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Examining Potential Scenarios for the 2024 Presidential Election [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-11-21

We’ve been hearing constantly lately about how Biden is doing poorly in the polls against Trump and others, about how his approval ratings are low, and so on. A lot of the political punditry and even many democrats are starting to say the Biden campaign should start getting worried, etc.

However, if we think systematically and realistically about what could actually happen next year, the situation isn’t so dire for Biden, even if he remains unpopular.

I’ve been thinking a lot about what could happen and have created this outline of possible ways I see things playing out.

I will start with several assumptions, mention a couple of variables, and from those I will outline 7 possible scenarios I see happening next year.

Assumption #1: At least 1 of Trump’s trials will have concluded by the time of the GOP Convention in July — probably the January 6th trial. He will be convicted on at least one of the charges filed against him. Thus, by the time of the GOP convention he will be a convicted criminal.

Assumption #2: At least 2 of Trump’s trials will have concluded by Election Day ; he will be convicted on at least some of the charges filed against him, and will be sentenced in at least 1 of those 2 trials. If at least 1 of those sentences is for prison, I wish I could assume he’d be in prison by Election Day, but it’s much too early to make such an assumption.

Assumption #3: In spite of grumblings about his age, Joe Biden will nonetheless be the nominee at the Democratic convention in August.

Assumption #4: Efforts to keep Trump off the ballot in many states fail. I honestly have no opinion whether the current efforts to do so will succeed or not, but as of this writing, in Michigan, Minnesota and Colorado, courts have ruled he can stay on the ballot, so I’ll use that as my working scenario going forward.

Variable #1: Given Assumption #1, will the GOP nominate Trump anyway? And if they don’t, what will Trump do afterwards?

Variable #2: Will Kennedy, West, or any other 3rd party candidates stay in the race? And will they be able to get on enough states’ ballots to make a difference? And if they stay in the race and get on most or all states’ ballots, will they fade as we get toward the election?

Above we have 4 assumptions, 2 of which deal with Trump’s trials and potential convictions. Note the trials and convictions I listed are minimums: We could have 2 completed trials by the GOP Convention but I assume just 1 as a minimum. I also suppose it’s possible that 1 or more of the first 2 of his trials either end in a hung jury or acquittal, but IMO those are outside chances that can probably be dismissed. If there is a hung jury at all, I presume they will be hung on only some of the charges and either convict or acquit on the others. Realistically I’m expecting mixed verdicts in all his trials; I’d be (pleasantly) surprised if he is convicted on all counts. But mixed verdicts still include some convictions, so even if he’s only convicted on, say, 1/3 of the counts, he will still be a convicted criminal.

Given the assumptions and variables listed above, we should think carefully and systematically about what could realistically happen next year. Of course it’s possible some unexpected things could happen, but it’s impossible to predict unexpected events so we just have to go with what we know now.

Listed below are the scenarios I’m thinking could happen, given the assumptions and variables above. If there are any scenarios you can think of not listed below, let me know in the comments.

Scenario #1: A Straightforward Biden-Trump Rematch. In this scenario, Kennedy and any other significant 3rd party candidates either quit the race, or don’t make it on many states’ ballots, and/or just sort of fade away, and as a result have little effect on the main race. The GOP nominates Trump regardless of his conviction(s), so we end up with a pretty straightforward Biden-Trump rematch. In this comment here I pointed out, according to the recent NY Times swing state poll, this will be a problem for Trump: If he is convicted and sentenced to prison, he loses a ton of support. The average swing if Trump is convicted in the 6 swing states in the NY Times poll is 14.66 percentage points . If we assume that's the average swing in all states — let’s say Biden’s margin of victory in every state improves by 14.66 percentage points compared to his 2020 results — then Biden also picks up the following states. It would be a Biden blowout. states — let’s say Biden’s margin of victory in every state improves by 14.66 percentage points compared to his— then Biden also picks up the following states.It would be a Biden blowout. Kansas S.C. Alaska Iowa Ohio ME-2 Texas Florida N.C.

