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Could it be that the Hamas October 7 attack was "provoked?" [1]

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Date: 2023-12-07

Reported from my Substack.

Many of those who support Israel in their recent conflict with Hamas in Gaza have frequently stated that the deadly October 7 attack by Hamas was unprecedented and “unprovoked.” But I’ve received information that that may not actually be the case.

In my Facebook Group Army For Truth I recently had a post by someone who stated that they worked with Hamas.

Maria Joud I am from Hamas My work in Hamas is a communication I have a message And my message to the United States of America My letter to President Joe Beden In particular, the events of October 7 and the kidnapping of hostages The reason for what they did on October 7 of kidnapping hostages It was caused by what was done by the Israeli occupation in 2022, as this occupation displaced Palestinians and burned their homes. Anyone who opposed was killed or imprisoned The death toll reached about fifty About six thousand young men were imprisoned In 2022, America did not say that Palestine must defend itself O President, when you see a dangerous event, you should not look at the most recent event that occurred before it If we assume that you are the owner of a family and you have children and someone comes to you and burns your house and puts your children in prison, when you defend your family and kill him, we will not say that you are a terrorist if events occurred before you killed him. This is an example. Israel controls the world through lies Her characteristics include lying, murder, and lack of trustworthiness You, President Joe Biden, give me the light to kill a child And the killing of my children will be your reason If they don't want to shoot, let them direct themselves on the battlefield To me, killing innocent people, children and women is a crime I'm talking to you, don't be afraid of me I only fear God Finally, everyone who reads my message must post a message to me that Israel will delete Thank you

Skipping past the obviously overblown claims such as “Israel controls the world through lies” this post made me wonder if there could have been a preceding event that specifically triggered the attack on October 7th?

Perhaps.

We’ve had a great deal of strife over these events. Violence has broken out against Jews and Israelis around the world with huge Pro-Palestinian demonstrations. Violence has also been carried out against Palestinians. This conflict has a history that goes back 70 years to the original Nakba in 1948 where the Palestinian people were forcibly migrated in order to make a new home for the Jewish people.

But was there a recent aggressive act by Israel that fostered these horrific attacks?

Yes, actually, there was according to the Middle East Monitor.

Israel has detained 6,000 Palestinians since the start of this year [2022], including 141 women and 739 children, the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club (PPC) revealed yesterday. In a report issued yesterday, the PPC said that the Israeli occupation had issued 1,829 administrative detention orders; detaining Palestinians without charge or trial. According to the report, the highest number of detainees was recorded in Jerusalem where 2,700 Palestinians had been detained. In the report, the PPC stated that this year was the worst for prisoners and their families compared to the past few years. The report also found that there are a number of wounded prisoners and those with medical ailments inside Israeli jails, stressing that the lack of proper treatment and medical care puts their life at stake. As of September, there were 4,700 Palestinian prisoners inside Israeli jails, the PPC report said, including 30 females and 190 minors.

There is another report of this from WAFA News using a similar source, the PPS.

RAMALLAH, Tuesday, November 8, 2022 (WAFA) – Around 6000 Palestinians, including 739 minors and 141 women, were detained by Israeli forces since the start of 2022, said the Palestinian Prisoner’s Society (PPS) in a press statement. PPS said the Israeli occupation issued 1829 administrative detention orders during this year, noting that Jerusalem registered the highest number of arrests, amounting to around 2700 detention cases. It said that the year 2022 witnessed severe abuse against prisoners and their families when compared with the last few years, particularly in light of the ongoing extrajudicial executions and the increase in the number of injured detainees who were detained directly after being shot or after a period of time. It noted that the rising number of wounded detainees in Israeli jails has resulted in high numbers of severe illnesses that require intensive medical follow-up. PPS stressed that the administrative detentions in 2022 were the most serious when compared to the last few years; the highest of which was recorded in August with 272 new administrative orders and their number reached more than 820 detainees by the end of October.

On the other hand, we also have information that Israel was warned about this potential attack from Hamas more than a year ago.

