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Biden vs. Netanyahu [1]

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Date: 2023-12-05

Secretary Austin on a winning strategy in the Gaza War:

“The lesson is not that you can win in urban warfare by protecting civilians. The lesson is that you can only win in urban warfare by protecting civilians,” "In this kind of a fight, the center of gravity is the civilian population. And if you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat," Austin said, drawing on his experience as a four-star general overseeing the battle against Islamic State militants. "So I have repeatedly made clear to Israel's leaders that protecting Palestinian civilians in Gaza is both a moral responsibility and strategic imperative." - U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin

That might be true in Gaza if what you want to achieve is peace and a two-state solution. But what if your goals are better served if Palestinians embrace terrorism? There is a reason Netanyahu and the Israeli government have funded and supported Hamas since its inception. They wanted to weaken the Palestinian leaders who were willing to recognize Israel and negotiate a two-state solution and replace them with terrorists bent on the destruction of Israel.

Why would Netanyahu fund Hamas when they were firing rockets into Israel and murdering Israelis? Because, with the Palestinian leaders divided and terrorists in charge in Gaza, there would be no peace negotiations and no Palestinian state. If a few Israelis had to die at the hands of Hamas, it was a price Netanyahu seemed willing to pay to destroy any chance for a two-state solution.

Republicans in the USA are willing to accept 48,000+ gun deaths a year, including mass shootings of children, because they think it serves their political agenda. The number of Israelis Bibi was sacrificing for a greater Israel was small by comparison. A manageable number of terror attacks also worked in Netanyahu’s favor, as Bibi posed as the tough guy who could protect Israelis from terrorists (while he was supplying them with funds and support). He could also use it as proof for the West that the Palestinians are not interested in peace.

It was all working according to plan until October 7th. Netanyahu had severely miscalculated. He thought he could prevent Hamas from posing any serious threat. Israeli intelligence knew about Hamas' plan a year before the attack and dismissed the danger. The underestimation of the malignant Frankenstein they were instrumental in creating resulted in a security disaster that took the lives of over a thousand Israelis. Now, with his alliance with Hamas up in flames, Netanyahu is scrambling to find a replacement strategy that will prevent peace and a Palestinian state. Netanyahu’s war plan is built on achieving exactly that outcome, ensuring that there will be no peace that results in a Palestinian state—eliminating Hamas? That’s always just been for the TV cameras. It was true before October 7th, and it’s still true now.

Yes, Israel has both the right and the moral obligation to defend itself. But an effective defense makes Israel more, not less, secure. Netanyahu’s war plan by design will ensure the cycle of violence continues. This will result in making Israel less, not more, secure. As U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pointed out, slaughtering children is not just morally wrong, it is strategically counterproductive. Did President Bush’s invasion of Iraq make the US more secure? No, it did the opposite. Not only was it morally wrong, it was a strategic disaster.

Driving a million people from their homes with no food, water, shelter, or safe destination to go to had nothing to do with reducing civilian casualties or eliminating Hamas. This massive ethnic cleansing will in fact cause more direct and indirect civilian deaths.

In the first days of the war, the Israelis will know a lot. They’ll know about patterns of life, they can do good collateral damage estimates,” said Michael Schmitt, a professor of international law at the University of Reading who served 20 years in the U.S. Air Force as a judge advocate. As Israel’s list of pre-vetted strike locations is depleted, the emphasis of its air campaign is shifting to so-called dynamic targeting, where decisions are made relatively quickly — an approach that has led to higher civilian casualties in other air wars

- Washington Post

With the majority of the population displaced, all pre-war intelligence about civilian patterns of life is useless. The warnings for civilians now to evacuate in the South of Gaza when they have nowhere to go and no means to survive as they are forced to be constantly on the move with no food, water, or shelter are a pretty flimsy cover for slaughtering thousands of innocent civilians. All of Netanyahu’s actions have one goal in mind: the prevention of a Palestinian state, and that includes the way he is prosecuting this war. He hopes that the collective terror he visits on Palestinians will kill Biden’s peace efforts and radicalize a new generation of Palestinians to replace his Hamas allies.

