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More Russian stuff blowing up: Ukraine launches mass drone assault on Crimea [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-12-05

Ukraine launched a large drone attack against targets in eastern Crimea. Naturally Russia claims to have shot them all down.

x Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched a large-scale drone attack on Crimea overnight and struck, according to SBU:



-Nebo-M Radar

-P-18 Terek Radar

-Baikal-1M Command Post

-Helicopter Parking Lot

-Oil Terminal in Feodosia



Residents reported 16 explosions heard near Kerch and 4 in Feodosia, Crimea pic.twitter.com/ROez8Ii0Mj — Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) December 5, 2023

An interesting thread on what it will take to knock out the Kerch Bridge.

The gist is that to destroy the bridge, you have to take out the piers. Hitting the bridge deck isn’t enough. And even if Ukraine acquired Taurus cruise missiles from Germany, that might not be sufficient to do the job. The best approach is to hit the bridge deck repeatedly with ATACMS (with unitary warheads), Storm Shadow and Taurus missiles, assuming Germany eventually provides them.

x But here's the thing: the parts of the bridge that are easiest to damage, like the deck (roadway) and support beams are also the easiest to repair & replace. Limited one-way vehicle traffic resumed after a few days, even though full capacity wasn't restored for several months 8/ — Rob Person 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@RTPerson3) December 5, 2023

The second successful attack was in July 2023, when Ukraine was able to detonate a sea drone packed with explosives underneath a span running close to the water. It too did damage to the bridge deck, but the damage was again repaired pretty quickly. 9/ In order to permanently disable or destroy the bridge, Ukrainian forces would need to deliver a devastating knockout blow to one of the massive concrete & steel piers that rise out of the water and support the road and rail decks. Turns out that's really hard to do. 10/ Sea drones aren't up to the task. They deliver an unconfined air blast that disperses their explosive energy in all directions. A relatively small percentage actually reaches the bridge structure. Enough to damage the deck, but not bring down a pier. 11/ But missiles aren't the silver bullet many make them out to be. First, the ~20 ATACMS missiles Washington gave Kyiv are the wrong type: they're armed with cluster munitions (about 950 bomblets) that are great against many mil targets but ineffective against infrastructure. 12/ There's a version of the ATACMS that carry a single warhead that we haven't given Ukraine yet. But even these probably don't have the explosive power to fatally damage one or more piers. Those piers are truly massive, heavily reinforced, and pretty robust. 13/ In order to deliver a crippling blow, they'd have to get a massive salvo of missiles past Russian defenses to repeatedly hit weak points where the piers support the deck. That's a small target for a missile that on average lands 50% of its shots within 30 feet of its target. 14/ ATACMS just don't pack enough punch. But German Taurus missiles might work. These bunker busters were designed to destroy hardened infrastructure with a two-stage warhead that could penetrate deeper into the bridge's main support columns. If they can get past defenses… 15/ Unfortunately Berlin won't give the Taurus to Ukraine, likely out of fear of escalation. But that fear is overblown, based on Putin's past actions. 16/ In order to permanently destroy the bridge, Ukraine would need an engineered demolition, carefully placing explosive charges on key weak spots throughout. They don't have the access to pull this off, but it's probably the first thing they'll do when they retake Crimea. 17/ So if destroying the bridge is out of reach for now, what is the best we can hope for? Ukraine's allies must provide cruise missiles (ATACMS, Taurus, Storm Shadows) with unitary warheads in FAR greater quantities than we have so far. It's a numbers game. 18/ Armed with enough missiles, Ukraine could regularly strike the more vulnerable bridge deck, taking the bridge out of service temporarily until Russian crews repair it. Then they strike it again. And again. Constant strikes would seriously hinder Russian mil logistics in UKR. 19/

The good news for the Russians is that it was over with quickly. But who takes video of their own disastrous assault and then posts it online?

x An Izgoy films a Russian assault that managed to last over 1-minute and a couple hundred meters before the carnage starts and they withdraw.#KeystoneCops#OSINT #Counteroffensive #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/QreoLM3pX5 — OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) December 5, 2023

The repair facility is gonna need a lot of repairs.

Ammo Dump Jesus blesses this bavovna.

x SSO units destroyed a Russian ammunition warehouse alongside a BM-21 Grad MLRS launcher. pic.twitter.com/w1goH6yNhn — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 5, 2023

This is what’s known as a catastrophic detonation.

x Destruction of the Russian T-72B3M obr.2016. By the 92nd Brigade. Bakhmut front.https://t.co/ECf7m52wDq pic.twitter.com/26hPqfhepN — Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 5, 2023

This is what’s known as multiple catastrophic detonations.

x Strikes on Russian military convoy. Hladkivka, Kherson region. ~23km from the right bank. https://t.co/vANK1kNZIq pic.twitter.com/0RO56e9ypk — Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 10, 2023

Judging by the small holes in the covering of one of the trucks, this is a HIMARS hit with tungsten shrapnel.

WARNING: The video shows a lot of dead Russians.

x 11/10/2023



Left bank... Hladkivka, Kherson region ...



Heavens opened up and Saint Himars spewed some tungsten balls

Allegedly 76 dead russians pic.twitter.com/IfzmUX5c7Z — GWAR69 🇩🇰🇺🇦 (@GwarWorin) December 5, 2023

Sucks when you can’t even enjoy a bong hit in peace.