In this scenario, Kennedy and any other significant 3rd party candidates either quit the race, or don’t make it on many states’ ballots, and/or just sort of fade away, and as a result have little effect on the main race. The GOP nominates Trump regardless of his conviction(s), so we end up with a pretty straightforward Biden-Trump rematch. In this comment I pointed out, according to the recent NY Times swing state poll, this will be a problem for Trump: If he is convicted and sentenced to prison, he loses a ton of support. all Scenario #2: GOP Does Not Nominate Trump, but Trump Launches Independent Bid. This one could very well be the most … entertaining? exciting? lively? of the scenarios. Like scenario #1, any major 3rd party candidates have either bowed out or faded away. In this scenario, Trump is a convicted criminal by the time the GOP convention starts and somebody besides Trump is nominated for president. Here I would expect a veritable war at the convention, and whoever does nab the nomination undoubtedly will do so by a narrow margin. It might be DeSantis, or Haley, or who-knows-who. This scenario is potentially the biggest risk for Biden, except that … will Trump acquiesce to the will of the GOP convention and stay out of the race afterwards? I have a hard time believing he will — after all, his 2 main reasons for running again in the first place are to: 1) try to stay out of prison, and, 2) get revenge on democrats for “stealing” his re-election in 2020 and indicting him for numerous crimes. If he decides not to continue his run for the presidency at all, he completely forgoes trying to achieve any of those goals at all. I have a real hard time believing Trump would just quit like that. Since he cares more about his own personal situation than sacrificing anything for the good of the party, I’d say the odds are better than 50-50 he would launch an independent bid. If he launches an independent bid, he will almost surely get on the ballot in most, or even all, states. And when he does that he will split the conservative vote with whoever the GOP nominee is, and Biden will, once again, win in an electoral blowout. I would imagine a popular vote might go something like this — and the percentages might not even vary much among the states: Biden: 40% GOP nominee: 30% Trump: 30%

This one could very well be the most … entertaining? exciting? lively? of the scenarios. Like scenario #1, any major 3rd party candidates have either bowed out or faded away. In this scenario, Trump is a convicted criminal by the time the GOP convention starts and somebody besides Trump is nominated for president. Here I would expect a veritable war at the convention, and whoever does nab the nomination undoubtedly will do so by a narrow margin. It might be DeSantis, or Haley, or who-knows-who. This scenario is potentially the biggest risk for Biden, except that … I have a hard time believing he will — after all, his 2 main reasons for running again in the first place are to: 1) try to stay out of prison, and, 2) get revenge on democrats for “stealing” his re-election in 2020 and indicting him for numerous crimes. If he decides not to continue his run for the presidency at all, he completely forgoes trying to achieve any of those goals at all. I have a real hard time believing Trump would just quit like that. Since he cares more about his own personal situation than sacrificing anything for the good of the party, I’d say the odds are better than 50-50 he would launch an independent bid. If he launches an independent bid, he will almost surely get on the ballot in most, or even all, states. And when he does that he will split the conservative vote with whoever the GOP nominee is, and Biden will, once again, win in an electoral blowout. I would imagine a popular vote might go something like this — and the percentages might not even vary much among the states: Scenario #3: GOP Does Not Nominate Trump, Trump Stays Out Of The Race Afterwards. As I said above, I do not think this would be likely if Trump is not nominated, but I suppose you never know. I would say this scenario poses the biggest threat to Biden. In this scenario, once again any major 3rd party candidates either drop out of the race or fade away, and we get a straightforward Biden-DeSantis, Biden-Haley or Biden-Whoever match. In my debates with MAGAs online, I’ve learned that many of them would actually just sit out a race like this altogether (“Trump or nobody!”), or even put in Trump as a write-in candidate. In that case, Biden could still have a chance, but it would likely be close. However, the fact Biden’s worst-case scenario is one which has a low probability of occurring, and in which Biden still might have a decent chance of pulling it out anyway, goes to show what a good position he’s currently in, in spite of so many recent bad polls.

