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Ukraine Invasion Day 661: “There is a Path to Victory" [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-12-15

"US Congress approves bill barring any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO"

German outlet BILD stated on December 14 that unspecified intelligence findings and sources indicate that Russia plans to occupy Ukrainian territory beyond the four (illegally) annexed Ukrainian oblasts throughout 2024-2026.

BILD stated that Russia plans to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and up to the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast by the end of 2024.[1] These reported goals are in line with ongoing localized Russian offensive operations in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv oblasts. Russia also reportedly plans to take large parts of Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts, including Kharkiv City if possible, in 2025 and 2026. BILD reported that an insider source stated that Russia plans to occupy large parts of eastern Ukraine located east of the Dnipro River within the next 36 months. Russia is reportedly planning to hold the current front line in Kherson Oblast along the Dnipro River and is only concerned about preventing Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine from advancing towards occupied Crimea. BILD stated that Russia’s plans are based on mobilizing Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB), suffering annual casualties of around 100,000 military personnel in attritional offensive operations, and benefiting from the possible election of a US president in 2024 who dramatically reduces or stops military support to Ukraine. BILD reported that a source familiar with the intelligence findings stated that the Kremlin plans to rely on “sham negotiations” while continuing to conduct offensive operations similar to the way in which Russia negotiated the Second Minsk agreement in 2015 while the Russian military continued to occupy additional Ukrainian settlements. BILD previously published largely accurate intelligence findings about Russia’s plans for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in December 2021 which assessed that Russia would attack Ukraine from the south from Crimea, from Russian-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine, and from the north in late January or early February 2022, although the Russian invasion as executed did not perfectly align with BILD’s reporting.[2] understandingwar.org/...

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 14 to 15. Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed 14 Shahed-131/136 drones, an S-300 missile, and a Kh-59 missile.[16] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched three Kinzhal missiles in the direction of Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast and Starokostyantyniv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast on December 14 and that Ukrainian forces destroyed one Kinzhal over Kyiv Oblast.[17] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces struck targets in Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kyiv, and Odesa oblasts on the night of December 14 to 15.[18] understandingwar.org/...

Key Takeaways: German outlet BILD stated on December 14 that unspecified intelligence findings and sources indicate that Russia plans to occupy Ukrainian territory beyond the four (illegally) annexed Ukrainian oblasts throughout 2024-2026.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threateningly urged Ukraine to negotiate with Russia sooner rather than later in framing consistent with the ISW assessment that Russia intends to achieve its maximalist objectives in Ukraine through military means.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba published an op-ed entitled “There is a Path to Victory in Ukraine” on December 15, wherein he argues that Ukrainian military objectives remain feasible despite increasingly pessimistic discussions in the West.

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 14 to 15.

Finnish authorities closed Finland’s border checkpoints with Russia again on December 15 amid continued Russian hybrid warfare efforts to orchestrate an artificial migrant crisis.

Germany announced new military and humanitarian aid packages to Ukraine on December 14.

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kupyansk, northeast and near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made confirmed advances in several areas.

Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 14 that “Grom” special units (elite anti-drug special units of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs [MVD]) will fully transition to being subordinated to Rosgvardia in early 2024.

Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted Russia’s intention to build high-speed railways in occupied Ukraine, likely hours after Ukrainian partisans damaged a key railway line in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 15, 2023



■ Fewer strikes on both sides: 🇺🇦 strikes at 7-day average, 🇷🇺 strikes above it

■ Fewer combat engagements but well above average, settlements under artillery fire unchanged

■ Casualties above average & most landbased equipment losses in more… pic.twitter.com/dy2KKv2afw — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) December 15, 2023

