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Ukraine Invasion Day 662: Putin the Merry Revanchist [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-12-16

In the past week, Russia has attacked Ukraine with 130 Shahed Kamikaze Drones, of which 122 were shot down.

The US helping Ukraine win the war is much cheaper than to send troops to defend Europe from a potential Russian invasion.

Ukrainian forces continue operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast amid reported difficult conditions in the area as part of an apparent effort to set conditions for future Ukrainian operations and the resettlement of west (right) bank Kherson Oblast. The New York Times published a series of interviews with Ukrainian military personnel operating on the east bank and along the Dnipro River on December 16, wherein the commander of a Ukrainian regiment stated that Ukrainian drone strikes have heavily suppressed Russian long-range artillery on the east bank in recent months.[1] Ukrainian officials previously stated that Ukrainian forces established several bridgeheads on the east bank as part of an operation that aims to push Russian forces out of artillery range of west bank Kherson Oblast.[2] The reported suppression of long-range Russian artillery may allow Ukrainian forces to operate more freely in near rear areas in west bank Kherson Oblast, which may partially explain intensified Russian glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian targets on the west bank.[3] The much more abundant 152mm tube artillery systems that Russian forces widely operate in Ukraine have an approximate range of 25km, although Russian forces are unlikely to deploy these systems to immediate frontline areas due to the threat of Ukrainian counterbattery fire. www.understandingwar.org/...

x G7 moves closer to seizing Russian assets for Ukraine https://t.co/zjAunUakaU via @ft — Michael McFaul (@McFaul) December 16, 2023

Jake Sullivan's remarks on Russia (see video below): analytical, confident, but in my view wrong in important ways because of incorrect emotional and cultural biases. It seems to me a misguided case of projection to imagine that the Putin regime is so bothered about Russian conditions. Of course it's not nothing to have lost over 300,000 men, but we know from available data that: 1: the regime doesn't care 2: a big part of the population = obedient cattle 3: most unpleasant to the Western mind: many Russians up and down the social ladder *are* imperial-nationalists to varying degrees 4: liberal minority is afraid, many have fled, they have neither the stomach nor the skills to rebel 5: Putin regime strongly biases military recruitment towards ethnic minorities, poor provinces, convicted criminals 6: the war lasting longer is also an enabler for Putin. Regardless of whether this was the initial plan, he couldn't go for a full national-socialist war economy in one day. But the more time goes by, the more he can. 7: the war in Ukraine is the gamble of the century for Russia, and their leaders know it. They will not give up unless brutally forced to do so. 8: Russia has a very long history of putting up with absurd and horrid domestic conditions without triggering a political crisis - potentially for decades 9: nor is any of this unique to Russia - fascist regimes of the past also held out and fought for considerably longer than their Western contemporaries were hoping they would. It was **hard** to defeat Nazi Germany. It was **hard** to defeat Tojo's Japan. But in the end, that's the only thing that stopped them: extremely brutal and unrelenting military force until they were no longer *able* to fight. x Sullivan's remarks on Russia (see video below): analytical, confident, but in my view wrong in important ways because of incorrect emotional and cultural biases. It seems to me a misguided case of projection to imagine that the Putin regime is so bothered about Russian… https://t.co/f7ruSOqsq3 — Edward Hunter Christie (@EHunterChristie) December 16, 2023

Key Takeaways: Ukrainian forces continue operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast amid reported difficult conditions in the area as part of an apparent effort to set conditions for future Ukrainian operations and the resettlement of west (right) bank Kherson Oblast.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s supporters formally nominated him as an independent candidate for the 2024 presidential elections on December 16, further solidifying Putin’s image as a figure above the Russian political system.

Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Dmitri Polyanskiy more clearly defined recent statements from high-ranking Russian officials that align with ISW’s long-standing assessment that Russia is unwilling to negotiate with Ukraine in good faith.

Russian forces launched another series of Shahed-136/131 drone strikes across Ukraine overnight on December 15 to 16.

The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 15 that the G7 may consider using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine.

