference concluded this week in Dubai. https://t.co/sCMx8ywkUo pic.twitter.com/QQkeOxJXYl — United Nations (@UN) December 16, 2023

BloombergNEF: Global Low-Carbon Energy Technology Investment Surges Past $1 Trillion for the First Time

Defying supply chain disruptions and macroeconomic headwinds, 2022 energy transition investment jumped 31% to draw level with fossil fuels. Only nuclear power investment did not set a record, staying broadly flat. Renewable energy, which includes wind, solar, biofuels and other renewables, remained the largest sector in investment terms, achieving a new record of $495 billion committed in 2022, up 17% from the year prior. However, electrified transport, which includes spending on electric vehicles and associated infrastructure, came close to overtaking renewables, with $466 billion spent in 2022 – an impressive 54% increase year-on-year.

Utility Dive: How America’s grid modernization stakes echo Eisenhower’s interstate revolution

More than 70% of the nation’s transmission and power transformers are over 25 years old and, in many cases, have exceeded their original design life. Additionally, the system must expand 60% by 2030 and triple in size by mid-century to accommodate projected U.S. energy demand. And experts have warned that the existing system is inadequate to meet the nation’s needs in the modern threat environment. We are being outpaced by other nations across the globe in investing in these types of technologies. As an example, European grid operators alone have deployed about 50 GW of advanced HVDC technology and have planned another 130 GW over the next 10 years. Today, North America accounts for only 3% of all advanced HVDC systems in operation worldwide, according to Brattle and DNV. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission must finalize a strong regional transmission planning rule and take up further consideration of an interregional transfer capacity standard. The U.S. Department of Energy should also finalize its process for designating National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors. And Congress needs to pass an investment tax credit to spur new long-distance lines.

Throughout the 2010s, batteries got cheaper and cheaper, cheering the businesses and climate activists that want to convert vehicles to electric and bolster renewable power plants with flexible energy storage. That march of progress slipped on the banana peel of Covid supply-chain disruptions: Price declines slowed in 2021, and prices went up in 2022, per the analysts at BloombergNEF. That’s the wrong direction for a technology that’s supposed to benefit from learning curves and increased scale. But the Covid years were a strange time, and the global lithium-ion battery industry seems to have shaken off the malaise. Global pack prices fell 14% this year to a record low of $139 per kilowatt-hour, according to BNEF. Lithium prices softened, components got cheaper, and massive new battery factories opened up. Demand for batteries grew an astonishing 53% this year, but even that fell short of some manufacturers’ expectations, which pushed prices down further.

Meteor Blades

Earth Matters: 44,000 species at risk of extinction; denier Myron Ebell quits; a few takes on COP28 by Meteor Blades

Ebell has long been one of the most prominent climate science deniers and a well-paid disinformation specialist for the climate-change-is-a-hoax crowd. He has hope for conservative energy advocacy after his retirement. He wants his colleagues to focus on getting the Senate to reject the Paris Agreement, having Congress repeal clean energy subsidies and stopping any public funding for transmission lines to bring renewable electricity to cities.

Weekly Spotlight on climate and eco-diaries (12/17/23). Oil profiteering; John Oliver on railroads by Meteor Blades

That includes

John Oliver uses Thomas the Tank Engine to show why America's freight rail is a disaster in waiting by xaxnar

I have in mind a series to explore this in depth. Possible topics include “The Siren Song of High Speed Rail”, “Rail Trails: Waste or Needless Indulgence?”, “Why the best airline deal is overnight by train”,"How rails can save the Whales”, “Should transit be free?” and so on.

Oh, yeah.

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