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Major Poll Shows President Gaining Momentum In Head 2 Head Vs. You Know Who. [1]
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Date: 2023-12-19
From time to time I will write about polling, and this one is especially significant. Siena may be the one outfit that is still, relatively speaking, getting sufficient response to be accurate. They were by far the best in Arizona in 2022, and are “A” rated by 538.
The word for this poll is “disaffected.” The numbers with non-whites are slightly below average for the President, although Republicans have won in the mid-teens with black voters as recently as 2004. The Hispanic numbers are concerning but not surprising, however those weaknesses are primarily concentrated in Texas and Florida. Of course, this is just a single poll, and is not meant to be representative of what the electorate will be next November, but a snapshot of today.
Still, recent trends for the President have improved, along with most every other statistical measure.
What really stands out here is who the electorate in this poll is comprised of. Excluding did not vote, the President leads by 10, 52-42 in recalled 2020 vote. This means that the Republican base is not enthused at the moment. Given who their likely candidate is, that is not expected to change.
From a turnout perspective, I expect this next cycle to more closely match 1996. Senator Dole did not excite Republicans, and President Clinton was sailing on a strong economy.
While you will read articles, ham-handed and anecdotal, about how the President is losing support with youth, the internals here are not great, either, at only 47-44, for the President. This is mostly due to disapproval with the Israel-Palestine conflict. However, this is offset by his strength with seniors, whom he leads by eleven, at 52-41.
Perhaps owing to generational philosophy, not only does the President lead with this group overall, but they are the base of his strongest approval on his handling of the conflict itself.
As this age cohort is much more likely to vote come election time, the President is in a stronger position with likely voters than any Democrat in decades.
Overall, it is clear where this is going. It is far easier to win back support, than to realign support, and most reliable data is showing that 2024 is not the disaster so many in the media project. Instead a competent and dedicated campaign apparatus should be projected to win a comfortable re-election.
It will take hard work, of course, but by Spring the race should be consistently showing the President by mid single-digit margins.
-ROC
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Love,
ROC
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