As I said above, I do not think this would be likely if Trump is not nominated, but I suppose you never know. I would say this scenario poses the biggest threat to Biden. In this scenario, once again any major 3rd party candidates either drop out of the race or fade away, and we get a straightforward Biden-DeSantis, Biden-Haley or Biden-Whoever match. In my debates with MAGAs online, I’ve learned that many of them would actually just sit out a race like this altogether (“Trump or nobody!”), or even put in Trump as a write-in candidate. In that case, Biden could still have a chance, but it would likely be close. However, the fact Biden’s worst-case scenario is one which has a low probability of occurring, and in which Biden still might have a decent chance of pulling it out anyway, goes to show what a good position he’s currently in, in spite of so many recent bad polls. Scenario #4: A Complete Mess With Trump. Given the large amount of dissatisfaction with both Biden and Trump, I (unfortunately) consider this to be a high-probability scenario. This scenario is the same as #1, except that Kennedy and/or West and/or any other notable 3rd party candidates do indeed stay in the race, make it onto the ballots in most or all states, and don’t fade away. Trump gets the GOP nomination, even with the convictions. I would think there could be 4 or 5 candidates who get more than 10% of the vote in the general election in this scenario, or at least 5%. Guessing the outcome of this could be tricky; much would depend on whether a viable left-center, 3rd party alternative to Biden emerges, though I’d doubt one would. It’s possible Trump could eke out a narrow electoral victory in this scenario, but I would doubt that as well. In this kind of scenario I would guess the most likely outcome would be a sizeable Biden victory … even while getting only 40% or even 35% of the popular vote in most states. Below I’ve listed what seems to be reasonable results for this scenario. Notice that, since these would only be “typical” percentages, Biden might eke out wins in some red states. It might also be possible Trump ekes out a win here and there in one of the “less blue” blue states, but I don’t think there would be very many of those. I would also think that, even in deep red states, there would still be a lot of republicans who would refuse to vote for a convicted felon; those people would probably gravitate to Kennedy or a Libertarian Party candidate (the latter of which I didn’t include here). A typical blue state percentage might be something like this: Biden: 45% Trump: 35% Kennedy: 10% West and/or Other: 10% And a typical red state percentage might be something like this: Biden: 35% Trump: 40% Kennedy: 20% West and/or Other: 5% Swing states would be somewhere in-between the two above.

Given the large amount of dissatisfaction with both Biden and Trump, I (unfortunately) consider this to be a high-probability scenario. This scenario is the same as #1, except that Kennedy and/or West and/or any other notable 3rd party candidates do indeed stay in the race, make it onto the ballots in most or all states, and don’t fade away. Trump gets the GOP nomination, even with the convictions. I would think there could be 4 or 5 candidates who get more than 10% of the vote in the general election in this scenario, or at least 5%. Guessing the outcome of this could be tricky; much would depend on whether a viable left-center, 3rd party alternative to Biden emerges, though I’d doubt one would. It’s possible Trump could eke out a narrow electoral victory in this scenario, but I would doubt that as well. In this kind of scenario I would guess the most likely outcome would be a sizeable Biden victory … even while getting only 40% or even 35% of the popular vote in most states. Below I’ve listed what seems to be reasonable results for this scenario. Notice that, since these would only be “typical” percentages, Biden might eke out wins in some red states. It might also be possible Trump ekes out a win here and there in one of the “less blue” blue states, but I don’t think there would be very many of those. I would also think that, even in deep red states, there would still be a lot of republicans who would refuse to vote for a convicted felon; those people would probably gravitate to Kennedy or a Libertarian Party candidate (the latter of which I didn’t include here). Scenario #5: A Complete Mess “Without” Trump. This scenario is the same as #2, except, as in #4 above, Kennedy and any other major 3rd party candidates do not bow out and do not fade away. At the GOP convention they nominate somebody besides Trump, so it’s technically “without Trump.” But as in scenario #2, Trump gets all butthurt and launches an independent bid, so in the end it’s not really “without Trump.” This would be the messiest of all, but it could also be the biggest Biden electoral victory of all as the conservative vote would be split up among 3 or even 4 candidates. Imagine Biden getting 35% of the national vote, yet garnering 450 electoral votes. You would see the national popular vote look something like this — and I should add that even a lot of red states’ percentages would look something like this: Biden: 35% Trump: 25% GOP nominee: 25% Kennedy: 10% West and/or Other: 5%

