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Ukraine: There is no plausible land for peace deal. [1]

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Date: 2023-12-12

With Republicans such as J.D. Vance pushing land for peace deals I wanted to remind people why such a scenario is fantasy. Not just the specific inane plan Vance is pushing, but anything involving security agreements for Ukraine is a nonstarter. There are a large variety of “peace plans” but they all involve some version of the following:

Ukraine temporarily or permanently gives up control and/or claim to Crimea and other occupied parts of Ukraine. Different plans use different lines, but the specific lines don’t really matter.

Ukraine becomes a member of NATO and/or enters into a security agreement with the United States or other interested countries.

Russia pinky-swears to never ever attack Ukraine again, and this time they really mean it (unlike the last 3 treaties they’ve broken with Ukraine).

Most sane people who are not intentionally trying to gaslight us can pretty much agree that Russia can not be trusted. If you think it can be trusted, then you are too naive or not paying any attention at all. So the plausibility of any land for peace deal (even IF Ukraine and Russia wanted it) lies solely on any security agreement that comes with the plan. Most any such plan I’ve seen seems to include the United States in it. Either through NATO, or through a US/Ukraine treaty.

Let’s first deal with NATO. Any deal involving NATO ends with the words “Victor Orban”. Ukrainian admittance into NATO requires all member countries agreeing to such, and also requires that Ukraine does not have contested land. So any theoretical deal would require both a binding deal with Mr. Orban AND some version of getting around the contested land clause. All NATO members could agree to ignore this clause in admitting Ukraine. Or, it would require Ukraine giving up all claims to the ceded land AND Russia giving up claims to land Ukraine still controls. So all of which is highly unlikely but not downright impossible.

As for a US/Ukraine treaty for the US to come to the defense of Ukraine, such a treaty would require a 2/3rds vote in the US senate. So anyone pretending a peace deal is possible with the US entering such a treaty is conveniently forgetting that Congress can’t even pass material aid to Ukraine as is. You think there are enough Republican votes in the Senate to ratify a treaty obligating the US to actually fight Russia with United States Soldiers when those Republicans can’t even agree to provide 30 year old surplus equipment now without the danger of risking US lives?

But let’s pretend one of these highly unlikely scenarios comes to pass and Ukraine gives up some land with promises of non-aggression by Russia and protection through some means by the United States. You are then asking Ukraine to abandon land and citizens to a genocidal Russia and trust the continuing existence of their country to the United States whose previous President attempted to extort Ukraine for political gain. Any land for peace deal predicated on the protection of the United States comes with it no assurances after 2024. And even if Biden wins reelection, what happens in 2028? A Biden win does not automatically get the US out of the fascist danger it is in. It obviously didn’t solve everything in 2020.

A defense treaty is not worth the paper it is written on. The effectiveness of a defense treaty is the trust that all parties have in each other that they will come to the others aid. Trump wanted to disband NATO. If a republican wins the Presidency, what is to prevent any of them from leaving NATO or simply ignoring article 5?

Frankly, Ukraine can’t trust the United States and shouldn’t trust the United States. Anybody pushing a treaty with a US security agreement is conveniently forgetting current politics and recent history. There is nothing magical about NATO or a bilateral treaty. A republican president might choose to ignore either and not face any internal US repercussions. Trump certainly didn’t face any for extorting Ukraine when he was in office.

So Ukraine cannot afford to sign any land for peace treaty. They are far better off to continue the current conflict in a defensive stance hoping to outlast Russia using homemade drones and what assistance they can get from those countries still helping them.

And we haven’t even gotten into why Russia would sign such a treaty. Why would Russia sign a treaty gambling that Biden loses the 2024 election? They’ve already achieved the removal of US support for Ukraine (hopefully temporary, but don’t count on it). Why allow Ukraine to formally partner with a country that could prevent Russia from taking Ukraine? Russia wants the distraction of a war for its people and Putin shows no sign of being vulnerable.

So don’t buy into any land for peace deals. All it accomplishes is allowing people to pretend that Ukraine could have peace but only if it gave away some land (and forget that people live there who will continue to be brutally treated). It allows people to pretend that we don’t have a moral obligation to continue to support Ukraine with military aid. It lets people think that its just Ukraine’s choice to continue fighting. But it ignores that Ukraine doesn’t have the luxury of trusting to a treaty with the United States who could abandon them depending upon the winds of US politics. Once upon a time the guarantee of the United States would hold some weight, but no longer. The Republicans have destroyed all credibility of our treaties. So remember that your land for peace deal can’t work because Republicans can’t be trusted.

If you want to support my writing you can buy me coffee! :)

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/12/2211359/-Ukraine-There-is-no-plausible-land-for-peace-deal?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

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