There are around 450,000 Russian troops deployed in Ukraine, rather than 617,000 as Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed, the spokesperson of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), Andrii Yusov, said on Dec. 15. During his first major press conference since the start of the full-scale invasion, Putin flaunted Russia's alleged military successes and made claims about the number of Russian troops stationed in Ukraine. [...] There are now more than 450,000 Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, according to the military intelligence spokesperson. The only way that Putin's numbers would be realistic is if they included killed soldiers, he added. "Every time he (Putin) opened his mouth there, he lied," Yusov added. A U.S. intelligence report cited by Reuters on Dec. 12 said that Russia lost the vast majority of its original invasion force. According to the report, Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine with 360,000 personnel. By now, 87% have reportedly been killed or injured. kyivindependent.com/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kupyansk on December 15 and recently made a confirmed advance. Geolocated footage published on December 14 indicates that Russian forces advanced in northern Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk).[26] ... Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 25th Motorized Rifle Brigade (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Western Military District [WMD]), with support from elements of the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade (6th CAA, WMD) and 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment (2nd Motorized Rifle Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, WMD), pushed Ukrainian forces out of positions north of Synkivka and unsuccessfully attacked east of the settlement.[28] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka.[29] A Kremlin milblogger and Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov stated that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful mechanized assault near Synkivka.[30] understandingwar.org/... Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka on December 15 and recently advanced. Geolocated footage published on December 15 indicates that Russian forces advanced near Stepove (3km north of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).[43] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near the railway line north of Stepove and recently captured positions in a forest area north of Stepove, in the settlement, and southwest of the settlement.[44] ... (15km northwest of Avdiivka) and the Avdiivka industrial zone (just southwest of the settlement) on December 14.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 15 that Ukrainian forces repelled at least 45 Russian attacks east of Novobakhmutivka (13km northwest of Avdiivka), Stepove, and Avdiivka and south of Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske, and Nevelske (13km southwest of Avdiivka).[47] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that Russian forces are attacking with assault groups of up to 20 servicemen with armored vehicle support in the Tavriisk direction (Avdiivka through western Zaporizhia Oblast).[48] understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces reportedly continued ground attacks northeast of Bakhmut on December 15 but did not make any confirmed gains. Russian forces continued localized offensive operations near Bakhmut on December 15 and recently made confirmed gains. Geolocated footage published on December 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[35] ...[38] Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Vadim Astafyev claimed that Russian forces repelled six Ukrainian assaults near Klishchiivka and Pivnichne (21km southwest of Bakhmut).[39] understandingwar.org/... Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka on December 15 and recently advanced. Geolocated footage published on December 15 indicates that Russian forces advanced near Stepove (3km north of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).[43] ...A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces advanced near Ocheretyne (15km northwest of Avdiivka) and the Avdiivka industrial zone (just southwest of the settlement) on December 14.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 15 that Ukrainian forces repelled at least 45 Russian attacks east of Novobakhmutivka (13km northwest of Avdiivka), Stepove, and Avdiivka and south of Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske, and Nevelske (13km southwest of Avdiivka).[47] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that Russian forces are attacking with assault groups of up to 20 servicemen with armored vehicle support in the Tavriisk direction (Avdiivka through western Zaporizhia Oblast).[48] understandingwar.org/... understandingwar.org/... understandingwar.org/...

Czech T-72

x A Russian propaganda campaign involving thousands of fake accounts on TikTok spreading disinformation about the war in Ukraine has been uncovered by the BBC https://t.co/vjxQbf7vNV — Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) December 16, 2023

x Meanwhile in Russia: state TV host Olga Skabeeva rejoiced that Putin has fans and supporters in the U.S., but Biden has no "comparable levers of influence" within Russia. https://t.co/POBuVOk4Nz — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) December 15, 2023

x The logic of #Putin invasion of #Ukraine was that the nation had to be seized from the claws of @NATO . Now, #Finland has not only become a member of #NATO -- it is positioning top American military equipment along the Russian border region.

Your move, Vlad. https://t.co/CfmNtu6Xzu — Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 15, 2023

Gutless Obstructionists of Putin (GOP)

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