JERUSALEM: Israel's military was aware of Hamas' plan to launch an attack on Israeli soil over a year before the devastating Oct 7 operation that killed hundreds of people, The New York Times reported on Friday (Dec 1). It was the latest in a series of signs that top Israeli commanders either ignored or played down warnings that Hamas was plotting the attack, which triggered a war against the Islamic militant group that has devastated the Gaza Strip. The Times said Israeli officials were in possession of a 40-page battle plan, code-named “Jericho Wall”, that detailed a hypothetical Hamas attack on southern Israeli communities. It was unclear how the document was obtained by Israel, but the article said that it had been translated - indicating it may have been in Arabic and directly intercepted from Hamas.

This throws some doubt on the claim that the attack was only done in response to the actions of the IDF since the plan for the attack already existed, and a copy of that plan was already in Israeli hands.

It may also be true that Hamas had the plan on the shelf and decided to implement it in order to recover many of the prisoners that had been taken by Israel the previous year. You could even go a little further down the rabbit hole and speculate that Israel took so many prisoners because they already knew about the plan and wanted to provoke Hamas into taking rash action to justify their even more harsh response making Gaza completely uninhabitable.

Naturally, all of this is speculative and remains to be proven. So far.

We do know that Hamas’ attack was absolutely horrible, and also that what the IDF is doing to innocent Gazans is also — horrible. What may be worse is the waves of violent anti-Semitism and Islamaphobia this situation has fostered. This isn’t the fault of the Israeli people or the fault of the Gazans as their separate governments bloodily battle it out.

Either way, there remains the concern that this may all be an extensive effort to reimplement the original Nakba and yet again forcibly migrate all Palestinians out of Gaza.

Now, Palestinians fear the most painful moment from their history is repeating itself. “You look at those pictures of people without cars, on donkeys, hungry and barefoot, getting out any way they can to go to the south,” said political analyst Talal Awkal, who has decided to stay in Gaza City because he doesn’t think the south will be any safer. “It is a catastrophe for Palestinians, it is a Nakba,” he said. “They are displacing an entire population from its homeland.”

Realistically, this could the IDF’s endgame. But it’s not likely to end their security issues. Gaza itself is a piece of land that was captured by Israel decades ago in their war with Egypt. It’s not even originally Palestinian/Israeli territory. What is to stop those who are now being forced into Egypt from squatting right next door to Gaza and establishing yet another settlement on Egyptian land?

Well, besides the Egyptians that is.

Wherever they go - Palestinians will still cling to their “right to return” to their previous homeland. They will also continue to be a threat to the government of Israel.

Many consider this conflict to be impossible to conclude or reconcile, but they said the same thing about the Troubles of Northern Ireland and the Balkan War of Ethnic Cleansing — and yet those strifes were ultimately resolved. No one believed that was possible, but it was.

Israel and Palestine have also previously signed a peace agreement during the 90s. Unfortunately, that fell apart when hard-right Israelis assassinated their Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Arafat turned out to be a feckless partner.

It seems like an insurmountable mountain to climb, but there was at least a temporary halt to hostilities allowing for a hostage/prisoner exchange.

As much as it can, America needs to understand that Israel does not have clean hands here — just as Hamas had committed bloody atrocities. It is possible for them to find common ground and to work together at achieving small goals, then it is possible to achieve larger goals.

As much as England didn’t want to accept and extend legitimacy to the IRA’s political arm Sinn Fein and their leader Gerry Adams it was that act that ultimately led to a settlement in Northern Ireland. Perhaps something similar, where Palestinians are ultimately granted equal human rights and protections throughout Israel would be a serious first step for them to choose different methods besides violence to resolve their issues.

I don’t know that Hamas is the right partner to make this kind of deal, but finding that partner needs to be part of the solution to this decades-old problem. Simply putting a potential deal on the table just might be enough to help dislodge Hamas and give Gazans back their own authority. We’ll have to see, not even bothering to try certainly won't work.

Either way, it’s clear that the current pathway can’t be continued without leading to Genocide.

And no one wants that, right?

Right?

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