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These GOP Incumbents are the #MAGADozen. Why Should We Work to Defeat Them? [1]
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Date: 2023-12-13
I am leaving the last space in the #MAGADozen blank, because there’s always a race that develops late. I’ll update this list when it is clear which seat(s) are ripe for an upset — like Rep. Lauren Boebert in 2022.
Today, I am writing about the 11 incumbents (so far) that are in swing seats that Trump won, or had especially close races in 2022. Some of these incumbents are new to holding swing seats, while others are still relatively new to Congress. All of them can be beaten by their skilled challengers, because they have problematic records or even scandals swirling around them. Some of these candidates, even with their skill, are still longshots to win. But to get a strong majority in the House, we need to contest and win these types of districts.
In order to win back the House of Representatives, we need to gain a net of 5 seats from the Republican Party. I’ve already posted an overview of the entire House landscape for the 2024 election. It was very ambitious to write about so many different races at once! It was likely too full of information and difficult to read because of that. So, I’ve decided to break down the races into 4 categories.
If you like this article, make sure to follow the Save the Majority group and the #SaveTheMajority hashtag by clicking the links. Once 2024 rolls around, I plan on writing articles about the 2024 elections on Sundays.
California-3: Rep. Kevin Kiley
Rep. Kevin Kiley has a MAGA voting record in a district Trump barely won. Can we beat him in 2024?
This district focuses on the Sacramento suburbs and then the spine of the Sierra Nevada in California. The incumbent is Rep. Kevin Kiley, who first won this seat in 2022. He is a member of the #MAGADozen because Trump only won his district 49.7% to 47.9% in the 2020 election. Kiley did better than that in 2022, winning this seat by a 53.6% to 46.4% result.
We have two candidates running for this district in 2024. Businessman Douglas Huhn is running for this district, as well as former California Natural Resources Agency member Jessica Morse. The Top 2 primary to see who advances to face Kiley will be decided on March 5th, 2024.
California-41: Rep. Ken Calvert
Rep. Ken Calvert has been a do-nothing member of Congress for 32 years. Is 2024 our year to beat him?
This district combines portions of the Inland Empire with Palm Springs in southern California. The incumbent is Rep. Ken Calvert, who first came to Congress in 1992. He is a member of the #MAGADozen because Trump barely won the district, as well as having a close race in 2022. Trump won this district 49.7% to 48.6% in 2020, while Calvert won 52.3% to 47.7% in the 2022 midterms.
We have three candidates running for this district. One, pastor Brian Hawkins, ran as a Republican in 2022 so we can ignore him. A second is Lake Elsinore city councilor Tim Sheridan, but he is raising little money. Our 2022 candidate, former prosecutor Will Rollins, is our best chance of winning.
Colorado-3: Rep. Lauren Boebert
Very obvious why Rep. Lauren Boebert is a part of the #MAGADozen. Let’s defeat her in 2024!
This district features the city of Pueblo and the Western Slope of the state of Colorado. Rep. Lauren Boebert is a part of the #MAGADozen because she was involved in the closest House race in the country in 2022. Trump actually won her district 52.9% to 44.7% in 2020, showing that she alienates even her fellow Republicans. Boebert only won by less than 600 votes, or 50.1% to 49.9%.
Boebert has some primary opposition again, but there are multiple challengers and the clown car effect will save her. Her Democratic opposition includes the mayor of Grand Junction Anna Stout and 2022 nominee Adam Frisch. Frisch is raising tons of money, and is the likely nominee once again.
Iowa-1: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is in a district trending to the GOP. Is 2024 the last chance to beat her?
This district is found in southeastern Iowa, and includes the University of Iowa and the Quad Cities. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is a part of the #MAGADozen because Trump barely won her district in 2020, only winning it 50.5% to 47.6%. Miller-Meeks had an easier time winning in 2022, romping over her opposition by a margin of 53.4% to 46.6%. This may be our last chance of beating her before her district glides out of reach, because Iowa is on a trend to the right.
