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Ukraine Invasion Day 647: ‘Winter Is a New Phase of the War’ [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-12-01

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi signaled intent to increase Ukrainian defenses and fortifications around the Ukrainian theater, but notably did not include Zaporizhia Oblast in discussions of ongoing and future defensive measures.

Ukrainian intelligence reportedly damaged another train along a section of the Baikal-Amur Railway on December 1 in an apparent effort to degrade Russian logistics in the Russian Far East. Ukrainian media reported that Ukrainian intelligence sources stated that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) conducted a special operation that damaged another train carrying fuel as it passed over a bridge along an unspecified part of the northern bypass of the Baikal-Amur Railway.[14] The SBU reportedly planned the operation to coincide with the expected rerouting of train traffic following the November 30 explosions in the Severomuysky Tunnel that disrupted a section of the East Siberian Railway in the Republic of Buryatia and damaged a fuel train, which Ukrainian media also connected to the SBU.[15] Russian sources claimed that the explosions on December 1 also occurred in the Republic of Buryatia and that six fuel tanks were completely or partially damaged.[16] Russian outlet Baza reported that travel is still blocked through the Severomuysky tunnel.[17] Ukrainian media reported that Ukrainian intelligence observed the Russian military using the railway to transfer equipment and supplies, although there are no indications that the December 1 explosions damaged the bridge along the Baikal-Amur Railway and will cause long-term disruptions.[18] The Baikal-Amur Railway and the Eastern Siberian Railway are the two major railways in the Russian Far East and connect Russia to China and North Korea, both countries on which Russia is increasingly relying for economic and military support to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.[19] understandingwar.org/...

x Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the war with Russia is in a new stage, with winter expected to complicate fighting after a summer counteroffensive that failed to produce desired results due to enduring shortages of weapons and ground forces. https://t.co/UHDZi3zZpU — PBS NewsHour (@NewsHour) December 2, 2023

With more than 300,000 Russian servicemen dead and wounded in Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine, you might think his propagandists would exhibit some humility when discussing the utility of war as a policy tool. You’d be wrong. Instead, the Kremlin’s mouthpieces have interpreted signals of Western hesitation in the funding of their Ukrainian ally as a weakness. Putin’s people have seized on hints that the West is pressing Ukraine to consider negotiations to formalize its division as a green light to go much further. Why not grab even more, they ask? And if these sound like the typical statements of over-heated spokespeople, bear in mind that they broadly accord with Russia’s December 2021 demands that the US effectively abandon NATO’s newer members, like the Baltic states and Poland. It is also worth remembering that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was likewise discussed and openly plotted for years on state-run media, after which it actually happened. Appearing on the Own Truth show on NTV last Friday, writer Dmitry Lekuh said that Poland is “the next candidate to be thrown under Russian tanks.” He asserted that “dividing Poland between Russia and Germany is our national pastime.” cepa.org/... x Give the Kremlin an Inch and it Will Take Half of Europe



Signs of Western hesitation over support for Ukraine encourage Russian propagandists to speculate on which country might be the next victim.



My latest for @CEPA: https://t.co/eUH7V7QmRu — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) December 1, 2023

x Video reported to be the fire resulting from the second explosion on the Baikal-Amur railway line of Russia. I do not see a bridge, though.#OSINT pic.twitter.com/CTgkwVIigp — OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) December 1, 2023

The wealth of the richest Russians has increased by $38.6 billion since the beginning of the year, according to Bloomberg Billionaires Index data.

Key Takeaways: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu continues to falsely characterize Russian offensive efforts in Ukraine as part of an “active defense” in an effort to temper expectations about the Russian military’s ability to achieve operationally significant objectives.

Ukrainian intelligence reportedly damaged another train along a section of the Baikal-Amur Railway on December 1 in an apparent effort to degrade Russian logistics in the Russian Far East.

Russian President Vladimir Putin officially changed the composition of the Russian Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights (HRC) on December 1, removing several members and appointing a prominent anti-opposition media figure.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that a second group of Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip arrived in Chechnya on December 1, possibly partially funded by his daughter’s “Children of Chechnya - Children of Palestine” organization.

Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)’s disproportionate allocation of drones among frontline units and poorly-executed grassroots drone production campaigns are impacting frontline unit effectiveness.

Russian sources complained that Russian soldiers' continued use of personal electronics and messaging apps in frontline areas is jeopardizing Russian operational security (OPSEC).

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on December 1 that the Russian military has recruited over 452,000 personnel between January 1 and December 1, 2023.

Russian occupation officials continue to set conditions for the deportation of Ukrainians to Russia under various vacation schemes. understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - DEC 1



■ Strikes above 7-day average, fewer engagements but more settlements under artillery fire

■ 3rd highest daily troop losses & biggest month so far

■ Major equipment losses, record for special equipment losses matched



📈 https://t.co/gIvHoZnmxF pic.twitter.com/RbnEGF5ewi — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) December 1, 2023

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on December 1 and recently advanced northeast of Kupyansk. Geolocated footage published on November 30 shows that Russian forces advanced southeast of Vilshana (15km northeast of Kupyansk).[44] Russian sources claimed that heavy fighting is ongoing near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces also attacked near Lyman Pershyi (12km northeast of Kupyansk) and in the Serebryanske forest area.[45] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Synkivka and northeast of Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk); near Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove), near Torske (14km west of Kreminna); and in the Serebryanske forest area (11km south of Kreminna).[46] Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo reported that Russian forces somewhat reduced the intensity of attacks in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions and that Russian forces are regrouping in the Lyman direction.[47] Fityo added that Russian forces have a large stockpile of glide bombs and conduct strikes with these glide bombs on the Kupyansk-Lyman frontline. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets claimed that Russian forces made tactical advances west and south of Kreminna.[48] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka, Yampolivka (16km west of Kreminna), and the Serebryanske forest area on December 1.[49] understandingwar.org/... understandingwar.org/... understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut on December 1 but did not make any confirmed advances. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Russian forces captured unspecified positions north of Bohdanivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut), northeast of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut), and north of Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut).[50] A Russian milblogger claimed on November 30 that Russian forces are advancing southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut).[51] Russian sources claimed on November 30 and December 1 that Russian forces were advancing towards Bohdanivka from Khromove and Berkhivka (3km north of Bakhmut).[52] ...The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.[55] Ukrainian Ground Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo stated that Russian forces have intensified operations along the entire eastern front.[56] The spokesman for a Ukrainian unit reportedly deployed in the Bakhmut direction stated on November 30 that Russian forces transferred elements of the Russian 98th and 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Divisions from the Lyman direction to positions between Khromove and Bohdanivka to reinforce Russian forces in the area, and the Russian MoD published footage on December 1 claiming to show elements of the Russian 106th Guards VDV Division operating near Soledar.[57] The Ukrainian spokesperson stated that Russian forces are also equipping units in this area with armored vehicles. Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov posted footage claiming to show the “Shustrogo” detachment of Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz and elements of the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Luhansk People’s Republic [LNR] 2nd Army Corps) operating near Klishchiivka.[58] Russian forces continued offensive operations near Avdiivka on December 1 and made confirmed advances. Geolocated footage published on December 1 indicates that Russian forces advanced east and southeast of Stepove (3km northwest of Avdiivka).[61] ... The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults south of Novokalynove and near Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke (7km west of Avdiivka), Sieverne, and Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).[66] Mashovets claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked and recaptured unspecified positions near Avdiivka.[67] understandingwar.org/... understandingwar.org/...

x #Avdiivka offensive equipment loss numbers as of 01 December 2023.



In summary: 273 RU losses vs. 20 UA losses



Spreadsheet showing the losses in detail: https://t.co/GHawlVOd2T pic.twitter.com/jNw4Z61smV — Naalsio (@naalsio26) December 1, 2023

x Russian state propagandist (and a “professor” of Theory & History of State & Law) Sergey Karnaukho says there is “nothing human” in Ukraine.



Another Russian “professor” dehumanizing an entire people and inciting genocide. Russian academia is not well.https://t.co/2pQ1FjPrFL pic.twitter.com/sQufThVMai — Vlada Knowlton 🇺🇦 (@VladaKnowlton) December 2, 2023

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