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North Carolina State Senate Districts (2024): SD 7, SD 24, SD 42 [1]

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Date: 2023-12-15

Today, I am looking at three more North Carolina senate districts: SD 7, SD 24, and SD 42, all of which are located in the southern part of the state.

North Carolina Senate District 7

NC SD 7 is located on the east coast and contains parts of New Hanover County, home to Wilmington. Both the 2022 and 2024 iterations of SD 7 correspond roughly to the pre-2022 iterations of SD 9. Under the pre-2020 boundaries, SD 9 had swung a few points to the left at the presidential level in 2016, with Donald Trump carrying it by about 5.5 points, after Mitt Romney had won it by just over 7 points four years prior. The 2016 senate race for SD 9 was not competitive, with Republican Michael Lee winning reelection by a little less than 15 points, a few points higher than his 2014 margin. However, Democrat Harper Petersen was able to flip the seat in 2018, as he very narrowly defeated Lee by a razor thin margin of less than a percentage point and with less than 49% of the total vote, as there was also a Libertarian on the ballot. SD 7 was redrawn to be a few points bluer in 2020, with Trump’s 2016 margin shrinking by 2 points. Despite the more favorable boundaries, Republican Michael Lee managed to flip the seat back in 2020, as he defeated Peterson by a narrow 1-point margin in a rematch. (Somewhat ironically, despite losing, Peterson’s share of the vote actually increased slightly in comparison to 2018, as there were no third-party candidates on the ballot.) Democrats were more successful at the top of the ticket in 2020, however, as Joe Biden carried the district by between 2 and 3 points. The 2022 iteration of SD 7 is a few points redder than SD 9’s 2020 iteration, with Biden’s margin shrinking to less than a percentage point in the former district. The 2022 senate race was for SD 7 was quite competitive, with Lee narrowly winning reelection by 2 points. The district has been redrawn again for 2024 to be more favorable to the GOP, with parts of Wilmington cracked out of the seat. In particular, Trump would have carried the new district by a little more than 5 points in 2020. Lee should be favored somewhat, but the district should be competitive, considering the previous senate races and generally favorable trends for Dems. In addition, it should be noted that Democrat Roy Cooper narrowly carried the new district by a percentage point in the 2020 Governor’s race, though given that he won statewide by a few points, this is likely a high bar for Dems. I’m classifying SD 7 as Lean Republican. Democrat David Hill is running for the seat, as is Libertarian John Evans.

North Carolina Senate District 24

NC SD 24 is located on the state’s border with South Carolina and contains the entirety of Robeson, Scotland, and Hoke counties. This region is notable for having a significant share of Lumbee Indians, who have demonstrated somewhat atypical voting patterns. (Native Americans make up over 25% of SD 24’s population.) SD 24 has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iteration of SD 13, which swung a good deal to the right at the presidential level in 2016, with Trump carrying the district by nearly 11 points in 2016 after Barack Obama had carried it by between 8 and 9 points four years prior. Most interestingly, SD 13 moved significantly further to the right in 2020, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to 20 points. It should be noted that Trump was the first ever sitting president to officially visit Robeson County (as part of a rally during the 2020 cycle), which along with his support for federal recognition of the tribe, likely helped his successes in the region. Democrat incumbent Michael P. Walters easily held onto the seat in 2012, winning by over 46 points, as did Democrat Jane Smith in 2014, when she won the open race by about 25.5 points. However, Republican Danny Earl Britt managed to flip the district in 2016, as he defeated Smith by 10 points, and easily won reelection by 25 points in 2018 and by a little more than 27 points in 2020. SD 13 is a lot bluer than SD 24, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to 8 points. In addition, it should also be pointed out that Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the district by nearly 2 points in 2016, as did Cooper by about 4 points in 2020, making it somewhat possible for Dems to win it. In 2022, Britt was easily reelected by between 16 and 17 points (though it doesn’t seem that his Dem opponent raised a whole lot of money), while Cheri Beasley ran about even with Biden in the U.S. Senate race, which contrasts with much of the rural areas in the northeastern part of the state where she underperformed him. Britt should be heavily favored, given his strengths as a candidate, but the district warrants notice, given its elastic nature. I’m classifying SD 24 as Likely Republican. Britt has at least one Democratic challenger, Kathy Batt.

North Carolina Senate District 42

NC SD 42 is located at the southeastern end of Mecklenburg County and contains suburbs of Charlotte, such as Matthews. The 2022 and 2024 iterations of SD 42 have considerable overlap with the 2020 iteration of SD 37, which was a Democratic-leaning district that had become even bluer in recent years, having supported Clinton by between 12 and 13 points and Biden by a considerably larger margin of nearly 21 points. Democrat Jeff Jackson underperformed Biden by several points in his 2020 senate race for SD 37, winning reelection by between 13 and 14 points, though this is still a comfortable margin. The 2022 iteration of SD 42 was a few points redder than SD 37, with Biden’s margin shrinking to just over 15 points. The 2022 senate race for SD 42 was more competitive, with Democrat Rachel Hunt winning the open seat by nearly 10 points. The district has been redrawn for 2024 to be redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 6 points. Note that SD 42 still seems to be a leftward trending district under the 2024 boundaries, given that it would have easily supported Romney by almost 22 points and Trump by a narrow 4-point margin in 2016. Interestingly, Democrat Cal Cunningham lost the district by nearly 3 points in the 2020 U.S. Senate race, underperforming Biden by several points, though Beasley was able to carry the seat by nearly 5 points in 2022, only running a point behind Biden. In addition, the seat is open again this cycle, as Hunt is opting to run for Lieutenant Governor instead. The district should be highly competitive, given the lack of an incumbent and that the region seems to be somewhat friendlier to the GOP down-ballot. I’m classifying SD 42 as a Toss Up. Woodson Bradley, who serves as a Mecklenburg County Precinct Chair, is running on the Dem side, while two Republicans are currently running: Jaime Daniell and Stacie McGinn, the latter of whom has served as General Counsel for the Mecklenburg GOP.

For anyone wondering, I try to be explicit about which districts are Dem-held or Republican-held in my summary posts, which I write after my more detailed district-level posts. (These summary posts give my overall assessment of the chamber and contain color coded charts.)

Thanks to DRA (for all statewide/presidential results of the 2024 districts), cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the 2022 districts), Drew Savicki (for the 2012 presidential result of the 2024 iteration of SD 42) and Daily Kos Elections (for remaining presidential results).

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