Miller-Meeks has just gained a primary challenger in 2024, because even MAGA Republicans aren’t pure enough. It remains to be seen if ministry founder David Pautsch is a true threat to her or not. The Democratic challenger is the same as in 2022, former State Rep. Christina Bohannan.
Iowa-3: Rep. Zach Nunn
Rep. Zach Nunn only barely flipped this district in 2022. We can win this seat back in 2024!
This district is located in southwestern Iowa, and includes the Des Moines metro area as well. Rep. Zach Nunn is included in the #MAGADozen because he barely won this seat in 2022. Trump also barely won this district by a 49.3% to 48.9% result in 2020. Nunn won 50.3% to 49.6% in 2022 over an incumbent Democratic member of Congress. This is the part of Iowa trending our way as well.
We now have two candidates for this district. One is Melissa Vine, who just joined the race. The other candidate is Lanon Baccam, a former Dept. of Agriculture official and a military veteran. There are others still considering entering the race, but Baccam has already raised quite a bit of funds.
Michigan-10: Rep. John James
Rep. John James finally made it to Congress in 2022. Let’s oust him in 2024 before he is entrenched!
This district contains the suburbs of Detroit found primarily in Macomb County in Michigan. Rep. John James is part of the #MAGADozen because he barely won in 2022, and Trump barely won his district. Trump only won here 49.8% to 48.8% in 2020, and James only won 48.8% to 48.3% due to a third party spoiler. This will be a more difficult race in 2024, because Macomb County is prime Reagan/Trump Democrat country.
We have numerous candidates running for this district in 2024. There are so many of them that I am listing them instead of describing them. The primary election will be on August 6, 2024.
Emily Busch, a sales manager and gun safety activist
Dr. Anil Kumar, member of the Wayne State University board of governors
Carl Marlinga, 2022 nominee and former Macomb County prosecuting attorney
Diane Young, financial planner
There are two other candidates, but they have yet to raise the amount of cash needed to be taken seriously in a very crowded primary.
Montana-1: Rep. Ryan Zinke
Rep. Ryan Zinke left Congress once, but now he’s back. Let’s eject him again in 2024!
This district contains the western portions of the state of Montana. Rep. Ryan Zinke is a part of the #MAGADozen because he had a close race in 2022. Zinke also had a scandal filled tenure as Trump’s Secretary of the Interior. Trump won this district 52.2% to 45.3% in 2020, but Zinke only won 49.6% to 46.5% in 2022. Montana is still open to electing the right type of Democratic candidate!
Hopefully, that candidate will be 2022 nominee and former Olympian Monica Tranel. She is the only one running so far, and no others appear to be interested. Tranel will have to hope that voters pull the lever for Tester and her while also voting for Trump, or she is a longshot at best.
Pennsylvania-10: Rep. Scott Perry
Rep. Scott Perry is a Freedom Caucus true believer in a swing seat. Can we defeat him in 2024?
This district has both York and Harrisburg, and also has some rural southern Pennsylvania turf. Rep. Scott Perry is a member of the #MAGADozen because he is an insurrectionist found in a swing seat. Trump won this district 51.3% to 47.2% in 2020. We really didn’t challenge Perry in 2022, letting him skate by with a 53.8% to 46.2% win. A win like that over an underfunded challenger should be a cause for alarm in the incumbent! We also did well in this part of PA in the 2023 elections.
We have candidates lining up around the block to face him this time around. The list is quite long, so I am listing them instead of describing each one of them. The primary election is April 23, 2024.
John Broadhurst, a business consultant
Shamaine Daniels, 2022 nominee and Harrisburg city council member
Blake Lynch, a news station executive
Mike O’Brien, a retired Marine Corps Lt. Colonel
Janelle Stetson, former TV news anchor
We also have a couple more candidates, but they haven’t been raising enough money to get noticed in the primary election.
South Carolina-1: Rep. Nancy Mace
Rep. Nancy Mace has become increasingly erratic. We can definitely win this district over in 2024!
