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Global Stocktake @ COP28 Portends Horrific 2.5C to 2.9C. Temp Rise [1]

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Date: 2023-12-05

With 2,456 fossil fuel lobbyists attending COP28, the 24-page negotiating text circulating Tuesday represents the first time in almost 30 years of meetings that the role of fossil fuels in driving global warming is mentioned. Way too late in the ballgame, as the Global Stocktake (GST) reveals we are currently on a path to 2.5 to 2.9 degrees increase in global temperatures.

The call to phase-out fossil fuels is included in the negotiating text, which will be finalized early next week, but near unanimous consensus is required for it to be the primary outcome highlighted in the COP’s final document. And Saudi Arabia isn’t on board.

At Tuesday’s talks, a group of top climate scientists issued a joint statement strongly supporting the need for a dramatically accelerated phase-out to keep global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“We need to phase out of fossil fuels completely without a back door,” said New Climate Institute’s Niklas Hohne. “At this conference, there’s actually many back doors being proposed at the briefing table ... mainly for prolonging the life of fossil fuels, and one is to talk about ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.”

Reflecting the contention between the science and the will of big oil-producing nations, The New York Times reports:

“I don’t think we are going to leave Dubai without some clear language and clear direction about moving away from fossil fuels,” said David Waskow, director of the international climate initiative at the World Resources Institute, an environmental research group. But several Gulf state leaders and top oil executives have indicated they are not open to such language. “Absolutely not,” the Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said when asked during a television interview in Riyadh whether his country would support an agreement that called for the phase-down or phaseout of fossil fuels.

Scientists Tuesday also announced that pollution from China and India is largely responsible for CO2 increasing by 1.1% in the last year, when 36.8 billion metric tons were released into the atmosphere, according to the Global Carbon Project.

“It now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5 (degree Celsius, 2.7 degree Fahrenheit) target of the Paris Agreement, and leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2 (degree Celsius, 3.6 degree Fahrenheit) target alive,’’ study lead author Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter said.

The Global Stocktake (GST)

The GST report reveals where the signatories to the Paris Agreement stand concerning their pledges to curtail emissions. What actions they need to take to address shortcomings is the core business at COP28.

“What makes this COP unique as compared to the previous COPs? First and foremost, it’s the Global Stocktake,” EU lead negotiator Jacob Werksman told reporters on Monday. “That assessment has been done, it is clear we are not on a track,” Morgan told a press conference in Dubai last week. With current efforts, she noted, “we will see a temperature rise of 2.5C to 2.9C.” She added: “That is unimaginable." www.politico.eu/...

The UNFCCC Tuesday reported:



“The high-level events are a space for leaders to provide recommendations for strengthening action and enhancing support, in the context of the urgent need to act in this critical decade as impacts of climate change worsen around the world,” said Harry Vreuls, Chair of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice in his opening remarks. -snip- The science from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts, the IPCC warns.

The findings from the global stocktake’s technical report published in September are a stark reminder of the urgency of our situation and a call to action.

Three high-level global stocktake events (on mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation) at COP28 underscored the urgency for increased ambition and climate action on all fronts. The first Global Stocktake High-Level Committee published a summary of the events

Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions

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