WARNING: Video shows Russian soldier taking a direct hit from a drone.

x A Ukrainian drone prevented the Russians from getting high



Smoking kills pic.twitter.com/61k7twbVyl — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) December 5, 2023

Cluster munitions take a heavy toll on Russian infantry.

x A Russian infantry assault group getting hit with conventional and cluster munitions near Stepove by the 129th Territorial Defense Brigade. pic.twitter.com/dun7t25Sco — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 5, 2023

Good riddance.

x The Ukrainian Air Force reported the destruction of an enemy Su-24M bomber pic.twitter.com/44R1PrQv0O — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) December 5, 2023

I’m sure they sent Russia a sternly worded letter.

x The Nepalese authorities have called on #Russia to stop recruiting its citizens for the war in #Ukraine after the deaths of six mercenaries



This was said in a statement by the Nepalese Foreign Ministry. The ministry published a list with the names of Nepalis killed in Ukraine… pic.twitter.com/9mRTrCgfEI — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) December 5, 2023

Romanians must be good at trolling. Message to Russia: Don’t fuck with us. We’ve got HIMARS too.

x Meanwhile Romanians are parading their HIMARS by the russian embassy in Bucharest pic.twitter.com/3ny5dJlntF — Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz) December 3, 2023

I think I can agree with each of these.

x Working for the Russian terrorist state:



Polish truckers blocking the border



The Republican Party blocking American aid to Ukrainian defenders



German Chancellor Scholz blocking Taurus for Ukrainian defenders



Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán blocking the work of the EU and NATO — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) December 5, 2023

Fly the frightening skies of Russia.

x A Russian airlines plane has suffered a flight failure for the sixth time in a week.



A passenger plane flying from Kazan to Moscow made an emergency landing at Sheremetyevo International Airport in Moscow, according to the TV channel "360" with reference to the source. The… https://t.co/qHBS0EomxH — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) December 5, 2023

Don’t mess with Mom.

x "My motivation is to return and rebuild my native Lysychansk."



"Matushka" ("Mammy,") combat medic of the 5th Slobozhanska Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, has four children. She says it's difficult for them to have a mom at war, but

they support her in everything and… pic.twitter.com/6ToMpkt2XG — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) December 5, 2023

They achieved a great victory over a school of fish.

x Russians post a lot of weird shit, but this might be one of the weirdest. Here you can see a Russian grad shelling a river. Those white dots are the rockets hitting the water. pic.twitter.com/C4RbTbSq4T — Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) December 5, 2023

Hi guys. I want to join you. I’ve been rooting for you guys all along. I swear. Slava Ukraini.

x The Ukrainian Armed Forces captured an “interesting” occupier from the Rostov region.

As soon as he realized that he was surrounded, he declared that he wanted to fight for Ukraine.

He also says that he hasn’t drunk water for 2 weeks (lying, I think). He is most likely on some… pic.twitter.com/WY79T9P3Mz — ✙ Albina Fella ✙ 🇺🇦🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇵🇱🇺🇸🇨🇦🇦🇺 (@albafella1) December 4, 2023

Hell of a long way to travel just to end up as cannon fodder.

x Cuban cannon fodder doing some slave work for their ruzZian masters in occupied Luhansk region. They seem happy... happy to be far away from frontline (for a while.). Communism baby, you end up in ruzZia fighting for rich muscovites.#lviv pic.twitter.com/O1NtUudaLJ — TheLvivJournal (@LvivJournal) December 5, 2023

In the event of an air raid, bend over, stick head between legs, kiss ass goodbye.

x 1/ Citizens of Moscow are being advised to "turn to God," "buy a dacha," or "go to another country" in the event of an air raid, due to the unavailability of bomb shelters. Most of the up-to-date ones appear to be reserved for officials of the government or Putin's party. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/rPc8gq7sic — ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) December 5, 2023

A strike team of Ukrainian mice attack the inner workings of a Russian armored vehicle.

x Video showing the problem with mice on the front lines with a Russian 2S9 Nona. https://t.co/2nQiEfsGM4 pic.twitter.com/AxJbAvru2L — Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 3, 2023

Those bombers could have come in handy today. Ukraine did this as part of an agreement with the United States. So we are at least morally obligated to stand by them through this war.

x In 1998 on this day Ukraine started eliminating its airforce arsenal (44 heavy bombers, 1000 cruise missiles) and now we all look back and curse that day pic.twitter.com/8rspNGBWTL — Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz) December 5, 2023

Better options than writing a letter:

1. Surrender to Ukrainian troops.

2. Do a Google search on “How to frag your sadistic commander”

3. See No. 1 above.

x A ChMobik was tied to a tree by his commander for refusing to enter battle. when he was released, he wrote a letter to high command reporting the incident.



The soldier recently recanted his story when he was forced to write a letter claiming the Ukrainians tied him to a tree and… pic.twitter.com/kKWycQrfdI — OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) December 5, 2023

Wow, a track suit! What a stereotypical fabulous gift!

x #Belarus What an eventful family visit! Lukashenka brought his youngest son, Mikalai, to Beijing and presented Xi Jinping with a sports costume. pic.twitter.com/H7F4oK1OtG — Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) December 4, 2023

The Christmas spirit lives in Lviv.

x In Lviv, the city's main Christmas tree was lit



This year's main Lviv Christmas tree is 14 meters tall. It was donated by the residents of Bilogorshche, Josyp and Halyna Panas. The owners say that they love this Christmas tree very much, because it is very beautiful, but it is… pic.twitter.com/ujTxqbxe9H — Devana 🇺🇦 (@DevanaUkraine) December 5, 2023

x 4:44 pm in #Kyiv



I decided to show you Christmas trees I see this year in Ukraine.



This one is in the mall nearby. I usually have #warcoffee there after my workouts. pic.twitter.com/0AwAxpA6c3 — Yaroslava Antipina (@strategywoman) December 5, 2023

Standing guard against marauding masses of mice.

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