This district is found in the Lowcountry of South Carolina, and includes most of the coast and parts of Charleston. Rep. Nancy Mace is a member of the #MAGADozen due to her increasingly erratic behavior and the chance that this district will be redrawn soon. Trump won this district 53.5% to 44.9% in 2020, and Mace won 56.5% to 42.5% in 2022, so it is a reach without a redraw.
We have two candidates sparring to take on Mace. One is attorney and US Coast Guard veteran Mac Deford. The other competing in the primary is businessman Michael B. Moore. Mace is also under the threat of a primary challenge, but one has yet to materialize.
Texas-15: Rep. Monica De la Cruz
South Texas has changed in recent years, electing Rep. Monica De la Cruz. Can we defeat her in 2024?
This district stretches from the Rio Grande Valley all the way to near San Antonio in the state of Texas. Rep. Monica De la Cruz is a member of the #MAGADozen because Trump narrowly won her district. Also, the map could be redrawn at some point this decade thanks to possible VRA violations. Trump won this district 51.0% to 48.1% in 2020, but De la Cruz won 53.3% to 44.8% in 2022.
Our candidate in 2024 is the same one as in 2022. Business owner Michelle Vallejo seems to have cleared the field, and is running a more moderate campaign than the progressive one she ran in 2022. It remains to be seen if she can close the gap with Rep. De la Cruz, however.
Wisconsin-3: Rep. Derrick Van Orden
Rep. Derrick Van Orden is an insurrectionist that made it to Congress. Let’s knock him out in 2024!
This district is found in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, as well as environs north of it. Rep. Derrick Van Orden is a part of the #MAGADozen for being an insurrectionist. Trump also only won this district 51.5% to 46.8%, but it is more swingy than that. Van Orden won his seat in Congress in 2022 by a 51.9% to 48.1% margin, a closer race than what was expected.
We have numerous candidates running for this seat in 2024. Instead of describing each one in detail, I will list them below. The primary for the state of Wisconsin is May 14th, 2024.
Rebecca Cooke, 2022 runner up in the Democratic primary
Tara Johnson, former chair of the La Crosse County board
State Rep. Katrina Shankland
There are a couple of other potential and declared candidates, but they are either not in the race yet or haven’t proven they are viable.
TBD
The battleground map in early 2022.
There is always a race that doesn’t develop until late in the election season. In 2022, one of those races was Colorado’s 3rd district, where almost everyone underestimated the amount of trouble Rep. Lauren Boebert was in. There were also some races on the Democratic side where alarms were sent late on, including Rep. Darren Soto (FL-09), Rep. Jared Moskowitz (FL-23), and Rep. Joseph Morelle (NY-25).
There are some races with Republican incumbents I am still watching to see how they develop. They include Arizona-2, Florida-13, Florida-27, Iowa-2, Michigan-4, and Wisconsin-1. These would be longshot races at best, unless the political environment is amazing for us.
There are also some Democratic held seats I am watching just in case they become competitive. They include California-9, California-49, Florida-9, Florida-23, Kansas-3, Maryland-6, Michigan-3, Nevada-1, Nevada-4, New Hampshire-1, New Hampshire-2, Oregon-4, Texas-28, Texas-34, Virginia-10, and Washington-8. Most of these incumbents should be safe, but you never know…
Conclusion
These #MAGADozen incumbents are much more likely to win their seats than lose them, but a lot can change in two years, especially with the utter shit show the House of Representatives will likely be for the foreseeable future. It is very likely that Trump will win their Congressional districts yet again, and that all the incumbents have to do is tie themselves to him to win. The challengers will have to convince Trump voters to cross over and vote for them — a tall task to get enough of them!
If the challengers win these seats, most of them will be moderate members of our coalition at best. Full throated progressivism wins you districts that are deep blue — it rarely wins in swing districts and it definitely won’t win us a district that Trump won in 2020. Remember the mantra of MORE AND BETTER DEMOCRATS. These are the “more” Democrats so that the better Democrats can safely vote for progressive legislation.
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