This scenario is the same as #2, except, as in #4 above, Kennedy and any other major 3rd party candidates do not bow out and do not fade away. At the GOP convention they nominate somebody besides Trump, so it’s technically “without Trump.” But as in scenario #2, Trump gets all butthurt and launches an independent bid, so in the end it’s not really “without Trump.” This would be the messiest of all, but it could also be the biggest Biden electoral victory of all as the conservative vote would be split up among 3 or even 4 candidates. Imagine Biden getting 35% of the national vote, yet garnering 450 electoral votes. You would see the national popular vote look something like this — and I should add that even a lot of red states’ percentages would look something like this: Scenario #6: A Complete Mess “Truly” Without Trump. This is a combination of scenarios #5 and #3. The GOP does not nominate Trump, and he stays out of the race afterwards and the other 3rd party candidates do not drop out or fade away. For the same reason I don’t consider #3 to be a good possibility, I don’t consider this one to be a good possibility either: Trump is unlikely to stay out of the race even if he doesn’t get the nomination. But also as in #3, you never really know. Strange things can occur. This one would be hard to predict, and it would also depend on who the GOP nominates. Also like #3, it would probably be close. If we assume the main 3rd party candidate is Kennedy, it seems (according to most recent polls I’ve seen), Kennedy gains nearly equal support from both erstwhile Biden and erstwhile GOP voters (but again, this really will depend on who the GOP nominates), but maybe a bit more from the GOP. Also like #3, this one could be a risk to Biden — though I think maybe not as much as #3. I think the national vote might look something like this: Biden: 42% GOP nominee: 42% Kennedy, West and other 3rd party: 16%

This is a combination of scenarios #5 and #3. The GOP does not nominate Trump, and he stays out of the race afterwards and the other 3rd party candidates do not drop out or fade away. For the same reason I don’t consider #3 to be a good possibility, I don’t consider this one to be a good possibility either: Trump is unlikely to stay out of the race even if he doesn’t get the nomination. But also as in #3, you never really know. Strange things can occur. This one would be hard to predict, and it would also depend on who the GOP nominates. Also like #3, it would probably be close. If we assume the main 3rd party candidate is Kennedy, it seems (according to most recent polls I’ve seen), Kennedy gains nearly equal support from both erstwhile Biden and erstwhile GOP voters (but again, this really will depend on who the GOP nominates), but maybe a bit more from the GOP. Also like #3, this one could be a risk to Biden — though I think maybe not as much as #3. I think the national vote might look something like this: Scenario #7: A Straightforward Biden-Trump Rematch, But The People Don’t Care About Voting For a Convicted Felon And Elect Trump Anyway. This would be the same as #1, but instead Trump actually wins. It is the MAGA fantasy scenario. If this actually happens it will prove the complete stupidly of the average American voter, but I don’t think it would happen. Nonetheless I’m listing here because it is a potential scenario.

I think it is most likely that:

The GOP nominates Trump, even with criminal convictions. Given that Trump would likely run as an independent candidate if he isn’t nominated, the GOP effectively doesn’t have much choice anyway. Either they nominate him, or he spoils whoever else they nominate. Third party candidates fade … but maybe only somewhat.

In that case, a blend of scenarios #1 and #4 would seem to be the most probable, and Biden would win by a comfortable margin (though maybe not a complete blowout). Maybe on the order of 350-400 electoral votes.

I would also like to add that the number of convictions Trump has could also be a big influence. For example, in the Jan 6 case, Trump has been indicted on 4 counts. If he’s only convicted on 1 and either acquitted or gets a hung jury on the other 3, then voters might give him some slack. On the other hand, if he’s convicted in all 4, that’s going to be tough for the majority of voters to overlook. Generally speaking, I’d say the more convictions Trump gets, the worse his odds of winning anything will be. I would also guess that voters are most likely to overlook any convictions Trump gets in the hush money scheme. The other 3 cases will be more important.

Another issue is, Trump is going to spend a huge amount of time in trial next year. The public is going to be hearing about his trials incessantly, almost all year long. Undoubtedly there will be plenty of details revealed during the trials that will be stunning in their lawless audacity (this is Trump we’re talking about, after all). Some of these could cause Trump to lose some support even sans any convictions. On the other hand, a lot of other people are likely to get sick of hearing about them and tune them out after a while. This latter category is almost certainly going to consist largely of: 1) Hard-core Trump voters (who likely won’t pay any attention to the trials at all), and, 2) Tuned-out people who are probably less likely to vote anyway. Thus, the trials themselves are likely to cause Trump to lose a little bit of support (but not too much).

A lot can happen between now and election day next year so some of this is likely to be off. But that’s why I examined a range of potential scenarios instead of just listing a couple of my favorites. In any case, you can see that in most of these scenarios, Biden is in a pretty good position, even if he is still unpopular by election time next year. The reason for that is because the Trump era GOP is so utterly dysfunctional they’re bound to do the stupidest things they can possibly do. As long as Biden can maintain at least a 40% level of support, he’ll be in decent shape as the GOP and Trump will undoubtedly shoot themselves in the foot.

Let me know what you think.

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