Is Israel being held to a different standard in this war? Ukraine has suffered an October 7th monthly for over a year at the hands of the Russians. Yet aid to Ukraine comes with all kinds of restrictions. If Ukraine began killing civilians at a fraction of the rate Israel does, support and aid for Ukraine would disappear overnight. I guess you could say Israel is held to a different standard. Aid to Israel has had no strings attached, and Israel has been free to operate with impunity.

President Biden has made it clear where the US stands. Contrast what President Biden wrote in a Washington Post op-ed to the positions of Netanyahu:

A two-state solution — two peoples living side by side with equal measures of freedom, opportunity and dignity — is where the road to peace must lead.

Netanyahu’s support for Hamas had one goal. The prevention of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu and his allies will do whatever it takes to prevent this from happening. But what about the Palestinians? haven't they rejected peace deals that include a Palestinian state 3 times? The Palestinians were never offered a state in any peace deal. They were offered an Israeli-controlled South African style Bantustan.

And after this war is over, the voices of Palestinian people and their aspirations must be at the center of post-crisis governance in Gaza. As we strive for peace, Gaza and the West Bank should be reunited under a single governance structure, ultimately under a revitalized Palestinian Authority, as we all work toward a two-state solution.

Netanyahu has already publicly stated this will not happen. The PA will play no role in post-war Gaza, and Palestinians will have no say in what Israel does with Gaza.

I have been emphatic with Israel’s leaders that extremist violence against Palestinians in the West Bank must stop and that those committing the violence must be held accountable. The United States is prepared to take our own steps, including issuing visa bans against extremists attacking civilians in the West Bank.

Netanyahu has done nothing to reign in settler violence. The opposite has happened, and the violence continues to increase. Netanyahu is likely hoping for a violent reaction from West Bank Palestinians so he can extend his war to the West Bank.

If Netanyahu has his way, what Biden envisions will never happen. For his entire career, Bibi has been working to prevent everything President Biden hopes to achieve.

Biden traveled to Israel and threw the full support of the USA behind Israel without reservations, qualifications, or restrictions. Until now, it seems he has felt that would give him more leverage to influence Israel’s actions behind the scenes. But sooner or later, Biden will have to come to grips with the fact that Netanyahu will never agree with anything Biden is calling for and will do whatever it takes to sabotage Biden. That’s a very dangerous position for the President as he now owns Netanyahu’s war, and his ‘ally’ is all too happy to plant a knife in his back. That could be a disaster for American interests in the region and Biden’s electoral chances.

There are now two clear opposing visions for Israel / Palestine. Biden’s vision for “two peoples living side by side with equal measures of freedom, opportunity and dignity” and Netanyahu’s vision for endless war. Biden’s plan will create a secure and safe future for Israel and Palestine. Netanyahu’s dystopian vision will result in mutually assured destruction for both peoples.

For those who claim to hate Netanyahu and then go on to defend all his policies and actions in this war, I would suggest that Israel’s future security would be better served by supporting President Biden’s plan and rejecting Netanyahu’s policies and actions. The one thing that could contribute more to Israeli security than anything else would be the immediate resignation of Netanyahu.

But the US can not dictate to Israel what it can and can not do! That is true, but that does not obligate the US to allow Netanyahu to drag us down with him. After the protests over Netanyahu’s attacks on Israeli democracy, his failures on October 7th, and his handling of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas, what do you think the Israeli electorate's reaction would be if Netanyahu were to rupture Israel’s alliance with the US? Netanyahu is not the only one who can play hardball and Biden will need to use all the tools at his disposal.

Biden’s handling of the Ukraine conflict was a diplomacy and alliance-building masterclass. He is going to need all of that experience, skill, and more to navigate this crisis and to defeat Netanyahu. Make no mistake, this is a zero-sum game between Biden and Netanyahu. One will win, and the other will lose, and the future of Israel, Palestine, and American interests hangs in the balance.

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