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What is really happening at the Finnish-Russian border? [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-11-30
Basic facts to start with: There is no migration crisis at the Finnish-Russian border, the real crisis is the willingness of Petteri Orpo's right-wing government to disregard the principles of the rule of law. Mike Johnson and his cronies can only dream of the Finnish right-wing government's cynical decision to keep only two and then only one border crossings open for migrants riding bicycles through the snow to the border in the wintry arctic North of Finland.
Footnote: Composition von Orpo's Cabinet: National Coalition Party 8, Finns Party 7, Swedish People's Party of Finland 3, Christian Democrats 1.
¶
Here are some basic figures on asylum applications in Finland this year: let's not get caught up in the hysteria of the Finnish tabloids and their commenters, who were already speculating about hundreds of thousands foreigners pushing at their border, carted up in swarms of Russian buses. From Helsingin Sanomat, November 27, 2023:
By the end of October this year, a total of 3’500 asylum applications had been lodged in Finland. Since September, about 280 asylum seekers have arrived at the eastern border, said Markku Hassinen, Deputy Chief of the Border Guard, at a press conference on Thursday.
Reception centers for migrants from Russia have been prepared, but have not yet been put into operation.
¶
Finnish press reports on the closure of the Finnish-Russian border, quoted from Helsingin Sanomat, November 30, 2023: KALEVA recalls that the government's previous plan to close the entire eastern border was overturned by a negative assessment by the Ombudsman. «The change of position was perhaps due to the fact that, according to the Border Guard, the risk of an escalation of the threat to the border is obvious – Whether this was a very exceptional situation and whether there was indeed a serious risk to national security will be debated.» «There is now a kind of battle of attrition at the border between the Finnish authorities, the asylum seekers and the Russian authorities managing the harassment operations. The latter can be expected to make some nasty new moves. The outcome of the battle remains to be seen.» LAPIN KANSA writes that there have been signs of fractures in the consensus on the full border closure. «The disagreements among our political leaders have probably been noted with satisfaction in Russia. One can only speculate about the Kremlin's intentions, but if the state-led border operation was intended to cause social confusion in Finland, which likes to present itself as a virtuous constitutional state, it has been a success.» «The border closure has been difficult to justify legally, as the flow of arrivals has remained small but constant. Now the closure has been completed, but this may also be part of Russia's objectives. It may reinforce the image of a hostile, anti-Russian West fed to the people by the Kremlin.» ¶
Finnish-Russian neighborly relations have been shattered, and the fact that Finland has reacted extremely cautiously to the destruction of the gas pipeline and data cables and that no member of the government has ever blamed Russia for it did not change this. Finland has now joined NATO, supported Ukraine with arms supplies, sanctioned Russia and intensified defense cooperation with the United States.
Russia has reacted to this new situation by creating predictable tensions on the common border. The fact that asylum seekers are being instrumentalized for this purpose is nothing new, as we know from the comparable tensions on the Belarusian-Polish border last year. The flow of migrants is polarizing Western societies in a way that favours Russia, and not just in Finland.
The following quotes are from an editorial by Anna-Liina Kauhanen, Editorial Writer at Helsingin Sanomat, from November 30, 2023, «Russia rules with fear, Orpo's government responds with fumbling»:
Russia is using Finland's weaknesses against Finland. An open society is vulnerable because not everything can be protected. Finland's critical infrastructure is easy to damage and diplomats can be employed all the time with all kinds of things. There are shortcomings in cyber preparedness. Previously, Russia did not allow people without visas to enter the Finnish side of the border zone. It was a Russian decision that suited Finland well. Russia effectively prevented people from seeking asylum on the eastern border. Until it stopped. It is easy for Russia to organise a flow of migrants that Finland cannot stop. Responding to this situation is legally very complicated. Politically, it seemed clear that the border could not be left open.
Finland was by no means unprepared for this situation, but what was surprising was the approach taken by the right-wing government of Petteri Orpo (National Coalition Party):
It is good that the Finnish leadership decided to respond to Russia's provocation. Still, the response looked like messing around. In justifying its difficult choice of action, the government blamed the Deputy Chancellor of Justice – although it seemed that the Deputy Chancellor of Justice and the Chancellor of Justice had to assist the Border Guard and the government towards justifications that would allow all border crossings to be closed for two weeks. Finance Minister Riikka Purra (Finns Party) wrote in her blog that the government must be able to act despite the views of the law enforcement officer. The temptation to use border security to make domestic policy won out over wisdom, even though the opposition was lining up to support the government. The Swedish People's Party of Finland, for its part, claimed to have been ignorant of the preparation of the decisions. It is difficult to get a psychological initiative against the Russian. The situation can be frustrating. The government and individual politicians tried to be both tough and cautious at the same time, because Western societies do not tolerate failure and defeat – like bodies in the snow on the Finnish border.
Russia will continue to send migrants to the border, and Finland will try to respond to the Russian moves after the border closure scheduled for December 13. The combined impact of these decisions is difficult to calculate.
In addition, public opinion has changed significantly since 2015-2016: there is a new cynicism in the air. This change is reflected, for example, in the general questioning of the right to asylum for those who cross the border and the assumption that migrants have economic motives:
This cynicism reflects a shared analysis of Russia, but also an erosion of public trust. The rule of law does not benefit from an atmosphere in which the Minister believes that action can be taken at any cost. This is not a battle between good and evil, with the right taking on the wrong, but a geopolitical struggle between the great powers. Finns understand this very well. As well as the fact that Finland is again a pawn in the game. Understandably, many find that intolerable. What is also new is that there is no bilateral way between Finland and Russia to resolve the issue of instrumentalised immigration. The eastern border was closed, but the legal way in which this was done is still a long way to go. The daily lives of Finns were not disrupted, and Finland is not in crisis, but confidence in the government's respect for international obligations and the rule of law was shaken.
¶
UNHCR, Nordic and Baltic Countries, November 30, 2023: UNHCR urges Finland to protect the right to seek asylum:
[END]
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