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Ukraine Invasion Day 658: drones at work [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-12-12
US intelligence reportedly assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in fall 2023 and through the upcoming winter aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine instead of achieving any immediate operational objectives.
@Flash_news_ua Air Defense Forces of Ukraine shot down 10 out of 10 of "Shahed" drones and 10 out of ten of ballistic missiles last night, reports the Air Forcs. Almost all russian UAVs launched by the russians from the Balaklava area (temporarily occupied Crimea) were shot down in the Odesa region. All 10 targets heading towards the capital were shot down by an Air Force anti-aircraft missile unit.
The US intelligence community reportedly shared a declassified intelligence assessment with Congress on December 12 wherein US intelligence assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine but have only resulted in heavy Russian losses and no operationally significant Russian battlefield gains. [1] This assessment of high Russian losses and lack of operationally significant Russian gains is consistent with ISW’s assessment. US National Security Council Spokesperson Andrienne Watson reportedly stated that Russian forces have suffered more than 13,000 casualties and lost 220 combat vehicles along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis (Avdiivka direction through western Donetsk Oblast) since launching offensive operations in October 2023. [2] Watson added that Russia appears to believe that a military “deadlock” through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine and give Russian forces the advantage despite high Russian losses and persistent Russian shortages of trained personnel, munitions, and equipment. [3] ISW has assessed that Russian forces have been trying to regain the theater-level initiative in Ukraine since at least mid-November 2023 and have now likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative. [4] www.understandingwar.org/...
x "A world in which Putin defeats Ukraine is one where the U.S.’s standing in the world is diminished, where Iran and North Korea are emboldened, where China dominates the Indo-Pacific, where the Middle East becomes more unstable"
https://t.co/uiqRRLKP2D via @politico — Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) December 12, 2023
Russian forces may be conducting costly offensive operations at a time unfavorable for ground maneuver to time the potential shift in battlefield initiative with ongoing conversations in the West about continued support to Ukraine. Russian forces launched a large offensive effort to capture Avdiivka on October 10 and subsequently intensified localized offensive operations elsewhere in eastern Ukraine while Ukrainian forces started to scale back counteroffensive operations on their own accord. [5] The Russian military command decided against waiting to prepare for offensive efforts later this winter or in spring 2024 following the decreased tempo of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, as they had done between the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in summer and fall 2022 and the failed Russian winter-spring 2023 offensive. [6] The Russian military command’s decision to launch offensive efforts in fall 2023 may have been an opportunistic reaction to a perceived wavering of Western support for Ukraine. The increased Western discussions about continuing military assistance to Ukraine following the relatively successful Russian defensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast was predictable and may have factored into the Russian command’s calculations. The Kremlin has been orchestrating long running information operations aimed at deterring Western security assistance to Ukraine, and the Russian command may have determined that those information operations were yielding increasing returns and that Russian military efforts to seize the initiative could prompt further Western debates about aid to Ukraine. [7] Russian forces have routinely conducted military operations in Ukraine aimed at shaping Western behavior instead of achieving operational battlefield objectives, and the US intelligence assessment that ongoing Russian offensive operations do not have an immediate operational military objective is entirely plausible. [8] Russian forces have yet to seize the initiative throughout Ukraine, but Russian forces may attempt to pursue an immediate operational objective if they do seize the initiative. The Russian military command has also reportedly conducted offensive operations with domestic political goals in mind, and internal Kremlin dynamics may be influencing Russian military decisions about ongoing Russian offensive operations. [9] ISW is not offering an assessment of the primary intent of ongoing Russian offensive operations at this time but concurs with the US intelligence community assessment that Russia has absorbed very high losses without making operationally significant gains or setting conditions to make such gains. www.understandingwar.org/...
x Maybe it was a twinge of shame being near a brave man.
https://t.co/A1bKhVa0j4 — Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 13, 2023
x ‘Republicans to meet allies of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán on ending Ukraine aid’
‘Hungarian appearance at two-day event part of Orbán’s transatlantic attempt to bolster Russia’s war’
“event hosted by the conservative Heritage Foundation thinktank”#JDVance
https://t.co/60eqlc5lev — Ramona (@desderamona) December 11, 2023
JD, not Cyrus Vance
x Since 1941, the U.S. has enjoyed a reputation as a reliable ally and partner to democracies around the world. We are squandering that reputation right now over delaying funding Ukraine. And once we lose it, it will be very difficult to restore. — Michael McFaul (@McFaul) December 12, 2023
x The Number of Civilians who were Injured tonight in the Ukrainian Capital City of Kyiv as a result of the Russian Ballistic Missiles Attack has now Risen to 34 with at least 12 of those requiring Hospitalization; Ukrainian Officials are claiming that all of the Missiles were… pic.twitter.com/BVzwt0UwIk — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) December 13, 2023 According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Moscow has launched what state news service Ukrinform described as the “largest number” of attacks on Ukrainian troops in the past day in the strategically critical city of Avdiivka, despite colder weather. Record levels of attacks on Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, AFU says US intelligence says Russia has lost more than 13,000 troops latest Avdiivka battles Department of Defense outlines contents of $200 million package for Kyiv Ukraine troops hold the advantage at night, UK intel claims Drone strikes damage administrative building in Odesa Zelensky lauds AFU troops for regaining slag heap near Bakhmut www.kyivpost.com/... Key Takeaways: US intelligence reportedly assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in fall 2023 and through the upcoming winter aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine instead of achieving any immediate operational objectives.
