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Ukraine Invasion Day 631: mechanized maneuver in Avdiivka difficult for both sides [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-11-15

The current positional war is not the result of modern warfare that can only be changed with a technological or tactical revolution. Neither does it rest on a permanent parity in military capacity between Russia & Ukraine regardless of Western support to Kyiv. There are reports of RU using chemical weapons in the Swativ & Bakhmut areas, usually chlorpicrin, several times.

Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi recently articulated the main factors that have brought positional war to the conflict and made mechanized maneuver difficult or impossible. The recent Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, among others, have shown that the Russians are suffering equally from these problems. Zaluzhnyi’s assessment tracks with what many other observers of the war have also seen. The most salient of these factors include: The pervasiveness of reconnaissance drones makes large-scale surprise impossible, and the effective creation by both sides of reconnaissance-strike complexes that merge reconnaissance and strike drones with artillery and other long-range systems makes visible concentrations of vehicles prohibitively dangerous; Russian electronic warfare, particularly jamming of GPS signals and drone communications, on an unprecedented scale severely hinders Ukraine’s ability to make full use of Western-provided precision munitions that rely on GPS and undermines the effectiveness of Ukraine’s own drone systems; Russian defensive works prepared over the course of many months and supported by extremely deep and dense minefields preclude rapid mechanized maneuver; Limited Ukrainian air defenses and Ukraine’s lack of a modern air force allows Russian manned aircraft to operate in close support of front line units and to target Ukrainian tactical reserves and logistics nodes; Limited Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities preclude the effective operational-level interdiction necessary to isolate the battlefield from Russian operational and strategic reserves; and Inadequate numbers of tanks and armored vehicles, coupled with uncertainty about the future availability of replacements, require Ukraine to husband its mechanized forces rather than accepting the losses inherent in concentrated assaults in the current state of the battlefield. The Russians, in turn, suffer from many of these problems as well, but also suffer from their inability to distribute capabilities that give them important advantages widely across the theater. The density and effectiveness of Russian EW systems are inconsistent across the front, allowing the Ukrainians to continue to use drone-based reconnaissance-strike complexes to disrupt major Russian offensive operations, for example. Russian manned air operations, on the other hand, are sufficient to blunt Ukrainian advances in some areas but not sufficient to prevent Ukraine from moving reinforcements into threatened sectors or to open avenues of advance for prepared Russian mechanized attacks. The current inability of the Russian defense industrial base to support replacement-level production of tanks and armored vehicles has forced the Russian command to conserve vehicles and reduced many Russian units to light infantry-style attacks. Russian forces also face periodic localized artillery shortages that disrupt their offensive and defensive operations. understandingwar.org/...

Key Takeaways: The European Union (EU) appears poised to ban the export of precision machine tools and key weapons manufacturing equipment components to Russia.

Denmark will reportedly start inspecting and potentially blocking Russian oil tankers in an effort to enforce a price cap on Russian oil and the European Union’s (EU) insurance regulations.

The Ukrainian government reached a deal with international insurers that will provide affordable coverage to vessels carrying grain and other critical food supplies through the Black Sea corridor for civilian vessels, amid continued Russian efforts to deny navigation through the corridor.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated during a meeting with Russian election commission representatives on November 15 that the Russian government will suppress any foreign or domestic election interference.

Recent Russian opinion polls indicate that roughly half of Russians maintain support for the war in Ukraine and for Russia to engage in peace negotiations.

Yandex NV - the Dutch holding company of Russian internet technology company Yandex - reportedly aims to sell all its Russian assets by the end of 2023, allowing the Russian government to further increase its hold over the Russian information space.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

A Russian insider source claimed that Kremlin-created Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation, which presented a limited number of former Wagner fighters with the certificates of their combat veteran status, is coercing former Wagner fighters into signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

Russian and occupation authorities continue efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian students in occupied Ukraine. understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - NOV 15



■ 🇺🇦 strikes well above average, 🇷🇺 strikes & engagements below

■ Record high 7-day troop losses

■ Massive equipment losses, record high artillery & downed Su-25

■ Oryx: Removal of duplicates, 30-day 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 ratio at 4.1x



📈 https://t.co/QjOZvTDVZ9 pic.twitter.com/RWmK5MyGSj — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) November 15, 2023

Location: Paraskoviivka (Парасковіївка), Donetsk Oblast - north of Bakhmut - near 48.67139, 38.00699 https://google.com/maps/place/ @UAControlMap Russian ammo depot in Paraskoviivka hit by 26th Artillery Brigade

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on November 15 and made confirmed advances. Geolocated footage published on November 14 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced east of Ivanivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk) and west of Volodymyrivka (19km northwest of Svatove).[22] ...The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the Kupyansk direction near Synkivka, Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk), and Ivanivka and in the Lyman direction near Nadiya (16km west of Svatove) and the Serebryanske forest area.[25] understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued to attack along Bakhmut’s northern and southern flank on November 15. Geolocated footage published on November 14 shows Russian forces operating on Bakhmut’s southwestern outskirts, and Russian forces have likely been operating on the approaches to the Bakhmut prior to November 14.[28] ...The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled all Russian assaults near Bohdanivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut), Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.[35] Ukrainian Ground Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo stated that Russian forces are likely preparing to launch new assaults by intensifying artillery fire around Bakhmut.[36] Ukrainian forces launched localized attacks south of Bakhmut on November 15 and made confirmed territorial gains. Geolocated footage published on November 15 indicates that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced southeast of Toretsk (23km southwest of Bakhmut).[37] ... Another Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces are unsuccessfully counterattacking near Klishchiivka.[39] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continue to launch assaults on Bakhmut’s southern flank.[40] understandingwar.org/... Russian sources made unconfirmed claims that Russian forces continued advancing around Avdiivka on November 15. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from their positions near the waste heap north of Avdiivka and that Russian forces seized at least 60 percent of the industrial area south of Avdiivka.[41] ...The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks east of Novokalynove (11km northwest of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske and near Avdiivka, Sieverne, Tonenke, and Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka).[48] understandingwar.org/... understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/15/2206020/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-630-mechanized-maneuver-in-Avdiivka-difficult-for-both-sides?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

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