Russian actors continue information operations aimed at discrediting and dividing Ukraine’s military and political leadership, specifically Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

A Russian “Storm-Z” assault unit instructor implied that Russian President Vladimir Putin lied about the unregulated status of private military companies (PMCs) during his “Direct Line” forum on December 14 given the state’s significant administrative control over PMCs and other irregular formations.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 16 and advanced in some areas.

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russia will have at least ten Project 22350 Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates in an unspecified time period.

Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko and the Ukrainian Telegram channel Mariupol Resistance stated on December 16 that Ukrainian partisans recently blew up the car of the commander of an unspecified Russian unit from the North Caucasus in occupied Mariupol. www.understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 16, 2023



■ Reported strikes: 🇺🇦 up between days, 🇷🇺 considerably down

■ Combat engagements slightly above 7-day average, many settlements unfortunately under artillery fire

■ Estimated casualties slightly below average, equipment losses down between… pic.twitter.com/DajHh5PO8M — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) December 16, 2023

x Newly published archive video. Rare footage of a tank battle: a Ukrainian T-64BV fires at a Russian T-72B3. Bakhmut Front. pic.twitter.com/PGsi50AFiG — Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 16, 2023

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 16 but did not make confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled at least 11 Russian attacks near Synkivka (9km east of Kupyansk) and at least five attacks near Makiivka (23km northwest of Kreminna) and east of Terny (15km west of Kreminna) and Yampolivka (17km west of Kreminna).[37] A ... The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kupyansk direction stated on December 16 that Russian forces began using more effective unspecified loitering munitions instead of Lancet drones in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.[39] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bakhmut near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) on December 16.[42] Russian forces conducted localized offensive operations near Bakhmut on December 16 and recently made a confirmed advance. Geolocated footage published on December 16 indicates that Russian forces advanced north of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut).[43] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[44] ... The Russian MoD reported that elements of the Russian 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Northern Fleet) are operating in the Bakhmut direction and that elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division are operating north of Bakhmut.[47] Chechen Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that elements of the Akhmat Spetsnaz “Shustry” detachment are operating on the outskirts of Klishchiivka.[48] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka on December 16 and recently made a confirmed advance. Geolocated footage published on December 15 indicates that Russian forces advanced to the western outskirts of the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka.[49] .. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces marginally advanced near Berdychi (5km northwest of Avdiivka).[52] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked east of Novobakhmutivka (9km northwest of Avdiivka), Stepove, and Avdiivka and south of Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (10km southwest of Avdiivka).[53] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... The Ukrainian commander also reportedly stated that Ukrainian operations on the east bank of the Dnipro River currently aim to draw Russian forces to the area and inflict heavy losses upon them.[5] The Ukrainian commander reportedly added that the effort to draw Russian forces to the area has been successful as the Russian command transferred unspecified Russian Airborne (VDV) elements from western Zaporizhia Oblast to east bank Kherson Oblast.[6] Russian officials have acknowledged that elements of the 7th VDV Division are operating in Kherson Oblast, and it is possible that limited elements of the 7th VDV division operating near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast (the 247th VDV Regiment, the 108th VDV Regiment, and the 56th VDV Regiment) have redeployed to defend on the east bank, although ISW has observed elements of those units still committed to defending and counterattacking in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[7] Ukrainian military officials previously reported that Ukrainian operations on the east bank between October 17 and November 17 killed 1,126 Russian personnel and wounded 2,217, suggesting that Ukrainian forces may be inflicting significant losses on Russian forces in the area.[8] Russian President Vladimir Putin similarly described Russian defensive operations on the east bank as an intentional attempt to lure and attrit Ukrainian forces, however, and ISW cannot currently assess if there is an asymmetrical attrition gradient in this sector of the front. The degradation of defending Russian forces on east bank Kherson Oblast may be an immediate operational objective, but one that can facilitate the wider stated operational objective of pushing Russian forces out of artillery range of west bank Kherson Oblast. www.understandingwar.org/...

x Tune in for the back story to the fight over Ukraine aid: How the American Right Came to Love Putin | The New Yorker https://t.co/lJ5Ul5WxbV — Jane Mayer (@JaneMayerNYer) December 16, 2023

losses since July

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