Russian forces may be conducting costly offensive operations at a time unfavorable for ground maneuver to time the potential shift in battlefield initiative with ongoing conversations in the West about continued support to Ukraine.
US intelligence also assessed that the war in Ukraine has devastated the pre-war Russian military, although Russia has partially offset these losses and continues to prepare for a long war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with various US officials, including President Joe Biden, and spoke to Congress about US military assistance to Ukraine in Washington, DC on December 12.
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes targeting Ukraine on December 12.
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian special services may have conducted the major cyberattack on Ukrainian mobile operator Kyivstar on December 12.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that GUR cyber units recently conducted a successful cyber operation against the Russian Federal Tax Service (FNS).
Russian news outlet RBK reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin has designated prominent Russian milbloggers as “trusted persons” in his presidential election campaign for the first time.
A St. Petersburg court sentenced three underage Uzbek migrants and their parents to deportation for extinguishing the Eternal Flame in St. Petersburg amid ongoing tension between Central Asian communities in Russia and Russian authorities.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 12 and advanced in some areas.
The Russian State Duma adopted a series of laws on December 12 to help further bolster Rosgvardia’s and the Federal Security Service’s (FSB) force generation capacity.
Russian occupation authorities continue to use the Kremlin-funded pseudo-volunteer “Dvizheniye Pervykh” (Movement of the First) youth organization to indoctrinate Ukrainian youth in occupied Ukraine with Russian and cultural national identities. www.understandingwar.org/...
x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 12, 2023
■ Strikes on both sides below 7-day average but 🇺🇦 ones up between days
■ Combat engagements slightly above, fewer settlements under artillery fire
■ Troop & equipment losses below 7-day average but double-digit missile interception
See… pic.twitter.com/LtiSANGfqC — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) December 12, 2023
x BURN RATE: A declassified US intelligence report estimates that the war in Ukraine has cost Russia 315,000 dead, or almost 90% of the personnel it had at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
The report says that Moscow's losses in personnel and armoured vehicles inflicted… pic.twitter.com/n1wBWvLl47 — Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) December 12, 2023
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that GUR cyber units recently conducted a successful cyber operation against the Russian Federal Tax Service (FNS). The GUR stated on December 12 that GUR cyber units broke into the FNS’s central servers and 2,300 regional services throughout Russia and occupied Crimea and conducted two cyberattacks on unspecified dates, eliminating the configuration files that allowed the Russian tax system databases to function. [30] Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued localized offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 12 but did not make any confirmed gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled at least eight Russian assaults in the Kupyansk direction near Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk), Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk), and Ivanivka (20km southwest of Kupaysnk) and two Russian assaults in the Lyman direction near Makiivka (23km northwest of Kreminna). [44] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations northeast and south of Bakhmut on December 12 and recently advanced south of Bakhmut. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted footage of Ukrainian forces raising a flag over the Horlivka waste heap (22km southeast of Bakhmut or just west of Horlivka) uncontested, signaling their control of the area. [49] … [51] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Pazeno, Luhansk Oblast (20km northeast of Bakhmut). [52] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka at a higher tempo on December 12 and made a confirmed advance. Geolocated footage published on December 12 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Avdiivka. [61] ... The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled at least 42 Russian attacks east of Novokalynove and Novobakhmutivka (9km northwest of Avdiivka); near Stepove (3km northwest of Avdiivka), Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske (14km southwest of Avdiivka); and south of Sieverne and Tonenke. [65] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that Russian forces launched a massive offensive with armored vehicles in the Avdiivka direction on December 10 and continued these assaults with air support. [66]... The spokesperson for a Ukrainian unit serving in the Avdiivka direction stated on December 12 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked and pushed Russian forces from positions near Stepove on December 11. [68] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/...
Droll Denys
x David Sacks is one of Peter Thiel's cutouts for pushing Russian talking points; Vivek Ramaswamy is another; JD Vance is a third. The Thiel avatars all speak in unison, and the voice they are channeling is Peter's. And Peter is serving Putin. 13/
https://t.co/UvW3VdwOdX — capitolhunters (@capitolhunters) December 12, 2023
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