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Why DeSantis Will Never Be President [1]

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Date: 2023-12-03

When Gov. Ron DeSantis (F-R) announced his intention to challenge for the Republican presidential nomination, enthusiasm was high. The governor had turned Florida red, enjoyed a monumental reelection victory , and he seemed to be Trump-but-competent, just the candidate to lure independents in an election. DeSantis was even, for a time, closing in on Trump in the polls , with many MAGA supporters signaling that it was time for Trump to step aside and let the new sheriff run things. Yet, seven months since he announced his intention to run for president, the governor’s campaign has gone so badly that not only is he unlikely to beat Donald Trump this time round, we can be fairly certain that DeSantis will never be president.

Source: FiveThirtyEight

DeSantis Was Always Overrated

One of the great myths that allowed DeSantis to rise so high is that he is the man who turned Florida red. DeSantis himself said of his 19-percentage point reelection that, “It was really a fundamental realignment of Florida from being a swing state to being a red state.” A man who could turn Florida red, could possibly do what Trump had been unable to do, and attract independents. In the MAGA world, there is a school of thought that if Trump were more normal, less, well, Trump, not only would he not turn off so many independents, but, he would not motivate so many Democrats to turn out and vote. The thinking went, DeSantis was the guy to get Republicans over the line. However, that thinking is factually wrong. As FiveThirtyEight’s analysis shows, Florida was turning red long before DeSantis ran for governor. Florida was already the recipient of many migrants before DeSantis became governor, Hispanic voters had been shifting right before his tenure, and, despite being a red state, Florida is not that red, it is not a safe Republican state. More importantly, underlying DeSantis’ reelection win is that Democrats simply didn’t turn out to vote. This doesn’t mean that DeSantis is a bad political operator, but it does mean that DeSantis was always unlikely to live up to his billing.

The Charisma Gap

Sarah Cooper’s famous Trump impersonations highlight just how crazy Trump is. Trump is crazy, but he is also hard to take your eyes off. DeSantis, on the other hand, has a different problem, even when he says crazy things, he seems utterly boring. In fact, often, it seems he tries to make up for lacking Trump’s pull by coming up with crazier and crazier policies, from persecuting Disney over its diversity policies, to banning books from libraries just because they have an LGBTQ message. Nobody seriously believes that he is doing all this from conviction, it’s all fake, it’s all theater, but it’s boring theater. The more Republicans, and Americans as a whole, get to know DeSantis, the more they are repelled by him. There is just something false and sleazy about the man. He is prepared to do or say anything to get into power, and he just reeks of desperation as he’s trying to do it, and he’s just boring to boot. Right now, the governor has never been so unpopular. He has earned the moniker, “Awkward Ron” for his struggles with smiling , the awkward way he talks or laughs, his inability to seem, well, human. This is not something he can ever fix.

Source: FiveThirtyEight



Everyone is jumping ship. The Koch network has gotten behind Nicki Haley , someone who most observers dismissed. Leadership changes within his campaign or PACs are so frequent that it is obvious there is no path to victory. If you watched the debate with Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, you will have seen classic DeSantis in action: inhuman, desperate to say anything to win, so desperate to stick to a script that he was lured into this fascinating exchange :

Newsom: You followed science. You followed facts. DeSantis: That's not true. Newsom: You even wore a mask in September.

I don’t know about you, but it isn’t a surprise to me that this guy is turning off his own base. What was he doing debating a guy who isn’t even running for president? In the wake of that disaster of a debate, Trump’s team issued a statement :

“Instead of actually campaigning and trying to turn around his dismal poll numbers, DeSanctus is now so desperate for attention that he’s debating a Grade A loser like Gavin Newsom. At the debate, Ron will flail his arms and bobble his head wildly, looking more like a San Francisco crackhead than the governor of Florida. This isn’t a prediction. It’s a spoiler.”

DeSantis, it is fair to say, does not have the stuff to be president. In fact, my money is on Haley coming in second. DeSantis had his moment in the sun, but it’s over, he’s in free fall now. He will never be president.

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