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Pennsylvania State House: 2024 Ratings [1]

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Date: 2023-12-08

Up next in my state legislative summary posts (for 2024 ratings) is the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, which I looked at last month. A chart with my ratings for all the competitive seats can be found at the top of the post. As per usual, I have excluded non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”).

One important update is that the chamber will be tied at 101D-101R in less than two weeks, as Democrat John Galloway of HD 140 is resigning, after winning a judicial election in November. This district wasn’t originally on my radar, as I felt it was safe for Dems with Galloway as the incumbent, but I feel the district is worth looking at now. HD 140 is a Democratic-leaning district but seems to have trended to the right in recent years at the presidential level. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, the district went from supporting Barack Obama by about 28.5 points to supporting Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden by considerably narrower margins of between 12 and 13 points, with Biden underperforming Clinton by less than a percentage point. The 2022 redistricting made HD 140 a few points redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking by nearly 2 points. At the state house level, Democrat John Galloway ran unopposed for most of his state house races and easily won reelection by 20 points in 2020, outrunning Biden by several points. The Democrats shouldn’t have trouble holding the seat in a special election, given their previous successes in specials earlier this year, but the low-turnout nature (of specials) still makes them unpredictable. With regards to the November general, I am classifying HD 140 as Likely Democrat. However, I could see the rating potentially change depending on how the special goes, with the seat possibly moving off the board if Dems do extremely well or becoming more competitive if the GOP manages to flip it in an upset, though the Dems would still be at least somewhat favored in November, regardless. The district is marked VACANT on my chart. Three Democrats are already running in the special: Donna Petrecco, Melanie Bidlingmaier, and Jim Prokopiak. There don’t seem to be any Republican candidates yet.

One notable candidate update is that Republican Craig Williams, the current incumbent in HD 160, is now running for Attorney General. It is unclear whether Williams is also running for reelection, so I’m not ready to label the seat as “open.” If the seat does become open, the Democrats chances of flipping it would improve, but I would still likely keep my current Toss Up rating. It should be pointed out, though, that if Williams were to run for reelection and win the Attorney General race, his seat would obviously become vacant, prompting a special election that would likely be held in early 2025. In addition, the Democrats also have a challenger for the district, Carrie Stare.

In HD 187, Democrat Anna Day, who was the challenger last cycle, is challenging Republican incumbent Joe Emrick again.

Also, as I didn’t address this in earlier posts, I should note that the state’s legislative maps of the previous decade went into effect in 2014, as opposed to the 2012, which was standard for most states. When I refer to Obama’s 2012 performances under the pre-2022 boundaries, I am using the 2014 boundaries. I have also ignored 2012 state legislative races in my analyses for this reason. (All of this applies to both my PA house and PA senate analyses.)

My overall rating for the chamber is a Toss Up. As indicated above, the current balance in the chamber is 102D-101R and is soon to be 101D-101R. If Democrats have a net loss of just one seat, the Republicans will gain control of the chamber, assuming the Dems hold onto HD 140 in the special. (Obviously, if the Republicans flip HD 140 in the special, they would have already gained control of the chamber.) If both parties hold onto the seats they are currently favored in, the Republicans just need to flip one of the two Democratic-held toss-ups to flip the chamber, as long as they successfully defend all four of their toss-up seats. One potential positive for Dems is that all the GOP-held toss-ups are seats that Biden carried, while only one of the two Dem-held toss-ups supported Donald Trump in 2020. It should be noted that over 61% of the competitive seats are currently in “Likely” categories, but retirements (especially on the Dem-side) could make several of these districts more competitive.

Thanks to cnalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the current districts) and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the pre-2022 districts).

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