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Republicans Fail to Learn Lessons on Abortion [1]

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Date: 2023-11-12

Going into the elections in Ohio, Virginia and Kentucky, the New York Times/Siena Poll showed Trump leading President Biden in five of six battleground states, and suggested that the president’s multicultural coalition was “fraying”. The writing seemed on the wall: a Red Wave was coming. Once again, the red wave was revealed as a Red Mirage and once again, Republicans were punished for the US Supreme Court striking down federal reproductive rights. Those who imagine that the president is bound to lose to Trump should take a lesson: the fight for reproductive rights will haunt Republicans. There’s no better test case for this than Virginia, where Republicans tried to have their cake and eat it.

Americans Stand Against Making Abortion Illegal

Few Americans support making abortion illegal, and that includes Republicans. Those Republicans who favor making abortion illegal, are a minority even within their own party. They face a backlash from suburban women from within their party who are outraged by their party’s stance on abortion. So, even in Red States, people keep choosing abortion rights and standing up for Democratic values.

Youngkin’s Gamble

Knowing this, Virginia’s governor, Glenn Youngkin, went for a half-in, half-out, have-your-cake-and-eat-t ban on abortion after 15 weeks . His calculation was that, by avoiding the extremes of a complete ban, he could stem the tide of outrage about the party’s stance on abortion. That calculation proved disastrous, with Democrats winning a majority of seats in the House of Delegates’ and sustaining their Senate majority. That success was won by focusing on suburban voters in Richmond, and highlighting the differences between Republicans and Democrats on abortion.

Even before the Supreme Court struck down Dobbs, polling had shown that Democrats were more motivated than Republicans to vote on this issue. This was also true in Virginia. A September 2023 survey by the University of Mary Washington and Research America, showed that Democrats were more motivated to vote based on abortion, than Republicans, with 70% of Democrats citing it a very important issue, compared to just 35% of Republicans. Crucially, 54% of Independents said that abortion was a very important issue for them.

Virginia is one of many once-reliably Republican states that have been turning purple. Youngkin obviously knew this, and he built his political career by trying to build a coalition of MAGA and suburban Republicans. This was obviously a very difficult thing to do. This balancing act was unsustainable. Youngkin’s compromise was still too extreme for suburban voters. MAGA Republicans cannot wrap their heads around the fact that 65% of AMerica’s 72.2 million women aged between 15 and 49, use contraception. They cannot wrap their heads around the fact that even Republican women have abortions .

2024: A Red Mirage?

Yet, rather than conceding that they are wrong on the issue, MAGA Republicans keep pushing the issue and hurting their party. That is the gift that they have given Democrats. The polls may say Democrats are struggling, but if the party can highlight the differences between Republicans and Democrats, the 2024 Red Wave may once again turn into a Red Mirage. Until Republicans learn the lesson that supporting bans on abortion is foolhardy, they will continue to lose. As Ray Collins said to Orson Welles in Citizen Kane: “If it was anybody else, I’d say what’s going to happen to you would be a lesson to you. Only you’re going to need more than one lesson. And you’re going to get more than one lesson.”

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/12/2205334/-Republicans-Fail-to-Learn-Lessons-on-Abortion?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=latest_community&pm_medium=web

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