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Can Biden Make the Impossible Possible in Israel/Palestine? [1]
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Date: 2023-11-19
Netanyahu’s decades-long policy of colluding with Hamas to prevent peace and a two-state solution blew up in his face on October 7th. For decades, Netanyahu and his band of racist thugs have presented themselves as uncompromising on security and the guys who could keep Israelis safe. The guy who based his brand on keeping Israelis safe turned out to be a complete security disaster. The tough talk about burning Gaza to the ground and possibly nuking Gaza, etc., has continued but coming from the clowns that presided over the worst security failure in recent Israeli history, it may not be having the same effect on the Israeli public as it used to have.
In a Washington Post editorial, President Biden has laid out the American position on what needs to be done:
A two-state solution — two peoples living side by side with equal measures of freedom, opportunity and dignity — is where the road to peace must lead.
There must be no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, no reoccupation, no siege or blockade, and no reduction in territory. And after this war is over, the voices of Palestinian people and their aspirations must be at the center of post-crisis governance in Gaza.
As we strive for peace, Gaza and the West Bank should be reunited under a single governance structure, ultimately under a revitalized Palestinian Authority
I have been emphatic with Israel’s leaders that extremist violence against Palestinians in the West Bank must stop and that those committing the violence must be held accountable. The United States is prepared to take our own steps, including issuing visa bans against extremists attacking civilians in the West Bank — Opinion Joe Biden: The U.S. won’t back down from the challenge of Putin and Hamas
Needless to say, that puts Biden in direct opposition to the Netanyahu coalition's stated plans for post-war Gaza and the West Bank.
The Arab States
80% of the population of the Persian Gulf is Shia, with Iran being the seat of Shia power and Saudi Arabia’s regional rival. The Shia are Saudi Arabia’s largest religious minority at 12%, and they are concentrated in the oil-rich North East, making up a majority of the population in al-Qatif and half of the population of Al-Ahsa. The Saudis see this situation as a grave security risk.
The Saudis were so desperate for a security agreement with the US that they were ready to toss the Palestinians overboard to get an agreement. The talks that involved Israel, the USA, and the Saudis had no Palestinian representative. If Saudi Arabia had signed, the other Gulf states would have not been far behind.
Now, with images of dead Palestinian children on Arab TV screens every day, those deals are probably on hold. After the Arab Spring, even dictatorships in the Arab world ignore the sentiment of the Arab street at their peril.
The horrific civilian casualties in Gaza have put our relationship with the Arab states and the Arab public in danger. That is a critical strategic region for the USA, and we cannot afford to give Russia and China the advantage there. It also may put Michigan's electoral results in question in the presidential election, which is critical to the future of democracy in the USA. Having said that, if Biden follows up the words in his editorial with action, this could quickly change. This situation is both very fluid and very dangerous, but I’m betting that Biden will continue to exceed expectations.
The I/P issue has been a boat anchor around the necks of Arab governments, and they would jump at the chance for any resolution that has the assent of Palestinians. Equally important, the Gulf states would open their wallets to ensure its success. Netanyahu sent Mossad chief Yossi Cohen and the top officer of the Israel Defense Forces in charge of Gaza, Herzi Halevi, to Qatar to ensure billions would continue to flow through Israel to Hamas in Gaza. Biden’s plan could now see that those billions and billions more from other states are redirected to the cause of peace and a two-state solution.
Biden’s Economic Corridor Plan
That is also the idea behind the innovative economic corridor that will connect India to Europe through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, which I announced together with partners at the Group of 20 summit in India in early September. Stronger integration between countries creates predictable markets and draws greater investment. — Opinion Joe Biden: The U.S. won’t back down from the challenge of Putin and Hamas
The success of this is a central component to countering China’s Belt and Road and Putin/Wagner’s efforts to destabilize the Mideast and Africa. A sustainable peace agreement would supercharge this effort and bring stability and prosperity to a region without either. This also provides an economic incentive for all parties to make sustainable peace a priority.
Zero Tolerance for the Enemies of Peace
We stand firmly with the Israeli people as they defend themselves against the murderous nihilism of Hamas.
The Palestinian people deserve a state of their own and a future free from Hamas. — Opinion Joe Biden: The U.S. won’t back down from the challenge of Putin and Hamas
The purpose of the unholy alliance of Netanyahu and Hamas was to block any possibility of peace. Because peace would result in a two-state solution. If we are serious about peace, then there can be no compromise with the enemies of peace. Hamas has to go, and Netanyahu and his band of violent racist thugs have to go. Gaza must be cleared of Hamas, and the West Bank must be cleared of the settlers. The settlements in the West Bank exist for one reason - to prevent a Palestinian state. They are the reason so many now say any possibility of a Palestinian state is dead.
I disagree. One million Palestinians were just driven from their homes with no provision for food, water, and shelter in the ‘interests of peace and security”. If that can be justified, then the relocation of 700,000 settlers to Israel is perfectly reasonable in the interests of peace and security.
Although there are 7.5 million Palestinians and 7 million Israeli Jews living between the Jordan River and the sea, a two-state solution would not be dividing the land equally based on population. The West Bank and Gaza are 2,401 sq miles, Israel is 8,355 sq miles. Israel would get more than triple the land in any peace deal. Given that fact, there is no justification for the existence of the settlements. There can not be one standard for Israelis and another for Palestinians.
But Israelis will never accept the end of settlements, you say? Public sentiment can turn on a dime, and if it was possible to end the violence and insecurity that they believed was real? I think the majority on both sides might embrace it. What is the alternative? Israeli Jews are not going to accept a single democratic state where their safety is dependent on a Palestinian electoral majority—a sentiment I can completely understand. The only alternative is the two-state solution. The fanatics in Hamas and the settler movement have held the region hostage long enough. Their parties should be outlawed, just as the Nazi party was outlawed after WW2 in Germany.
The occupation of Germany and Japan was about a decade long, and it ended in both states being sovereign and fully in control of their destinies. The Allies did not move in 100s of thousands of settlers to displace the defeated populations. The Israeli occupation has lasted 57 years, and there is no end or Palestinian state in sight. It’s indefensible and an obstacle to peace. It's time that the US put an end to tolerating the intolerable. Benny Gantz (it is expected he will replace Netanyahu) should understand that the US will no longer tolerate the settlements. A freeze is not enough. US citizens who are now living in occupied territories should be facing legal action. It’s time to get serious about peace.
This is also critical in ensuring that the Israeli government does not create 10x more terrorists than it kills in Gaza. What happens post-war will determine whether those who survive the terror of the war end up without hope and live solely to avenge their siblings, parents, friends, and grandparents. Or they see actual light at the end of the decades-long nightmare and a real opportunity for a different future free of Hamas and Israeli oppression.
A Better Future?
In Biden's editorial, one can see the components of a sustainable and secure future for the entire Middle East. Maybe the trauma of current events will provide Biden with the opportunity to break the endless cycle of violence and turn Israelis and Palestinians away from the demagogues of hate and nihilism that have dominated the past decades to a better future. It's a balancing act that will require a master statesman and historic leadership. Biden almost overnight revived a dead NATO and European alliance to defend freedom and peace in Europe. This will be an even greater challenge, but Uncle Joe somehow, in the end, always seems to rise to the occasion. Let’s hope, for the world’s sake, he can pull this off.
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