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Where do we stand, really? And why? [1]

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Date: 2023-12-14

I’m going to start by saying something fairly controversial: Biden’s approval (and subsequently his H2H numbers) are in the crapper, and we don’t know why or really how much, but I am starting to become convinced that it’s not because of Gaza.

I know, I know, you can’t swing a dead cat on Threads (I’m @progressivephysicist on there, by the way, if you’d like to follow) without seeing some 20-something loudly calling Biden a murderer and saying that they’re going to do everything to defeat him next year because of Gaza. Some is legit, some is temporary, and some are no doubt Vlad’s psy-ops. But I got curious, is it really the case that people are reacting to Gaza and it’s only now showing up in the polls? Using aggregators like 538 (or god forbid, RCP) aren’t useful because clever pollsters can game them so easily.

Given our very strong performance in an election last month in places like PA (we won a statewide judicial election by a solid 5 points), KY (comfortably re-electing a dem governor), VA (retaking both houses against a relatively popular R governor), and obviously OH, it’s hard to take seriously the idea that people have really and actually soured on the party entirely. So maaaybe there’s something wrong with the polls.

But even if we can’t actually or immediately believe what an individual poll is telling us about how Biden is doing H2H on any given day, we can look at how a poll will change over time. So I collected every poll that did a Biden approval between July-Sep, and several times since. There are about a dozen of them: AP, Fox, Big Village, Emerson, HarrisX, Ipsos, Morning Consult, Rasmussen, RMG, TIPP, YouGov (both CBS and Economist), and Marist. A couple of these are high quality, many are mediocre, some are terrible. But here’s the thing: we’re taking the median, and we’re only asking the question of how much the net approval shifted from poll to poll. That’s what’s plotted up top. In October Biden did, indeed, lose about 3 points in net approval on average from his summer numbers. That number is now about 2 points. But here’s the thing: that’s nothing. You don’t lose to a felon because of a shift of 2 points in your net approval.

Pollsters are polling more now, so we’re more aware of when every poll drops, and it looks terrible, and as I said above, I don’t really buy certain crosstab numbers in any of these polls (I suspect people are protesting Biden but will fall in line), but nevertheless, I have some questions:

If people from core Dem blocs really are just protesting Biden in the polls, why aren’t we seeing a similar effect for Trump? After all, he’s only getting about 60% of the R vote. Why aren’t there more republicans pretending that they aren’t going to vote for him?

If not Gaza, what the actual hell are people so mad at Biden about? Inflation is low(-ish), unemployment is very low, the stock market is high, interest rates are falling. He’s stood with unions, canceled (some) student debt, appointed a huge number of diverse and progressive judges. To my mind, he’s been one of the best presidents in my lifetime. Why are people so pissed at him?

What can we do to turn it around? I mean, yelling at people online is great and all, but what organizations will actually make a difference in messaging? Because if we wait for the Post and the Times to improve their reporting on him, we’re going to be waiting a long time. I have some money and I’d be happy to give some. Make a pitch!

A big part of this is that for once, it really does feel like the Dems are in disarray, and we here at DKos should be doing what we can to right that ship. Please and thank you for any strategizing that you can suggest.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/14/2211801/-Where-do-we-stand-really-And-why?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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