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2024 Election, I don't matter [1]
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Date: 2023-12-08
The Washington Post has a lead today (12/8/2024) Next presidential election could bring electoral college flaws to forefront. It provides compelling evidence that I do not matter. I live in Oregon, a reliably blue state that shows no indication of being a battleground in any state wide campaign. I live in a very Red county. It always elects Republicans to local offices by very wide margins. Most voters in the state are entrenched in their party. They are not persuadable. I know, I am not.
This is now the reality in most of the country. There are only ten states that may be competitive in the 2024 presidential election. And in those states, there are only a tiny fraction of voters that are persuadable, often only a small fraction out of several million. In most cases, the vast quantity of available data and AI mean that each party knows in advance who each voter will vote for, if they can be convinced to vote.
So, it is easy to conclude that most of the get out the vote effort is useless. A large majority of us live in areas where the result is already known. So, while I will vote, I know that really, my vote does not matter. I am a predictable Democrat. However, there is no chance my vote will change anything. Republicans will be elected locally and Democrats will win all the statewide contests.
If I really wanted a chance to change anything, I would register as a Republican so that I could vote for the least objectionable local candidate in the Republican primary and then vote a straight Democratic ticket in the general to wash off the stink of my faux Republican identity. The downside, I don’t think I could live with being identified on the voter roles as a Republican.
A small quote from the Washington post article sums it for the 2024 Presidential election:
“It’s now getting to the point where you are probably talking about 400,000 people in three or four states. That is what it is getting down to,” said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns since 1980. “It does mean that more and more people feel that they don’t have a say.”
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